As the NFL continues to evolve, the importance of the passing game continues to grow exponentially. There is no greater bang for buck than a big time wide receiver, just ask Mike Wallace. As the NFL becomes more pass heavy with every passing season, a successful aerial attack can make horrendous teams relevant. Consider at the Saints, without Marques Colston, Drew Brees, and Jimmy Graham, they would have been one of the NFL's worst teams a season ago. From a fantasy perspective, the wide receiver slots are the second-most important asset to your fantasy team.
Draft experts agree that drafting a running back first followed by two wide receivers is the best way to ensure fantasy dominance. For the upcoming season, there is a wide variety of talent across the board, but maybe not in the places you're accustomed to seeing those value picks. Take the New England Patriots, just a few short seasons ago, Bellichek's bullies consisted of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Tom Brady; the latter threw for the most touchdowns in NFL history, and the duo of Welker and Moss galloped into fantasy greatness. This season things are different, as Welker is now a Bronco, and the newer weapons on the Patriots are spending more time in surgery (Rob Gronkowski) and prison (Aaron Hernandez) than on the practice field. Below is a list of pass-catching prodigies that will guarantee you a spot in your league's fantasy Mount Rushmore.
Tier A
Where else to start but with the best receiver in football, the man who broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yardage record, Megatron aka: Calvin Johnson. The Detroit Lion's holy savior is the pinnacle of receiving excellence, and will once again place himself above the rest in the upcoming season. As long as Matthew Stafford remains healthy expect Calvin to once again take home the title of the NFL's best wideout. Second on my list is the man with the second most targets in the NFL last season. If this were a game of Madden, Jay Cutler would be shopping for a new "B" button. Brandon Marshall caught at least eight passes eight different times and recorded career highs in touchdowns, receptions, and yards. Cutler to Marshall is a match made in heaven and Marshall owners should benefit greatly from Cutler's pass-happy tendencies.
One of the biggest question marks from Chicago a season ago was the lack of a secondary receiver, not to mention a shoddy offensive line. Second-year man Alshon Jeffery should be able to solve that particular quandary, and bring the Bears' offense to the next level in the process. Third of the top five comes out of Cincinnati, A.J. Green is one of the most explosive weapons in football, and possesses tremendous size as well. Perhaps the best well-rounded wide out in the business, the third year receiver will only go as far as third-year quarterback Andy Dalton will take him. Though Cincinnati is another team without a true second wide receiver, expect Green to continue his reign of terror in a secondary near you.
With only two spots left in the top five, Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys must fit here. Bryant is just 24 years old, but recorded 1,382 receiving yards with 12 touchdowns a season ago. While character issues are often a concern for the third-year receiver, Bryant is a true home run threat, and should continue his ascension as one of the league's best. People forget that Larry Fitzgerald almost won the Arizona Cardinals a Super Bowl in 2011, and that's why he rounds out my top five for 2013. Without a quarterback a season ago Fitzy struggled, recording less than 800 yards with just four touchdowns. Carson Palmer is Larry Fitzgerald's prince charming, and should return one of the league's best to his rightful statistical group in 2013.
Tier B
Dropping from Tier's A to B is fairly insignificant in the grand scheme of things, yet the rankings are different for a reason. Tier A signifies possible first-round value, so consider Tier B talent a steal anywhere but your first pick. Starting with the Atlanta Falcons dynamic duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones, this tier is ripe with quality talent. White and Jones need no introduction into the fantasy spectrum, as the Falcons' offense is poised to once again be one of the best in football. The addition of Steven Jackson should create more room in the secondary for the aforementioned wide outs, and their only negative could be that they are stealing points from one another! Percy Harvin was the best player in football for the nine weeks he was able to suit up a season ago. Harvin joined fellow ex-Viking Sidney Rice as a member of the Seahawks during the offseason, and the duo should benefit from their time together, in addition to playing with one of the best young quarterbacks in football: Russell Wilson. While Seattle will certainly have a rush oriented offense this year, expect Harvin to get his fair share of targets as well.
Atlanta is not the only team with two wide outs in tier two; the Denver Broncos will have the best offense in football in 2013. Both Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker will line up across the hash marks from each other in 2013, and will benefit from Peyton Manning ‘s superior gunslinging ability. A year ago, Thomas and counterpart Eric Decker finished fifth and eighth in receiving a season ago, and with the addition of Welker, expect the Broncos offense to near record highs in the passing game. After recently signing a deal to stay with the New York Giants, Victor Cruz remains one of the league's true deep threats. Cruz's lone shortcoming is his ability to remain healthy, yet should he play 16 games the Giants will watch a lot of salsa dancing in the end zone in 2013. The ageless wonder, Andre Johnson has been the best receiver in the NFL for the last decade.
The only man since Jerry Rice to lead the league in receiving yardage for three straight seasons, Johnson continues to defy father time and remain as one of the game's greats. Andre has three detractors going into the upcoming season: age, lack of touchdown production, and lack of a true No. 2 receiver in Houston. Johnson is no longer one of the greatest at the position, but he is far from irrelevant should he remain healthy. Josh Freeman ‘s favorite target from 2012 returns in 2013 with another year of chemistry under his belt. Vincent Jackson barely missed a step after departing from San Diego last offseason, and has added another dimension to the Tampa offense. The Buccaneers could be a surprise wild-card in 2013, and Vincent Jackson will have a large part in their crusade if they truly hope to contend in the NFC South.
Drew Brees’ favorite receiver returns in 2013 after back to back thousand yard receiving seasons. Expect Marques Colston to remain in form for the upcoming year. As long as Brees keeps throwing, Colston will keep catching, and that is a match made in fantasy football heaven. For years fantasy owners have ignored Kansas City as a viable fantasy market, and for good reason. But the arrival of Alex Smith in a Chiefs uniform has changed things. Dwayne Bowe is in line for a spectacular fantasy season, should Smith live up to the hype. Keep in mind that as Smith goes so does Bowe, but you could do much worse from a early-mid round pick than KC’s masterpiece.
For the final slot in Tier B, let’s venture to the steel city. The Pittsburgh Steelers will rely heavily on Antonio Brown in the upcoming season. After losing Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins in free agency, Brown will have to fill the void left by the veteran speedster. The Steelers will likely use a rush heavy attack led by rookie Le’Veon Bell but with Ben Roethlisberger between the hash marks expect the Steelers to air it out plenty, just watch out for that illegal touching.
Tier C
In grade school, having a “C” next to your name usually meant poppa was taking off his belt. In terms of fantasy football, a “C” just means you could be a great value pick in a middle round. Reggie Wayne the favorite target of Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck from a season ago, so why is he ranked so low? Wayne finds himself amidst a sea of quality targets including T.Y. Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bey. While both DHB and Hilton will be primarily used as deep threats, they will surely impede upon Wayne’s targets in the upcoming year. Expect Wayne to continue to be a spectacular fantasy asset, but beware of buying too early. The same could be said for the Redskins’ Pierre Garcon . Garcon has massive home run potential, and learned much about his craft from his time in Indianapolis. Garcon tore ligaments in his foot in week one of the 2012 season, which cost him half of a potentially productive year. If Garcon can stay healthy, he will go as far as RGIII’s shredded beef brisket of a left knee will take him.
As Aaron Rodgers goes so will the Green Bay Packers, especially, Jordy Nelson James Jones . The Packers shored up their run game in the draft acquiring rookies Eddie Lacy Johnathan Franklin , in April’s draft. Regardless, expect the Packers to employ one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league, and both Nelson and Jones will benefit from such a system. Nelson and Jones find themselves in tier C due to the depth on the Packers’ roster, not due to lack of ability. The Packers’ main problem this year may be their lack of a true number one wide receiver, after the departure of Greg Jennings to rival Minnesota.
The Carolina Panthers’ offense has been a tremendous quandary of late, and the team has struggled to find its offensive identity. Panthers’ Head Coach Ron Rivera has vowed to find the team’s offensive rhythm this season, and that rhythm should be set by veteran receiver, Steve Smith . Smith has had over 1,000 yards receiving in each of the past two seasons, and should continue to thrive as the focal point of the Panthers’ passing attack.
If Victor Cruz is Eli Manning salsa, Hakeem Nicks has to be his chips. When healthy, Nicks is one of the top targets in football, and is a tremendous possession asset. Nicks had health issues plague him throughout the 2012 season, and will look to 2013 to return to his form from the 2011 season in which he had over 1,000 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. I can’t imagine fantasy football being an especially fun pastime in Jacksonville, unless it is used as a distraction. For years, the only fantasy relevant Jaguar has been Maurice Jones-Drew, but that will change in 2013. Cecil Shorts III is primed for a big year if he can find anyone to throw him the ball. Shorts finished with slightly less than 1,000 yards receiving a season ago, and scored seven touchdowns. With his blazing speed, Shorts is the type of player that can win a fantasy matchup with one touch, making him the perfect FLEX weapon.
Anquan Boldin was traded for a sixth-round pick. This must still seem like a horror movie for Ravens fans, and equivalent to the jubilation prevalent at the end of “It’s a Wonderful Life” for fans from the Bay Area. With Colin Kaepernick at the helm and a plethora of weapons to choose from expect Boldin to flourish as a part of one of the most balanced offenses in the league. As a true red-zone threat and possession dynamo, Boldin could be one of the steals of the 2013 fantasy draft period. Replacing Boldin in Baltimore as Joe Flacco's No. 1 will be speedster Torrey Smith. Smith’s blazing quickness and tremendous top speed makes him a homerun threat on every play.
What is concerning about Smith’s role in Baltimore is the lack of depth in the receiving corps. Sure the Ravens are traditionally a run-first team, and yes Dennis Pitta is emerging as an excellent vertical force, but without a true number one wide receiver, Smith’s value could plummet if the secondary’s focus shifts to preventing the long ball; or as Raven’s fans know it, Torrey Smith’s bread and butter.
Buffalo’s Stevie Johnson has experienced the plight of Torrey Smith; for years Johnson has been the only viable target for the Amish Cannon, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is gone, and replacing him will be the underwhelming Kevin Kolb, or the untested E.J. Manuel. While former USC Trojan Robert Woods will certainly take some of the attention away from Johnson and running back C.J. Spiller , it is likely that the Bills’ offense will regress in 2013, much to new head coach Doug Marrone’s chagrin.
Fantasy owners know what to expect from Johnson, six or seven touchdowns with just over a thousand yards receiving. While this is solid production from a mid-level pick, steer clear of Johnson through the early rounds, especially if Buffalo’s quarterback competition remains murky.
Miles Austin and Mike Williams are both playing second fiddle to virtual superstars, both have slightly above average quarterbacks, and thus, deserve slightly above average draft positions. Both Austin and Williams will be fantasy relevant in 2013, but that seems to be the extent of their value especially in the case of Austin, who has had tremendous trouble staying healthy in his career. Yet another tier C member who has a history of injury is Eagles’ wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Maclin will only go as far as whichever quarterback wins the competition in Philadelphia, so steer clear of Eagles’ wide outs in the early rounds. Maclin’s speed and route running ability makes him a homerun threat, and a value pick in PPR formats, just be wary of his lack of durability.
Staying in Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh Steelers’ wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders could make a break into fantasy relevancy in 2013, but his role will be dictated by the effectiveness of the passing game, and the Steelers’ aging defense. If the Steelers find themselves playing from behind more often than they are used to in 2013, a projection that could quickly become reality, Sanders could be a tremendous value in a FLEX position.
So far, tier C has been a group of men playing second fiddle, and that buck won’t stop here. Lance Moore finished 19th in wide receiver points in 2012, and plays in one of the most pass happy offenses in football. Moore is a great pick for depth in later rounds, and should continue to produce as part of Drew Brees’s pass-happy armada. Kenny Britt has been mired in injury and disciplinary problems throughout his short NFL career. Yet, the Titans’ top wide out is a tremendous talent when he can actually make it on the field. Taking Britt is a risk, he could explode with the development of Jake Locker and find himself as a top level wide receiver, or more likely he could have another boom and bust season, making fantasy owners feel like they’re on a cheap wooden roller coaster that’s line was more fun than the actual ride. Beware of Kenny Britt in 2013, but he could be worth a late round pick.
Ladies and gentlemen we have an Oakland Raider sighting! Denarius Moore is the first and only Raider on this list, and his season completely depends on the development of whichever quarterback the silver and black send onto the field from day one.
Matt Flynn could finally get his chance, or lose out yet again to rookie Tyler Wilson or revitalized Terrell Pryor. Regardless of his quarterback, Moore is a tremendous deep threat, with good hands and solid quickness making him a FLEX pick worth making. Rounding out tier C is another pass catcher held together with balsawood and bubblegum. Danario Alexander will lead the Chargers' receiving corps in 2013 and will look to make Philip Rivers relevant again.
Alexander came out of virtually nowhere in 2012 and was a boon at the FLEX position for many owners. Alexander recorded seven touchdowns in only ten games played. If Alexander can continue his production alongside the underperforming Malcom Floyd ,and the ancient Antonio Gates, the Chargers could have an above average passing attack.
Sleepers
For the 2013 season, the best gambles at the wide receiver position could come in the form of rookies. Tavon Austin could be the next Percy Harvin, should the Rams choose to utilize him and his incredible quickness in the correct way. Robert Woods could emerge as a tremendous talent in Buffalo alongside Stevie Johnson.
Yet, the most likely candidate for a breakout rookie season resides in Houston in the form of DeAndre Hopkins. Practicing and playing alongside one of the greatest pass catchers to ever walk the planet cannot hurt one’s development, expect Hopkins to thrive in a well-balanced, and very talented, offense in Houston. Isn’t everything supposed to be bigger than Texas?
Another young standout wide out with breakout capability in 2013 is another St. Louis Ram. Chris Givens possesses tremendous speed and good hands, and can run almost any route. If Sam Bradford is going to be the next big thing as Rams’ fans hope, Givens will catch a lot of passes in 2013. Former Vikings teammates Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice will be reunited in a wide receiving corps in 2013, and that could pay dividends for the Seahawks.
Rice was a great value pick based on his average draft position a season ago, and should continue to pleasantly surprise fantasy owners in the upcoming year. At 6’4” Rice is an excellent target to throw to, and an even better compliment to the speed of Harvin. While the Seahawks were last in passes per game in the NFL in 2012, I would not be surprised to see a shift in offensive philosophy in 2013 to better utilize such a formidable receiving duo.
While Heyward-Bey will certainly cut into his targets, T.Y. Hilton exploded onto the scene a season ago; catching seven touchdowns and recording 861 yards receiving. With both Hilton and Luck heading into their second seasons respectively, expect the Colts’ dynamic duo to prosper with another year of chemistry to build on.
The Arizona Cardinals haven’t had any reasonable candidates for fantasy relevance in years, but all of that could change with the arrival of Carson Palmer. But who will be the yin to Larry Fitzgerald’s yang? Andre Roberts stunned fantasy owners last season by having a viable season recording almost 800 yards receiving in addition to scoring seven touchdowns. Roberts could thrive in Arizona this year. The only downside here is the status of second year player, and former Cardinals’ first round pick Michael Floyd. If Floyd continues to struggle in his development, expect Roberts to fill the void left by the second year man. For the Chicago Bears’ a different second year receiver is looking to take his game to the next level. Alshon Jeffery is a speedster with excellent hands who could turn the Bears into a viable contender.
Jeffery will pair excellently with pro-bowler Brandon Marshall, as both will look to stretch the field on a game-by-game basis. If Jeffery can turn into a viable option for Chicago, the Bears’ offense could pay big dividends for fantasy owners. If Kenny Britt flounders in Tennessee yet again, expect sophomore Kendall Wright to pick up the slack.
A season ago, Wright had only 626 yards matched by four touchdowns. Keep in mind that Tennessee’ quarterback Jake Locker floundered as well, and missed much of the season due to injury. The trifecta of Britt, Wright, and recent first rounder Justin Hunter could come into fantasy relevance in 2013, but will only go as far as Locker takes them. The Titans have one of the best projected offensive lines in football, so expect Locker to have plenty of time to get the ball out to his upstart receivers. It is about time to name a Patriot that isn’t in danger medically or judicially on this list.
Aaron Dobson could be the biggest steal of your fantasy draft should he fall into later rounds. Consider the fact that Tom Brady’s top five targets from a season ago have all departed New England or are expected to start the season on the physically unable to perform list (Gronk) and you have a spot for Dobson. Of the two rookies vying for actual starting positions, Dobson and Josh Broyce, Dobson is the better-rounded of the two, with excellent hands, route running ability, and enough edge speed to break away from most defenders. Danny Amendola is as fragile as macaroni art, so do not expect him to play all 16 games. No one knows who Tom Brady will throw the ball to in 2013, but Dobson is a solid bet.
Another rookie who could contribute from the get-go is San Diego’s Keenan Allen. Allen could easily oust Maclom Floyd for the starting slot across from Danario Alexander, or replace either of the oft-injured-duo. Robert Meachem did not develop well into the Chargers’ plans of a year ago either, so don’t be surprised if Allen takes over the slot receiving duties as well. Allen is a big receiver with quick hands, and only fell so far in the draft due to concerns over a nagging PCL injury. Other players to watch this season include Brandon LaFell of Carolina, Andrew Hawkins and Mohamed Sanu of Cincinnati, Brian Quick of the Rams, and Joe Morgan from New Orleans. This crop of young talent has the ability to step up in a time of need, and will see playing time in 2013. Take a gamble late on a young wide receiver in a good setting; it will be worth your while.
Busts
Wondering where Mike Wallace Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola were on this list? Look no further; the “bust” tag only applies to players who will be drafted before their accurate value.
Wallace heads to a team with a startling lack of a secondary, and a quarterback almost certainly headed for a sophomore slump. Jennings has taken his talents from the frozen tundra, to a team with one of the worst quarterbacks in football, Christian Ponder. Jennings will start opposite Cordarrelle Patterson who is not on this list for the same reason Jennings landed here; Ponder. The Vikings will play a run heavy style of football, meaning more room in the secondary, but I just don’t buy Ponder, or backup Matt Cassel as viable starters in this league.
Jennings will be reached for in many leagues due to his productive past, but Christian Ponder is no Aaron Rodgers. In Amendola’s case, it his injury history that is worrisome. Like Jennings, Amendola will be reached for in the early rounds. If you are looking for a 10 week player, Amendola is your guy, but I’m steering clear of him until he plays a full 16 game season. My first advice for fantasy owners regarding the New York Jets would be to ignore them completely from a passing standpoint. Santonio Holmes has the possibility of being relevant should Geno Smith beat out Mark Sanchez for a starting job. However, if Sanchez is the quarterback of the Jets, avoid drafting their receivers at any cost, including Stephen Hill. Sure, we know the Lions will pass the ball more than most other teams, but that does not mean every receiver on their roster is worth taking.
Veteran Nate Burleson may find himself the odd man out in Detroit this year as he is the oldest wide out on the roster. Ryan Broyles is working his way back from an ACL injury, but Burleson didn’t play a good chunk of last season due to a broken leg. While Burleson may be worth a gamble late, there is a good chance that age has finally caught up with the seasoned veteran. Rumors have even circulated that the Lions are so unsatisfied with their wide receiving corps that they have brought in veterans Laurent Robinson and Steve Breaston as possible fill-ins for Burleson. This is a situation worth monitoring, and likely won’t be resolved until the end of training camp.
Brian Hartline had a breakout year in 2012 as he recorded over 1,000 yards receiving, but only managed to find the end zone once. Hartline’s 2012 performance should be considered a fluke as he doubled his yardage total from a season before. The Dolphins believe they are a contender this year, but if the goal is contention in one’s fantasy league, don’t jump on the Dolphins’ number two; it is not always a good idea to take your talents to South Beach. The man who will start across from Torrey Smith in Baltimore is no Anquan Boldin.
While Jacoby Jones possesses lightning quick speed and is a terror in the return game, he may not be able to contribute in the receiving game on a weekly basis. The Ravens have a startling lack of depth at the wide receiver position, which contributed to Jones’ starting slot. Be wary here, as Jones has much more bust potential, than boom. If he wasn’t jumping into pools, he was rapping with snoop. DeSean Jackson returns in Eagles’ green in a contract year. Jackson’s stats have declined in four straight seasons, and there is an injury concern here too. Wrapping up the bust category will be the ageless veteran, Santana Moss. Moss isn’t getting any younger, there are question marks surrounding the health of his starting quarterback, multiple young receivers ready to seize his slot, and a run-heavy offense in the works fantasy owners must be wary of Santana Moss in 2013.
Wide receivers can be the lifeline of a fantasy owner’s season. Landing a sleeper could be a saving grace for one’s FLEX position. From Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson to De’Andre Hopkins and Aaron Dobson, there is killer depth in the receiving corps this season.