In 2012, Chris Johnson was the definition of inconsistency and the cause of a lot of headaches for fantasy owners. On the other hand, Doug Martin came in as a rookie and established himself as a top-tier fantasy back. While both had very different 2012 fantasy seasons, how will they compare in 2013?

Chris Johnson, Running Back, Tennessee Titans

Johnson has become one of the most frustrating fantasy players in the league. While the athleticism and talent are there, the numbers have not been. In 2012, Johnson managed to rush for 1,243 yards on 276 attempts and reached the end zone six times. While the numbers were enough to rank Johnson as the 13th overall back, his inconsistency made it difficult to leave him as a starter in fantasy lineups. Johnson truly was the ‘Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde’ of 2012. There was seemingly no “middle-ground,” for Johnson. He played in six games where he was held to under 50 yards on the ground and zero touchdowns. As bad as those six games were, Johnson had five games where he totaled five rushing touchdowns, and ran for 120- plus in each. This leaves many fantasy owners wondering; Which Johnson will show up in 2013?

First, it should be noted that the Titans have done everything they can to solidify their offensive line. The additions of players such as Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre should help Johnson post more consistent fantasy numbers. Even better for Johnson, is the fact that the Titans have seven games this season against defenses that ranked 26th or lower in average rushing yards per game and nine total games against rushing defenses ranked 15th or lower in the same category. The biggest question for Johnson and the Titans this year is how will the newly acquired Shonn Greene factor into the offense. While Johnson’s contract and inconsistency could mean the end is near for Johnson in Tennessee, I see Greene as more of a change of pace than starter for the Titans. While Greene may steal goal line carries from Johnson, I view Greene’s presence as a positive for Johnson. Overall, I feel that Johnson will improve upon his 2012 season, and prove himself to be a more reliable option for fantasy owners.

Prediction for Johnson: 1,350 yards rushing, 8 rushing TD’s, 250 yards receiving, 1 receiving TD

Doug Martin, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As a rookie, Martin was a fantasy steal for many owners. Martin ran the ball 319 times for 1,459 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He also added 472 yards receiving and one touchdown, and finished his season as the No. two ranked fantasy running back. The main question with Martin is will he be able to reproduce his rookie numbers in 2013. With the additions of Rob Ryan, defensive coordinator, in New Orleans and defensive linemen, Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, in Carolina, Martin could struggle against division opponents. Against Ryan’s Cowboys in 2012, Martin only managed 53 yards on the ground and came away with no touchdowns. Facing Ryan twice a year could hurt Martin in fantasy. Similarly, in two games against Carolina, Martin finished with zero total touchdowns. The additions of Lotulelei and Short could easily make it four career games for Martin without a touchdown against the Panthers.

Despite the challenges Martin will face in 2013, he should be able to post strong fantasy numbers. While I do not see Martin posting another 251 yards rushing and four touchdowns in a single game (Week 9 against Oakland), I suspect Martin’s 2012 season was no fluke. Also, the Buccaneers will play eight games against defenses that allowed an average of 120 –plus yards on the ground per game. Martin may not finish as the second- ranked fantasy back in 2013, but he should still finish in the top ten.

Prediction for Martin: 1,400 yards rushing, 10 rushing TD’s, 325 yards receiving, 2 receiving TD’s

In Comparison:

Overall, expect Martin to put up better fantasy numbers than Johnson in 2013. Martin is a more consistent runner and provides more versatility in the passing game than Johnson. However, do not count Johnson out, as 2013 could prove to be a pivotal year in his career. Martin is a low-risk, high- reward player in fantasy this coming year, and should be taken early in all drafts. Johnson is much more of a risk than Martin, but Johnson could be a great fantasy back for owners willing to take a chance.