There aren’t many running backs in the NFL that are more exciting to watch than Kansas City Chiefs' running back Jamaal Charles and Buffalo Bills' running back C.J. Spiller. They’re also both consensus top five fantasy football running backs in 2013.That’s probably not a coincidence. They are two of the most talented running backs in the NFL, so who should be ranked higher for fantasy purposes this season? Let’s take a look at each of them.
C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Forget the tape; Spiller’s sheer numbers are extremely impressive alone. Pro Football Focus graded Spiller as the No. 2 running back overall behind only the best in the game, Adrian Peterson. And he did it in 26 percent less total snaps. Spiller also led the league in PFF’s elusive rating with a 94.6 (second was Peterson with 72.0), and was second in yards after contact per attempt – again, behind only Peterson.
However, there’s one problem: Fred Jackson. Although Jackson is aging (he’s 32-years-old), he may be taking a cluster of carries from Spiller. He’s fully healthy and is taking part in offseason activities with the team, which is good news for Jackson, but bad news for Spiller. Nevertheless, Spiller is expected to be a three-down back this year, including “short-yardage, third-down or red-zone situations”, per the Buffalo News. Expect Spiller to be given more carries this season, but Jackson to still have a role. On what should be a run-first team with a rookie quarterback, Spiller, however, should still be getting plenty of carries, enough to be a top 10 back if he can stay healthy.
2013 Stat Projection: 243 carries, 1,496 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
Jamaal Charles, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs
No Thomas Jones, no injuries, no Peyton Hillis. It’s time to see the Chiefs heavily feature Charles. Not only is Charles free, but the entire Chiefs offense has been given new life with the acquisition of quarterback Alex Smith, the re-signing of wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, and a new head coach in Andy Reid. This offense is suddenly exciting.
But last season, Charles’ carries were extremely inconsistent. For example, in Week 2, against Buffalo, Charles had six carries for three yards. He came back the next week with 33 carries for 233 yards and a touchdown. In Week 15, Charles had nine carries for 10 yards. The following week, he had 22 carries for 226 yards and a touchdown. However, that was under Romeo Crennel, who was fired in the offseason. Now the Chiefs are under Reid, but does the outlook for Charles change?
LeSean McCoy tended to have a bit of a bumpy ride in Philadelphia under Andy Reid, even when he carried the ball 273 times in 2011. But Charles says the new offense is the “best thing that ever happened to me”, according to the Kansas City Star. He says he’s expected to get a lot more catches, and that he can play the McCoy or Brian Westbrook role, according to ESPN. Bottom line: he’s excited for the new offense, and that certainly can’t be a bad thing for his fantasy value.
2013 Stat Projection: 260 carries, 1,578 yards, 7 rushing touchdowns
In Comparison
Both of these players have a bit more risk, especially week-to-week, than your average pick, but they can win a week for you. Neither is going to carry the ball as much as Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, but they have the upside to be an elite running back. I’m taking Charles for one reason: no competition for carries. Sure, the team has rookie Knile Davis, but he’s not a legit threat to take carries from Charles, anywhere on the field. Jackson proposes a legit threat to Spiller if he can stay healthy, regardless of what the coaches have said. I’m taking Charles as the No. 2 overall running back in drafts today, and feel all that more confident in PPR leagues.