This class of wide receivers is one of the deepest in recent memory, but it lacks a consensus elite talent like Julio Jones or A.J. Green. No team is going to trade a first-round pick (much less two) to move up for a wide receiver this year. So it’s a deep class, but not especially top heavy.
It’s also difficult to nail down a consensus top player at the position. Many people feel Cordarrelle Patterson should be at the top because of his otherworldly athleticism, but others balk at his rawness and question his work ethic. Some people rate Keenan Allen as the top wide receiver, citing his well-rounded game and lack of distinct weaknesses; others wonder about his health and his lack of distinct strengths.
Such is the case with this class. One can make an argument for almost any of the top ten receivers over another, and it’s possible that the best value may be found in the middle rounds. However, let’s take a look at where my personal top five wide receivers may end up, based on scheme match and team need.
DeAndre Hopkins - 6’1”, 214 lbs - Clemson
Hopkins doesn’t possess elite size or speed, but he makes up for it by being the best route runner in the class. He has long arms (slightly longer than the 6’4” Justin Hunter) and big hands. He uses his great short-area quicks and strength at the catch point to shield defenders and make tough catches over the middle. Several people have compared him to Reggie Wayne, and that’s an apt comparison.
As my top wide receiver in the class, there are arguments for him fitting on any team in the first round that needs a wide receiver, but I think his best fit (based on need and scheme) is the Minnesota Vikings. They desperately need to revamp their wide receiver corps after losing Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin over the past few years, and Hopkins can be a consistent, reliable safety valve for Christian Ponder.
Keenan Allen - 6’2”, 206 lbs - California
Allen and Hopkins have very similar strengths and weaknesses. Allen is probably slightly more athletic, and Hopkins is slightly stronger at the catch point. Neither one has breakaway speed, but both are very quick off the line and create space with their quickness and polished routes. However, Hopkins played with talented quarterback in Tajh Boyd, while Allen was stuck with Zach Maynard, who is, unfortunately, an awful quarterback. Allen has also battled knee injuries recently. And he still produced 2,030 yards and 12 touchdowns on 159 receptions over the last two seasons. So perhaps he’d be great in Minnesota, where he could be paired up with another mediocre quarterback.
However, I think he would flourish in the Houston Texans’ offense. He’s been the most significant receiving threat at Cal, so he’s drawn all the attention of opposing defenses. In Houston, he can take advantage of defenses shifting coverage over Andre Johnson, and he should thrive in their play-action-based offense.
Tavon Austin - 5’9”, 174 lbs - West Virginia
Austin was one of the most productive receivers in the country last year, racking up over 198 all-purpose yards per game. His game is very similar to Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb: crazy speed and agility, tough and aggressive, and experienced at running back and in the return game, in addition to receiver. Because of his size, he’ll likely be limited to the slot at the next level, and there are some questions about how well he’d adapt to an NFL running game. He’d likely need an entire package of plays designed around him, rather than fitting him into an existing offense.
Right now, the trendy landing spot for him is the St. Louis Rams. I agree that he’d fit in well there, essentially replacing Danny Amendola. However, I think the best fit for him in the first round would actually be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Adding him to an offense with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams on the outside and Doug Martin in the backfield would give Josh Freeman no excuse for not succeeding.
Da’Rick Rogers - 6’3”, 217 lbs - Tennessee Tech
Rogers is an interesting case. On pure physical talent, he may be the best wide receiver in the draft. He has height, length, speed, explosiveness, and production. He’s not a pure field-stretcher like Torrey Smith or Mike Wallace, but he has enough speed to get behind a defense, and he’s as strong at the catch point as any receiver in the NFL. If an NFL team were to draft him for his talent, they’d take him in the mid-first.
However, he has major character red flags. He clashed with the coaching staff at Tennessee, and failed multiple drug tests, to the point that he was expelled and forced to transfer to Tennessee Tech. He passed a dozen drug tests there, and by most accounts was a model citizen. Most reports also indicated that he interviewed very well at the Combine. If he’s truly turned over a new leaf, he will have a long and successful NFL career; and I can’t think of a team more likely to take that chance than the New England Patriots. They took Tavon Wilson in the second round last year when most people didn’t have him in their top 300. I wouldn’t bat an eyelash at them taking Rogers in the first round.
Robert Woods - 6’1”, 201 lbs - Southern California
Woods was cut from the same mold as Hopkins and Allen. He’s a fantastic wide receiver who runs great routes and wins with his quickness and aggressiveness, but won’t outrun defensive backs and has had some past injury issues. Matt Barkley’s fall from grace has overshadowed Woods’ third consecutive outstanding season (76 receptions for 846 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2012, and 251 receptions for 2,924 yards and 32 touchdowns in his career). He’s perhaps a bit more suited to the slot than Hopkins or Allen, but he also compares favorably to Reggie Wayne.
I’ve projected him to the Denver Broncos for a few months now, but with the addition of Wes Welker, that is probably out of the question, meaning he may fall out of the first round. If he does, I think his best fit in the second round would be the Carolina Panthers. At some point, Steve Smith will run out of steam, and they might as well start preparing his replacement now. Smith and Woods have some similarities as receivers, and Woods could step in as a reliable option for Cam Newton.
And a few bonus projections...
Justin Hunter - 6’4”, 196 lbs - Tennessee
Hunter is a long, lanky, dynamic receiver who struggles with concentration lapses and could be an injury risk at the next level. His ceiling is high enough that he won’t drop out of the second round. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a good match.
Cordarrelle Patterson - 6’2”, 216 lbs - TennesseeIt’s very possible Patterson doesn’t survive the first round, but I think teams will be put off by his attitude and will question his ability to take to an NFL playbook. If he drops into the second round, however, he becomes great value. The Buffalo Bills would leap at the chance to pick him up with their second pick.
Quinton Patton - 6’0”, 204 lbs - Louisiana Tech
Patton is on the smaller side, and he isn’t the fastest receiver. He also lined up almost exclusively on the right side of the field. However, he has soft hands, run excellent routes, and has some sneaky speed. He’s a polished and underrated receiver, just the type that the Green Bay Packers have become notorious for snagging in the second round.
Markus Wheaton - 5’11”, 189 - Oregon StateWheaton is an absolute lightning bolt, and he’s longer and stronger than his narrow frame would suggest. He is small, though, and didn’t run a diverse route tree in college. He projects as a slightly smaller, more polished Mike Wallace, and he’d be a serious steal if he dropped to the Philadelphia Eagles’ pick at the top of the third round.
Stedman Bailey - 5’10”, 193 - West Virginia
Lost in all the hype surrounding Geno Smith and Tavon Austin is the severely-underrated Bailey. He’s small and has struggled with injuries, but he plays bigger than his weight, and could develop into a reliable number two receiver with upside, much like Golden Tate. With his nose for the end zone (41 career touchdowns) and his penchant for the big play (career 15.3 yards per catch), he’d fit in well in the vertical offense Rob Chudzinski is establishing with the Cleveland Browns, and they should jump all over him if he reaches the 68th pick.