As long as Andrew Luck is still in the league, does anyone really have a chance over over-throwing the Indianapolis Colts at their top spot in the AFC South?
At least for this year, definitely not. After the Colts, the competition in the AFC South really falls off. Despite the three other teams (Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee) having high picks in this year’s draft, their rosters are still underwhelming.
Still, with the rest of the competition in the division down, a team could pick up some easy wins throughout the season on their division rivals and make a play for a Wild Card spot. But which team has the best chance of improving?
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Some people like the Jaguars after their draft and offseason moves — but I am not one of those people. Despite having a great draft (sans the early Blake Bortles pick) there’s just too many holes on this roster for the Jaguars to be a strong team.
Toby Gerhart is not the answer at running back, and the offensive line is still an issue despite drafting guard Brandon Linder and signing Zane Beadles in free agency. Bortles is at least a year away from being a true starting quarterback in the league, and Jacksonville’s secondary is just sad.
Cecil Shorts and draftees Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson will make up a good group of receivers, but Bortles or Chad Henne just aren’t good enough to get the Jaguars out of the basement of the AFC South.
3. Tennessee Titans
With these next two spots in the rankings, it’s really a toss-up between the Titans and Texans. They’ll both probably end up with the same number of wins, but the Texans have a much more talented roster than Tennessee.
The Taylor Lewan pick makes no sense considering the Titans already have Michael Oher and Michael Roos on the roster, and there’s still quite a few holes on defense with Alterraun Verner gone.
Jake Locker is a huge injury risk at quarterback, and drafting Zach Mettenberger was safe in the sixth round, but I don’t see him bringing much more to the table than a healthy Locker.
Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene make up a pretty decent running game without Chris Johnson but with that defense now missing Verner, it’ll be tough for them to win games by scoring 30 points a game.
2. Houston Texans
Houston is still a few players away from making the playoffs again, but in this division, they rank higher than the other two teams behind the Colts. The Texans couldn’t have done much better in the draft, pairing J.J. Watt with Jadeveon Clowney and Louis Nix III, giving them one of the best defensive lines in the league outside of St. Louis.
The secondary is solid, but could have used some more help at the safety spot, and the offense is still a huge issue. Houston seems content with rolling with Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick or the newly drafted Tom Savage at quarterback, but I’m not sold at all on Savage. Fitzpatrick seems like the guy here, and he doesn’t have enough weapons to win nine or so games this year.
Andre Johnson seems flat-out tired of being in Houston, and Arian Foster has huge injury issues, plus they lost his backup Ben Tate to Cleveland in free agency. This team is still a draft or two away from getting back to the postseason, but the defense is good enough now to win more games than Jacksonville or Tennessee.
1.Indianapolis Colts
No surprises here. The Colts had one of the worst drafts out of any team, but they are still a lock to win the division. Their first pick didn’t come until No. 59 overall (meanwhile, the Browns took Indy’s first-round pick they acquired in the Trent Richardson trade and turned it into Johnny Manziel) and did little else to help the roster this offseason.
Adding D’Qwell Jackson will help their pass rush, but the secondary is still a mess. Still, the offense is good enough to get the Colts to 10 wins and a division win. Luck is only improving over time, and drafting Donte Moncrief will help the receivers (in addition to picking up Hakeem Nicks in free agency).
Losing Donald Brown to free agency is a concern given Richardson’s poor season last year but if Richardson can get anything going they’ll be fine on offense.