This time of year there is only one thing on a sports fan's mind: Fantasy Football. So, with that, your friendly neighboorhood eDraft team is here to help. We will go team-by-team and break down all 32 teams, with in-depth analysis of top players, hidden gems, and projected busts.
To check out the other breakdowns, as the become available, click here. Today, we break down the Atlanta Falcons, a team that struggled mightily last season with injuries to key players. With the team healthy, and injections of young talent in Jake Matthews and Devonta Freeman, the Falcons are looking to get back on track in the NFC South.
Matt Ryan, Quarterback
Ryan had to lead the team last year, with little to no help from other positions. When your team's leading rusher has a total of 543 yards, and the leading receiver is Harry Douglas, that team is doomed for a 4-12 season, which they got. Tony Gonzalez is gone, but a healthy running game, and Ryan's two dynamic receivers back on the field, you cannot expect much of the same things to happen. Ryan is good for a completion percentage of over 60 year-to-year, and 26-30 touchdowns a year. Ryan is in the tier of quarterbacks that are good for actual football, but not the fantasy kind. He should be viewed as an emergency pick, or a low end second tier signal caller.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 69
Steven Jackson, Running Back
What a disappointment Jackson was last year. Keep in mind that he only played 12 games last season, but, he had his lowest amount of rushing yards in his career. He had the least amount of carries in his career, with the exception of his rookie year. Even when he did play, he only averaged 45 yards per game, also his lowest of his career. Along with his awful rushing numbers, he had his lowest amount of receiving yards in his career, with the exception again of his rookie year. All in all, he had a total of 734 yards from scrimmage last year. I have a friend who drafted Jackson with the last pick in the first round last year, bless his soul. He shouldn't be valued as any more than a very low end RB2, but for the most part, bench depth.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 76
Julio Jones, Wide Receiver
It really was a shame to see Julio go down last year. No one wants to see the stars on the sidelines, and that's what Jones is: a star. He only played in five games last season, and what a five game stretch it was. He racked up 580 yards and a couple of touchdowns in those games. Julio is a threat in all aspects of the game.He can catch the screen pass, he can run intermediate routes, and most of all, he is one of the best deep threats in the league. Jones has an 80-yard touchdown in three straight seasons to start his career. Over his three-year career, he has an average of 15.7 yards per reception, better than stars A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald. He is a first-tier wide out, and a very good WR1.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 21
Roddy White, Wide Receiver
White was another Falcon who was banged up for most of last season, playing in only 11 games. He posted his lowest receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns since the 2006 season. He had his lowest yards per game in nearly seven years, and his lowest yards per reception in his career. To expect the season that White had in 2012, this season, simply wont't happen. In 2012, White had 92 catches, for 1351 yards and 7 touchdowns. Only one player in NFL history has had that season at age 33, one Jerry Rice. For one to expect a season with, say, 70 catches 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns is much more manageable for a player his age. That season, at age 33, has happened 12 times in history, most recently with Anquan Boldin last year. White should be viewed as a high to mid-tier WR2.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 49
Levine Toilolo, Tight End-
Who? Exactly. We in the sports industry like to call this the Hall-Of-Famer-Retires-Effect. With Tony Gonzalez gone, the Falcons are stuck with this kid and Bear Pascoe for tight ends. Toilolo had some good games last year, with six points against the Jets and seven points against the Dolphins. He is a freak, standing six foot eight inches tall. He certainly won’t replace the 80 catch seasons that Gonzalez is leaving behind, but he will be a big red zone threat with his height. Kind of similar to what Scott Chandler is for the Buffalo Bills. He will without a doubt go undrafted, so look to him as an injury replacement, or a mid-season waiver wire sleeper.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- N/A
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Harry Douglas, Wide Receiver
Some season Douglas had last year, eh? All the speculation last season involved Douglas reaching his potential in a break-out season, and that he did. He caught 85 balls, and eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career. While it was a down season for the Falcons, Douglas did only have two touchdowns last season, so his scoring ability is still unclear. But, on a team where the expectations are up-and-down, Douglas could emerge as a top end slot receiver. He should very easily go undrafted, and be able to be picked up on the waiver wire in case of an injury, or for depth.
Average Draft Position (ADP)- 223
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Jacquizz Rodgers, Running Back
Rodgers had some really solid games last season.He had back-to-back eight point games. In the same season, he also had back-to-back 17 points games. But don’t be fooled. Rodgers had more receiving yards last season than he did rushing yards, so determining his value is difficult. One thing is clear, he is going to have to battle for touches. Rookie Devonta Freeman has opened some eyes in training camp, and playing his way to some reps. While Freeman’s ADP is 164, Rodgers isn’t even getting drafted.
How The Schedule Impacts Falcon’s Fantasy Options
One single move helps the Falcons, and everyone else in the NFC South’s offenses: The departure of Darrelle Revis from Tampa Bay. The NFC South is one of the hardest divisions in the league, along with the NFC and AFC West. The Saint’s re-vamped defense, along with Carolina’s stingy D makes for four game right off the bat that will be tough. Even Tampa Bay’s defense is looking good. Along with their in-division games, the Falcons also draw solid defenses in Arizona, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. With the good, always comes the bad however. The Falcons should be able to have good offensive games against the Vikings, Bears, Giants and Lions. Overall, the Falcons rank 11th in the league in strength-of-schedule, their opponents 2013 win percentage was .512.