I'll bet those who drafted Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback, Andy Dalton in 2013 as their backup were surprised to see him finish the season ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. Additionally, Dalton was probably used in starting lineups more often than not, if you originally drafted a starter like Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, or even Russell Wilson, who all were subject to disappoint on occasion.
That was 2013, however, so now we must evaluate if Dalton worth owning in 2014, or should he be sold while the going is good. In analyzing Dalton, one main thing to note is that in his past three seasons as the Bengals’ starter, his production has improved each year. Dalton’s passing yards have increased from 3,398 in 2011 to 4,293 in 2013. Along with his increasing yards, Dalton’s touchdowns have improved as well from 20 in his first season to 33 in 2013.
On the flipside, a number that increased for Dalton which is not an improvement were his interceptions. He went from throwing 13 interceptions in 2011 to a whopping 20 in 2013. Dalton’s passer rating which increased over four percent from 2011 to 2012 decreased slightly in 2013.
For the most part, Dalton looks fabulous on paper. He has risen in his fantasy ranking among quarterbacks from his rookie year where he ranked at 15th to 2013 where he finished fifth. Dalton’s consistency based on whether he has either passed for a minimum of 300 yards and/or completed two touchdown passes per game, has also improved from 44 percent in 2011 to 75 percent consistent in 2013.
Will 2014 have Dalton, who is in his final year of his rookie contract, yet again rising in the ranks, and can he reward true QB1 fantasy numbers like he did last season? This will be a pivotal year for Dalton, and the loss of offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden who promoted a pass-happy offense, definitely could be a daunting crossroad for Dalton. If the Bengals look to rely more heavily on incorporating their ground game to take the pressure off of Dalton, the emergence of second-year running back, Giovani Bernard, could be a factor who causes Dalton’s numbers to take a hit.
While Dalton has shown consistent improvement over his first three seasons, climbing his way up to the fifth-best fantasy quarterback in 2013, I believe he has reached his plateau. Daltons’ 20 interceptions in 2013 also have him ranked at fifth-highest in that category as well, which is a legitimate red flag.
With other quarterbacks such as Robert Griffin III, and Matt Ryan poised for a comeback season, Dalton, alson referrred to as the Red Rifle, could certainly see a drop in his top-five ranking. I would advise selling high on Dalton as a QB1, and invest on him as a suitable QB2 or backup quarterback, who will likely finish 2014 ranking near the bottom 10 in his class.