If the Green Bay Packers had at least an average defense last season, who knows how far they could have gone. Despite Aaron Rodgers’ injury that kept him out for eight regular season games, the Packers still managed to make the playoffs, and played a competitive game in the Wild Card round against the San Francisco 49ers, arguably the second best team in the league.
Now with Rodgers back healthy, and a full season under Eddie Lacy’s belt, plus some improvements on defense, the Packers are ready to contend in the NFC. Year-in and year-out, Green Bay always has great fantasy options, so how good are they this season?
Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
As I’ve written about for this site in the past, I’m a big proponent of waiting to take a quarterback in fantasy drafts this season. But, if you’re going to go quarterback early, Rodgers is the obvious choice along with Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. In his eight complete games, Rodgers averaged 20.25 fantasy points per game.
Had he played in all 16 games, he would have been the third best fantasy quarterback with 324 points, over 40 total points more than the actual third-place quarterback, Cam Newton. And, because it was a broken collarbone that kept Rodgers out and not a muscle, he’s not a huge risk for re-injury, so owners can expect a full season.
Eddie Lacy, Running Back
Everyone is on the Lacy bandwagon heading into this season, and rightfully so. When looking at running backs, it’s important to look at what they do on a per-game basis rather than the body of work on the season as a whole. With quarterbacks, they are far more likely to keep putting up similar numbers on a weekly basis than running backs.
Lacy was the sixth best fantasy back last season, and was the second most consistent running back, according to our consistency metrics, even with missing Week 3 and only getting one carry in Week 2. Lacy had six games of 16 or more fantasy points, and his usage is sure to increase this season given his consistency in his rookie campaign. Lacy is now a first-round guy in drafts, no question.
Jordy Nelson, Wide Receiver
Nelson could be the most underrated wide receiver in the league. He hardly ever comes up in the conversations with A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas as to who is the best receiver behind Calvin Johnson. In seasons that he’s been healthy, Nelson has been a stud.
He finished last season with 1,314 yards and eight touchdowns, even without Rodgers for eight games. In the eight games Rodgers played, Nelson had four games of at least 113 yards, and had just one touchdown in the stretch without Rodgers. Now with a full season of these two together, Nelson’s fantasy numbers should break the top five receivers.
Randall Cobb, Wide Receiver
In the past, Cobb and James Jones had competed for touches. But with Jones in Oakland now, Cobb is the easy choice as Rodgers’ No. 2 target. Now that Nelson has a new, huge deal, Cobb will be playing for an extension himself.
Like Rodgers, he missed most of last year appearing in six games. But in those games, he averaged 14 yards per catch, and scored four touchdowns. In 2012, he had eight touchdowns in 15 games. If he can stay in the lineup, Cobb could go for his first career 1,000-yard season and he’s looking to absorb the three touchdowns Jones had least season in Green Bay.
Andrew Quarless, Tight End
For the first time since the 2007 season, the Packers will have to run their offense without Jermichael Finley at least on the roster. Finley is a free agent, and until he is medically cleared to play, Quarless is looking at the majority of the tight end snaps for Green Bay.
Even with Finley missing 10 games last season, Quarless only managed two touchdowns and 312 yards. In most leagues, Quarless will likely go undrafted, but he could be worth a pickup a few weeks into the season if Rodgers starts to look at him more.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Jarrett Boykin, Wide Receiver
Looking back to even 2008, when Rodgers first took over as the starting quarterback in Green Bay, the No. 3 receiver at the time, Nelson, was targeted 55 times. In 2010, Jones had 87 targets, Nelson had 64, and Donald Driver was targeted 84 times. And in 2012, Cobb had 104 targets and Jones had 98, with Nelson behind at 73, and Greg Jennings with 62.
All of that is great news for Boykin. Rodgers loves to spread the ball around, and Boykin is looking at quite a few targets. Cobb, the No. 3 receiver for much of last year with his health, had 46 targets, and Boykin had 82. Assuming everyone plays 16 games, Boykin could still be looking at 70-some targets, and both Cobb and Nelson have had injury issues in the past. Boykin is a great late-round pick to be a flex play and he could break into the starting lineup for Green Bay if someone goes down.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: No one
Even with the largely unproven Quarless at tight end, no owners should expect anything less than the best from the Packers’ fantasy option. Obviously, if you draft Quarless in the fifth round, you’re going to get burned. But Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb and Nelson are all fantastic fantasy option, and as long as they stay healthy, Rodgers will be one of the three best quarterbacks, Lacy a top-seven back, and Nelson and Cobb will both finish among the top 15 fantasy receivers. Don’t waiver on taking any of these guys.
How the Schedule Impacts Green Bay’s Fantasy Outlook
Green Bay’s divisional opponents (Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago) hardly made any offseason moves to improve their defenses. Last season, the Vikings allowed the most points to fantasy quarterbacks last season, the Bears allowed the second most points to running backs and the Lions allowed the third most points to wide receiver. Games against the Seahawks, Panthers and Saints prior to their bye week are tough games, but starting in Week 10, the Packers enter a terribly easy stretch against defenses that features the Bears, Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, Patriots and Lions. In that stretch, the Bills and Buccaneers are both tough defenses, but even the Bills are unknown on defense after losing Jairus Byrd and Kiko Alonso.