Were the Houston Texans actually the worse team in football last season? Probably not. Their record was much worse than the talent on the field would indicate.
Houston, especially after this year’s draft, is stacked on defense and has a number of playmakers on offense. But because of various injuries and a poor coaching situation, the Texans just didn’t win very many games.
Despite some quarterback issues, the Texans should come back with at least a season that makes their playmakers fantasy relevant.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Quarterback
Not really much to dissect here. Except in leagues that start two quarterbacks, Fitzpatrick is basically useless. He’s an average professional starting quarterback, and has never thrown more than 24 touchdowns in a season. He has Andre Johnson to throw to, but outside of that, there’s not much value for Fitzpatrick. Tom Savage may end up taking over by the time the year is over, too.
Arian Foster, Running Back
We all know what Foster brings to the table now, as long as he’s healthy. He appeared in eight games last year, and only scored one touchdown. But the three seasons prior to that, Foster had 31 combined rushing scores, plus another six in the passing game. Without Ben Tate to spell him, it will be interesting to see how the Texans adjust their game plan, as to not overload Foster. There’s no way he repeats a one-touchdown season, so as long as he appears in 13 games, 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns is within reach.
Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver
Full disclosure: We frankly don’t know what’s going on with Johnson. At this point, it looks like his choices are to either play for Houston this season or retire. Should he eventually show up on the field for the Texans, he’s a lock to be one of the 10 best fantasy receivers. Even last year with a combination of Case Keenum and Matt Schaub at quarterback, he caught 109 passes for 1,407 yards and five touchdowns. Fitzpatrick would easily be able to help him reproduce those numbers.
DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver
The speedster is back for a second go-around in the league, after racking up solid yardage in his rookie campaign but failing to find the end zone often. Hopkins only scored twice, but averaged 15.4 yards per catch and caught eight passes that traveled 21 yards or more in the air. Hopkins has great big-play ability, and I see his touchdown numbers increasing, especially if Johnson is moved, retires or doesn’t show up for camp.
Garrett Graham, Tight End
Now that Owen Daniels is in Baltimore, Graham is the No. 1 tight end in Houston. With Daniels out for most of the year last season, Graham had five touchdowns and 545 yards. He was targeted 88 times last year in 13 games, so if he plays in all 16 games, he should be looking at close to 95 targets, which for a tight end, is a great number. Again, if Johnson misses time or is moved, Graham’s value would only improve.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Andre Brown, Running Back
We’ve already covered Foster’s injury problems, and Brown is a must-own for anyone who takes Foster in the first round. By the end of the season, Brown could be getting Tate-type looks. Tate had 181 carries last season backing up Foster, and 175 in his rookie year. Brown had an eight-touchdown season in 2012, and scored three in eight games last season. If Foster misses any time (which he probably will), Brown immediately becomes a RB2 option.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Arian Foster, Running Back
If Foster can stay on the field, he obviously won’t be a disappointment. But I just don’t trust him to play in even 14 games. Currently, Foster is being drafted as the No. 7 running back and No. 11 overall, so just inside the first round of 12-team leagues, per FantasyPros' ADP. Assuming he doesn’t play 16 games, Alfred Morris and Le’Veon Bell will both end up having better seasons than Foster, who are going an entire round lower than him. By now, any owner taking Foster in the first round should know the extreme risk they’re taking.
How the Schedule Impacts Houstons’ Fantasy Options
For Foster and Brown, being in the AFC South is good news. The Colts allowed the seventh most rushing yards per game last season, the Jaguars allowed the fourth most (but mainly because teams got up by so much) and the Titans allowed the 13th most. Johnson and the receivers should find similar success — especially against the Colts. The Texans also get Washington (one of the worst defenses in the league) in Week 1, the Raiders in Week 2, and the Cowboys in Week 5. Games in the middle part of the season against the AFC North will be tough, but overall, the majority of Houston’s games are good news for fantasy owners.