By all accounts last season, the New York Jets were a terrible fantasy football team. There were no breakout wide receivers, there was no No. 1 running back, and Geno Smith barely made it through the season as the starter despite a huge interception rate and overall poor play.
With several additions to the roster this offseason, the Jets will be a more relevant fantasy team, but by how much?
Geno Smith or Michael Vick, Quarterback
There’s no real feeling yet over which quarterback is going to start Week 1. Although Smith seems like the favorite to start with Vick serving as the veteran mentor, no one would be shocked if Smith falls flat in camp and Vick proves to be a more capable quarterback. Either quarterback is nothing more than a fantasy backup, however. Outside of Eric Decker, there’s no strong receivers on the team and Smith still looks like he’s at least a year away from even being an average starting NFL quarterback, while Vick’s best years are far behind in. For fantasy purposes, Vick would be the better option because of his ability to scramble and pick up rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
Chris Johnson, Running Back
Johnson is a real value pick this year as a RB2. He’s going as the No. 24 running back (No. 55 overall) in drafts, according to FantasyPros’ average draft position, behind Ben Tate and Toby Gerhart. When looking at Johnson, the wear is certainly a concern: He’s carried the ball at least 251 times in each of his six seasons.
Still, Johnson has never not had a 1,000-yard season, and has scored six touchdowns in each of his past two seasons and had eight games with either 100 yards or a touchdown last year, according to our consistency metrics. He doesn’t have the big-play ability he used to during his early years in Tennessee, but Johnson will be far and away the No. 1 back in New York, and will get somewhere around 260 touches, which more than opens the door for yet another 1,000-yard season, although Bilal Powell is a threat to take some of Johnson’s touchdowns.
Eric Decker, Wide Receiver
The most sought-after receiver in this offseason’s free agency class, Decker ended up with the Jets. Although Decker’s targets should remain about the same in New York because there’s frankly not much else on the roster, but his touchdowns will really go down. He’s scored 24 total touchdowns in the past two seasons, but most of that comes from having Peyton Manning as his quarterback. The eight touchdowns he scored in 2011 is a more likely goal, but if Smith is throwing to him, it’ll be almost impossible to reach his production from last year.
Stephen Hill, Wide Receiver
After Decker, every other receiver seems to fall in the same category. Hill is currently atop that pile, but David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley and rookie Shaq Evans are not far behind. Early on last season, Hill got off to a very hot start, going for 233 yards and a touchdown in his first three games. But after that, Hill dropped off the map and now looks to get incorporated into the offense once again. With Decker on the other side of the field, that will be tough. He’s nothing more than a flyer WR3 in leagues that start three receivers or two flex spots.
Jeff Cumberland, Tight End
This time last year, Cumberland was being thrown around as a potential breakout tight end. Although he’s more of a blocking tight end than a catching one, Cumberland doesn’t have any challengers for the starting spot. If a team starts two tight ends, Cumberland is certainly a respectable selection, but won’t challenge to be a TE1 in standard leagues. He missed one game last season, but had three games when he didn’t have a single catch, and had five others games with just one. Also, Cumberland will also suffer from the quarterback factor, like the rest of New York’s receivers.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Chris Johnson, Running Back
I already touched on this, but Johnson presents great value as a RB2 in standard drafts. Tate has a real challenger for the starting spot in Cleveland in Terrance West, Gerhart has never been a starting back before, and ahead of them is Rashad Jennings (has to deal with David Wilson coming back) and Ryan Mathews (hit is ceiling last season). In the past four seasons, the lowest Johnson has finished in total rushing yards is 14th, and finished highest as fourth in 2010. In seems like each offseason heaps more hate onto Johnson, but until his numbers actually force him out of the top 15 fantasy backs, I’m convinced he’s a solid RB2 option.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Eric Decker, Wide Receiver
The Denver Broncos attempted 42.2 passes per game last season. The Jets attempted 30. Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdowns last season. Geno Smith threw 12 (in the same number of games). And that’s basically all you need to know about Decker’s production. He’s going as the No. 34 wide receiver, which is fair value for Decker. But despite the possibility of 100 targets out there for Decker and a good amount of yardage, he’ll be lucky to score four touchdowns, if that.
How the Schedule Impacts New York's Fantasy Outlook
New York plays in a tough division for defenses. New England is good, but not great. The Buffalo Bills still have a strong front seven despite losing Kiko Alonso and the Miami Dolphins have Cameron Wake Jared Odrick and Randy Starks on the defensive line and newcomer Dannell Ellerbe at middle linebacker, which makes for a pretty strong front seven. Outside of the division, there’s a mix of good and bad matchups for their fantasy options. Weeks 3 (Chicago), Week 4 (Detroit), Week 5 (San Diego) and Week 15 (Tennessee) are all good matchups for the Jets. But games against the Steelers and Chiefs in the middle of the season will be tough for Johnson and Decker to make an impact.