Throughout the next couple week, eDraft will be releasing its 2014 Fantasy Football Preview in individual articles focusing on what to expect heading into draft season.
Here are our rankings of the top-40 fantasy football quarterbacks heading into the 2014 season. Scroll down for explanations and "tiers" as it relates to where each viable fantasy quarterback should rank when all is said and done. Advanced statistics, metrics and other in-depth analysis were all combined in these rankings.
Elite Status
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: Manning will have a hard time repeating the success we saw last season. He outscored the No. 2 fantasy quarterback (Drew Brees) by a whopping 52.30 points throughout the course of the year. In addition to that, Denver must take on the NFC West, not the NFC East this season. That could also play a major role. With all that said, Manning is still the clear No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Rodgers 2013 campaign was defined by an injury and return from said injury late in the year. When healthy, there is little doubt he's a top-three fantasy signal caller. Rodgers put up nearly 9,000 passing yards with 89 total touchdowns in 2012 and 2013 combined. With Green Bay's vast expanse of weapons, there is little reason to believe he won't repeat those numbers in 2014.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: A fantasy football stud if we have ever seen one, just look at Brees' numbers since he joined the Saints back in 2006. He's averaging 4,841 passing yards and 35 touchdowns in eight seasons in New Orleans. Despite losing Darren Sproles this offseason, Brees has a tremendous supporting cast to help him continue on this record clip. Look for youngsters Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks to help him out big time.
Rock-Solid QB1 Options
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: This all depends on how Reggie Wayne returns from a torn ACL he suffered last season. Without Wayne in the mix for the final nine games of the year, Luck averaged less than 17 fantasy points per outing. With Wayne in the mix for the first seven games, Luck averaged 19.2 fantasy points. That might not seem like a big deal, but it's the difference between being a top-10 and a top-six fantasy option. In any event, Luck is a rock-solid QB1 option.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: Stafford hasn't quite hit elite fantasy status, but he's close. The former No. 1 pick is averaging 4,800 yards and 30 touchdowns in the last three seasons. While he took a step back on the field last season, Stafford still finished as the seventh-best fantasy option. Add Golden Tate and Eric Ebron to the mix, and there is reason to believe his overall production will increase a great deal. Likely a top-five option in 2014.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: One of the most underrated fantasy quarterbacks, Romo has continually put up QB1 numbers throughout the course of his career. In fact, he's been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in each of his six full seasons as a Cowboys starter. That's what you call "rock solid."
Potential High-Upside QB1 Options
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers: Expectations in San Francisco are that the 49ers are going to open up their offense a great deal in 2014. And why not? The additions of Steve Johnson and what has been a surprising Bruce Ellington to the mix with Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis makes the 49ers passing attack one of the best in the league. Despite dramatic inconsistencies from a fantasy standpoint last season, Kaepernick still finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Look for him to improve on those numbers big time with more opportunities to make plays through the air.
Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles: We can't expect the same touchdown-to-interception ratio as last season, but Foles proved to be a perfect fit for Chip Kelly's offense in Philadelphia. Despite starting only 10 games last season, Foles finished as a QB1 option. He tallied 20-plus points in six of his 10 starts. The loss of DeSean Jackson hurts, but adding Darren Sproles and Jordan Matthews to the mix more than makes up for that.
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: Speaking of Jackson, he's going to help RGIII and the Redskins rebound big time after a disastrous 2013 campaign. The former Eagles receiver will team up with Pierre Garcon to form one of the better starting receiver tandems in the league. Add into the mix second-year tight end Jordan Reed, and the Redskins have all the makings to improve a great deal on offense. As with last season, it's all going to depend on how healthy RGIII is. If he's 100 percent, there is little doubt that the dynamic signal caller isn't a top-10 fantasy option. It's that simple.
Bust Potential Based on ADP
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Let me be clear here. Wilson is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. The only reason he falls under this category is due to the fact that the Seahawks offense has held him back from a fantasy perspective. You simply cannot rely too much on a guy that threw the least amount of passes among regular starting quarterbacks last season. There is also some concern over Seattle's offensive line heading into the 2014 season. Bust potential here is simply due to the fact that Wilson's ADP (101) is a tad too high. Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton could be had rounds later. Unlike Kaepernick's situation in San Francisco, it doesn't appear Wilson will be unleashed in 2014. That's the only difference here.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Who in the world is Newton going to throw the ball to? He currently has an ADP that's two full rounds ahead of Romo and Kaepernick. If we were looking at the Panthers team from a season ago, that would make sense. But we aren't. Gone are Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. They will be replaced by the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant. You do that math. This isn't an indictment on Newton, who progressed a great deal last year. It's more about the Panthers inability to surround him with anything at the wide receiver position.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady took a dramatic step back last season due to the fact tha the pretty much had no go-to receiver. With Rob Gronkowski likely ready to go, Brady might have one viable option in the passing game. With that said, we can't realistically expect Gronk to stay healthy all season. In addition to this, the Patriots are trending towards more of a run-based offense that takes up time off the clock. This is a recipe for success considering that their defense is rock solid. It will, however, impact Brady's fantasy output.
Borderline QB1 Options
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: When Julio Jones and Roddy White are healthy, Ryan is a clear QB1 option. Even with both of them missing time last season, Ryan still finished as a top-tier QB2 option. With both back in the fold, we can expect a return to form from the signal caller. He ranked seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points back in 2012 and eighth in the same category back in 2011. Expect him to finish somewhere near that level in 2014.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Rivers had a bounce-back campaign in 2013 and it appears that he's ready to pick up where he left off. Keenan Allen proved to be a tremendous surprise for Rivers in the passing game, recording over 1,000 receiving yards. With a full offseason of working together, we can expect this duo to hit elite status in 2014. Add into the equation Malcom Floyd, who will be returning to injury, and Rivers won't be limited by a lackluster receiver group.