From a fantasy football perspective, the Washington Redskins are actually in pretty good shape. From a pure football perspective, they’re going to have to win games 50-45 this year given how porous their defense is. But that’s what make the fantasy outlook so positive for this team.
In a fairly easy division, the Redskins still won’t make much noise for a playoff spot, but they’re in line to at least pick up more wins than last year under the direction of a new coaching staff, led by Jay Gruden. At least on the offensive side of the ball, let’s look at why there are certainly some major fantasy players to keep an eye on.
Robert Griffin III, Quarterback
Griffin has really only had one good year in the NFL. Last year was basically lost with a poor offensive line and all the Mike Shanahan drama. So it might seem like a big leap to say that Griffin will have a bounce-back year after playing so poorly, especially having to learn a new system, but Griffin finally has another offensive weapon in DeSean Jackson and the Redskins at least attempted to sure up the line. If he can take a step forward as a pocket passer on third down this year under Gruden, Griffin’s total passing yards will jump up and the offensive will really get going.
Alfred Morris, Running Back
Although Morris is being drafted as a RB2, he is a great candidate to be a sleeper RB1. Even in Washington’s poor year last season, he ran for 1,275 yards and seven touchdowns on the heels of a 13-touchdown rookie campaign. Morris has also proven to be a very durable back, so missing time isn’t a concern. With a better and healthy offensive line and Jackson to take some focus off of the front seven, Morris’s numbers will improve in both yardage and touchdowns.
DeSean Jackson, Wide Receiver
Jackson seems to have been lost in the offseason shuffle because his move away from Philadelphia happened so early in free agency. Although Griffin isn’t the pure pocket passer that Jackson had last year in Philadelphia with Nick Foles, Griffin’s mobility will open some plays for Jackson. With Pierre Garcon, Morris and Jordan Reed on the field with him, don’t expect Jackson to carry over his nine touchdowns from last year, but he should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards and six touchdowns in Washington’s offense.
Pierre Garcon, Wide Receiver
Garcon showed last year that if he can stay healthy, he can be a top-two receiving option for the Redskins. Playing in all 16 games for just the second time in his six-year career, Garcon hauled in 113 passes for 1,346 and five touchdowns. Garcon will take a back seat to Jackson, but with Jackson’s ability to go deep, some things should open up for Garcon over the middle. This will also be the first year for RGIII that he’s had two real pass-catching options at receiver, so it remains to be seen how he will distribute the ball.
Jordan Reed, Tight End
We’ve only seen half a season out of Reed, and people seem to have forgotten how effective he was for Washington when he was in the lineup. In the eight games he finished, Reed had five games of 50 or more yards and was on pace for six touchdowns. Now in his second year out of Florida, Reed should become a bigger part of the offense with Garcon and Jackson on the wings to distract teams’ best defensive backs.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Jordan Reed, Tight End
Owners are already expecting Reed to be an every-week tight end option in fantasy, but he could surprise owners who take draft him and end up in the top six or seven tight end by the end of the season. In his complete games, Reed averaged 7.25 targets per game, including a three-target game in Week 2. Under Gruden last year in Cincinnati, Andy Dalton targeted his two tight ends a combined 125 times, which would have been the second most of anyone on the Bengals. Griffin hopes to take a step forward as a pocket passer in third-down situations when he can be as crafty, and Reed will be his safety valve on those plays. With all that in mind, eight touchdowns and 900 yards is not out of reach.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Pierre Garcon, Wide Reciever
Garcon won a lot of fantasy owners last year with a career year, but potential owners need to realize it was more of a product of opportunity rather than talent. He’s a talented receiver, and a great No. 2 option for any team, but he led the league in targets last year with 184, according to our premium stats, which simply can't be repeated. The next closest Redskin was Santana Moss, who had been targeted 80 times. Toward the end of the season, in Weeks 15 and 16, he combined for two touchdowns and 273 yards, which was when Kirk Cousins was playing quarterback. With Jackson in Washington now, Garcon’s targets are going to go way down, demoting him to flex upside in fantasy.
How the Schedule Impacts Seattle’s Fantasy Options
The Redskins get a huge boost in fantasy from their division. Dallas was the worst defense in football in terms of total yardage, and will probably return to that mark this year and the Eagles were the fourth worst. The Giant’s run defense is strong, but their secondary still has holes, even after signing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Unfortunately, they play the NFC West this season, which means road games against Arizona and San Francisco and home ones against Seattle and St. Louis. But the divisional matchups (especially three in a row at the end of the season during fantasy playoff time) will balance everything out.