This is the second part of Tuesday’s article breaking down the rest of the 2014 Quarterback Prospects.
6. Zach Mettenberger, LSU (Early 3rd Round)
In my view, Zach Mettenberger is the most intriguing quarterback prospect in this draft class. He has excellent size, good athleticism and a powerful arm. It’s not a stretch to say he’s the most physically gifted quarterback in this group.
The issue is that Mettenberger has yet to show the type of consistency needed to be seen as a top prospect. He specifically struggles making quick decisions and going through his progressions. Mettenberger allows the defensive pressure to impact his mechanics and decision making. This is a problem because it increases the likelihood of a turnover.
It’s important to note that last year was his first season as a full-time starter. As a result, Mettenberger showed a lot of improvement as the season progressed. It was obvious that he felt more comfortable and gained confidence. Arguably his best performance came against Alabama where he went 24-of-35 for 298 yards and a touchdown. LSU ended up losing that game but it was a coming out party for Mettenberger.
Don’t be surprised if by the time the 2014 draft rolls around that Mettenberger has worked himself into the top-10 discussion.
7. Derek Carr, Fresno State (Late 3rd Round)
It’s tough to really evaluate Derek Carr because he isn’t surrounded by much talent. In fact, Fresno State’s issues along the offensive line puts Carr in a situation similar to the one Jay Cutler has dealt with in Chicago.
The constant pressure has led to Carr developing bad habits like backpedaling from under center, releasing the ball without setting his feet and a tendency to force the ball into tight coverage. Carr’s willingness to take risks also has to do with the limited talent Fresno State has at the wide receiver position.
What I really love about Carr is that he’s a real competitor who’s willing to do whatever it takes to keep his team competitive. He’s also a smart football player who can quickly make pre and post-snap reads. Carr is a savvy quarterback showing the ability to move defenders with his eyes and a pump fake.
This is a prospect who’ll come off the board in the middle rounds and end up surprising some people. Don’t be surprised if Carr is one of the more successful quarterbacks to come out of this class.
8. Bryn Renner, North Carolina (Late 4th Round)
Bryn Renner is a talented quarterback who possesses good athleticism and arm talent. He plays with excellent balance in the pocket and is committed to squaring up to his target. This helps him deliver an accurate ball.
However, he needs to work on developing a better feel in the pocket. Brenner has a tendency to get “happy feet” when his first option is covered. He also trusts his arm strength a little too much and will force the ball into tight coverage.
Overall, Renner has a chance to develop into a really good prospect. If he shows some improvement this year he could find himself in the first or second round mix.
9. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech (Late 4th Round)
I was one of the many who fell in love with Logan Thomas’ upside in the early part of last year’s draft process. His combination of size, athleticism, and arm strength gives him unlimited potential. The issue is that Thomas has yet to find consistency and put all his skills together.
While evaluating Thomas, it’s easy to see that he has a good throwing motion and balance in the pocket. He does a good job squaring towards his target and stepping into his throws. However, he has a tendency to aim the ball which negatively impacts his accuracy.
Thomas also really struggles making quick and correct post-snap reads. This results in missed opportunities, balls thrown into coverage and turnovers. It’s possible that the pressure of being labeled as a potential first-round pick impacted Thomas’ play. Confidence also appeared to become an issue as the season progressed.
This is still a player with a ton of potential, but he needs to show improvement this year or his draft stock will continue to slide.
10. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (Late 4th Round)
The evaluations of Johnny Manziel as an NFL quarterback are going to be all over the place. This kid is a lightning rod for media attention and heated debates. Manziel isn’t a traditional quarterback, but just knows how to move the football.
The issue is that Manziel is so unpredictable that I can’t imagine how an NFL offensive coordinator would develop a consistent game plan. In fact, trying to limit Manziel’s creativeness would take away his best feature.
He’s able to make plays because of his shiftiness in the pocket, quickness and ability to keep his eyes down the field while on the move. Defensives just can’t cover receivers for the amount of time Manziel is in the pocket.
As far as traditional quarterback skills, Manziel has a solid arm and does a great job getting the ball quickly out of his hand. He also shows the ability to deliver an accurate football and throw his receivers open.
It’s going to take a patient coach to deal with Manziel’s risky style of play. He’s not a quarterback every coach will be able to tolerate, but in the right setting we could see this kid change the way NFL offenses work.
NFL decision makers will also have to closely look at whether or not Manziel is mature enough to handle the responsibilities that come with being an NFL quarterback. He has shown a history of making some questionable decisions off the field.
11. Stephen Morris, Miami (Late 4th Round)
Stephen Morris is heading into a make-it-break-it type season. He has received plenty of playing time at Miami, but has yet to put it all together. The biggest concern surrounding Morris is his lack of anticipation.
He’s a see-it and throw-it quarterback who needs to do a better job throwing his receivers open. NFL defensive backs excel at reading a quarterbacks eyes and jumping the route. If Morris doesn’t learn to get the ball out quicker he’ll struggle with turnovers at the next level.
Outside of having to clean up some mental aspects of his game, Morris features the physical tools need to succeed at the next level. He has good size, a strong throwing arm and is a good looking athlete. This is a player with potential, but will need more time to fully develop.
12. Brett Hundley, UCLA (5th Round)
Brett Hundley possesses above average athleticism for the quarterback position. He has great size, a strong throwing arm and good quickness. It’s this natural ability that helps mask some of his struggles playing the quarterback position.
At UCLA, Hundley is typically asked to only read one side of the field. He rarely goes through his progressions and becomes uncomfortable when his first option is covered. In Fact, he shows a tendency to vacate the pocket if that top option is taken out of the play.
There were more than several occasions throughout the season where Hundley failed to quickly process the post-snap information. This led to him holding the ball too long, sacks and throws into coverage.
Hundley also needs to work on squaring to his target and stepping into his throws. These inconsistencies negatively impact his accuracy and ball placement. Hundley might have a ton of natural talent, but he needs a lot of work to even be considered a potential early-round pick.
13. Aaron Murray, Georgia (Late 5th Round)
Sometimes arm strength is an overvalued aspect of evaluating a quarterback prospect. However, an NFL quarterback needs a certain level of arm strength in order to attack all parts of the field.
Aaron Murray is a smart and capable college quarterback, but it’s apparent that he lacks great arm strength. He struggles to consistently generate good zip on the intermediate routes and his deep ball falls short from time to time.
Murray also needs to do a better job keeping his eyes down field when faced with pressure. Too often, he allows the defensive pressure to impact his decisions. He has a tendency to pull the ball down and run too early in his dropback.
14. Keith Price, Washington (6th Round)
Keith Price is a good athlete who features a strong throwing arm. However, he’s listed at 6’1” and it appears possible he might be a little shorter. Exacerbating his height concern is the fact he has a deep knee bend in the pocket. It’s possible that Price will have a tough time finding throwing lanes at the next level.
Everyone will want to point to Russell Wilson’s success, but not everyone has the same type of pocket presence as Wilson.
Price has a long throwing motion that features a bit of a hitch at the release point. This hinders some of the positives his strong arm brings to the table. The hitch combined with Price’s tendency to lock on to his No. 1 target makes it easier for the defensive backs to get a read on the route.
He needs to show this season that he can make quicker decisions and go through progressions. If he can improve that part of his game teams will give him a close look. Price already possesses the ability to deliver an accurate football. So, cleaning up the other areas will help evaluators overlook the size concerns.
15. Devin Gardner, Michigan (6th Round)
Devin Gardner looks to already be shaping up to be this year’s Matt Scott. The draft community has pegged him as a sleeper and someone everyone is “underrating”. However, Gardner hasn’t shown enough on the field to earn this hype. He has good athleticism and strong arm, but really a ton of work on the fundamentals of being a quarterback.
Gardner has no consistency with his release point, throwing motion or footwork. The majority of his throws are off balanced which results in a lot in accuracy. He tends to throw the ball flat footed, falling away from his target or with an open shoulder.
An NFL team will need to spend a ton of time rebuilding him from the ground up. It’s apparent that Gardner hasn’t developed the ability to read a defense. He struggles to read/understand post-snap information. If his first option is covered Gardner will hold the ball or basically just throw the ball wherever. This results in a lot of poor decisions and erratic passes. These type of plays also occur when Gardner is faced with pressure. He’ll either hold the ball and take a big hit or throw it into coverage.
While Gardner has natural talent, he’s a long way away from being a NFL-ready quarterback.
16. Brett Smith, Wyoming (Late 6th Round)
Brett Smith features a good throwing arm, solid athleticism and the ability to accurately deliver the football. He’s a real competitor who works hard to overcome the lack of talent that surrounds him.
However, there are several issues with his game that should keep him towards the later part of the draft. The biggest concern is his awkward throwing motion. He keeps his front leg very stiff and just doesn’t have a smooth stance in the pocket. This stance also drops his deliver point and allows the defense to generate tips at the line. Keeping that front leg stiff also prevents him from tying his feet to his eyes while he goes through progressions.
Any team looking at Smith will need to re-work his motion from the ground up.
17. Blake Bortles, Central Florida (7th Round)
Blake Bortles needs a strong season to work his way into the late-round mix. He’s a quarterback with good arm strength and decent zip to all areas of the field. However, he needs to clean up a lot of technical issues with his game.
Bortles is very stiff and mechanical in the pocket. He has an upright stance which limits his ability to step into his throws. There’s also a bit of a hitch in his throwing motion that elongates his release.
Any defensive pressure causes issues for Bortles, as he is quick to drop his eyes and stare at the rush. The pressure also forces him into poor decisions and a tendency to throw the ball into tight coverage.
Overall, Bortles is someone with limited potential at the next level.