Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron is going to be either: A) a first round draft pick and a solid NFL starter, or B) a colossal waste of a draft pick and NFL failure. These are his only possible fates according to the Twitterverse. He seemingly simultaneously has a big arm and a high football IQ and is simply a game manager and product of great talent around him on the Crimson Tide offense, with marginal ability. Comparisons range from Eli Manning to Greg McElroy, with little room in between. He'll have a lot of doubters to prove wrong at the next level.
Brandon Weeden was drafted in the first round by the Cleveland Browns last year, bringing a live arm and solid mechanics out of Oklahoma State. A few eyebrows were raised at him being taken as early as he was, but he was considered by many a solid prospect. His biggest detriment was his age. As a professional, he has shown flashes of being a good starter, but has struggled just as often. Like McCarron, he is either ready to breakout, or a complete bust, so a comparison of the two is valid. Which one has more potential?
One area where Weeden excels is in terms of arm strength. He displayed an ability to make all the throws in college, and has shown an aptitude for the deep ball as a pro as well. McCarron isn't known for having a big arm, though Alabama's offensive philosophy dictates that as much as he does. His arm isn't as strong as Weeden's, but it is adequate for a career in the NFL. Weeden will get a chance to show his arm in 2013, with more of a downfield attack.
Pocket presence is another area where it's difficult to make a distinction. Weeden struggled mightily in his rookie season when under pressure, with a noticeable drop in accuracy and several turnovers as a result. With McCarron, it's hard to gauge because he has rarely faced pressure due to the dominant play of his offensive line. It will be difficult to judge his presence under pressure accurately until he is in the NFL and under center.
Decision-making is an advantage for McCarron. Weeden wasn't in the best offense for his skills, but he made a lot of flawed decisions, forcing throws that resulted in incompletions and interceptions. This is something he will be forced to improve on, or his job as a starter will disappear quickly. McCarron has tremendous patience and great mechanics, and generally makes sound decisions, though again, it helps that he can sit back due to the protection he receives. Like most young quarterbacks, he trusts in his arm a little too much at times, but overall, is a smart player who avoids mistakes.
The final, and maybe biggest, factor in determining the better prospect is simply age. Weeden will turn 30 during the upcoming season, while McCarron will be just 23 when he's drafted next year. A quarterback can be great into his 30's, but taking into account the fact that it will take a few seasons to get to an elite level, even under the best of circumstances, that doesn't leave much time for him to play at that high level. McCarron could take three years to learn, then still just be in his mid-20's.
There's no definitive way to determine which of the two quarterbacks will have the better career. Both have their share of positives, but have negatives to go along with them. Weeden has a cannon arm, but McCarron has the advantage in almost every other category, especially age. He'll have more time to learn and at this point in time, has the most potential of the two.