2015 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Analyzing an All-Value Philosophy

By Vincent Frank on Monday, August 10th 2015
2015 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Analyzing an All-Value Philosophy

1. Dez Bryant, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys (Pick: 12, ADP: 8)

Picking 12th overall, you would be reaching for a running back at that position. It simply makes no sense to do that, especially with what is a deep field of players at that position this year. It also means you are likely to wait until Round 3 to nab your RB1 option, which could cause an issue in and of itself. 

Though, the value you receive at wide receiver or tight end with the final first-round pick in a 12-team draft can set you up nicely. In this particular mock, we went with my pick for the top fantasy receiver in the NFL this year. Not only did Bryant rank fourth among wide receivers in fantasy points, he was the 12th-most targeted player at that position. One has to figure that Bryant's targets will increase with the absence of DeMarco Murray in the Cowboys offense this year. That makes him a true stud. Value +4

2. Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, New England Patriots (Pick: 13, ADP: 14) 

Gronk's injury issues have to be of utmost concern to those considering him either late in the first or early in the second. With an ADP that makes him an early second-round pick, anyone selecting him better hope that he remains healthy throughout the season. The interesting dynamic here is that Gronk still finished as the top tight end last season while missing a game. The previous season saw him finish as a top-end TE2 despite missing nine games due to injury. Think about that for a second. All this is an indication that he's the most productive tight end (by far) when on the field. Banking on him to remain healthy is a bet worth taking. Value +1

3. Carlos Hyde, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers (Pick: 36, ADP: 34)

It's more than likely that Hyde's ADP will climb up as the football world gets a glimpse of him with San Francisco's starters during the preseason. As it is, he's currently the 17th running back off the board, which will end up being a ridiculous bargain when all is said and done. Backing up Frank Gore last season, the 2014 second-round pick averaged 4.2 yards per touch—a number that will increase with more consistent touches. Hyde also averaged 0.65 fantasy points per touch compared to the 0.62 Gore averaged. Now firmly in place as the 49ers top running back, there's every reason to believe that Hyde's floor is as a bottom-tier RB1 option. Not too shabby from a third-round pick. Value -2

4. Jonathan Stewart, Running Back, Carolina Panthers (Pick: 37, ADP: 45) 

Not the sexiest of picks for a RB2, and likely a reach given that we had to avoid running back by going value early on. Though, it's important to note that Stewart will be the unquestioned lead dog in Carolina's backfield with DeAngelo Williams now suiting up for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last season saw the veteran running back put up nearly 1,000 total yards and four touchdowns on just 200 touches. It was his best season since putting up nearly 1,200 yards back in 2011. As with Gronkowski, injuries have to be of concern here. After all, Stewart has missed 19 games over the past three seasons. If selecting the former first-round pick in Round 4, the idea has to be to add another potential RB2 option in the following round. That's the only way this is going to work. Value -8

5. C.J. Spiller, Running Back, New Orleans Saints (Pick: 60, ADP: 68)

Here's someone that should get play much earlier than the fifth round. If you are intent on going value and avoiding running back early, it would be an ideal scenario for Spiller to fall on to your lap in Round 5. Injuries may have derailed Spiller's career in Buffalo last season, but it's important to remember that he put up over 2,800 total yards in the previous two seasons combined. During that time, this former first-round pick caught 76 passes—an indication that he's going to be a PPR dynamo on the turf in New Orleans and in the Saints running back-friendly offense. Pretty much a perfect FLEX option in leagues that are starting to weigh running back receptions at a higher clip than in the past. Value -8

6. Brandon Marshall, Wide Receiver, New York Jets (Pick: 61, ADP: 63) 

No matter how well Geno Smith performs in 2015, Marshall will still find a way to put up solid numbers. He's going to be Smith's unquestioned No. 1 receiver in a new offense under an entirely new coaching staff. He also has a history of success we normally don't see from pass catchers at this point in the draft. Prior to an injury-plagued 2014 campaign that saw Marshall miss three games to injury, this Pro Bowler averaged well over 1,200 yards per season since 2007. He's also catching over 60 percent of the passes thrown in his direction over the course of his career. Heck, even during a down 2014 season, Marshall still found a way to put up decent numbers when he was on the field. He has a chance to be an under-the-radar WR2 option in 2015. Value -2

7. Roddy White, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons (Pick: 84, ADP: 83) 

Safe pick. No real value. Not a reach. White's ceiling may be rather low, but his floor is exceptionally high for the seventh round. The veteran put up 80 receptions for over 900 yards and seven scores last season. That was good enough for him to finish as the 26th-best fantasy receiver in the game. He also caught 65 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. If that number stays the same in 2015, and assuming White doesn't hit a wall, he should be in line for another solid season as a FLEX-level performer. Value +1

8. Eli Manning, Quarterback, New York Giants (Pick: 85, ADP: 83)

There's no real reason why Manning's ADP should have him as the 12th quarterback off the board. Following a 2014 season that saw him finish as the 10th-best fantasy quarterback, Manning will now have the best supporting cast of his career. Victor Cruz is returning from injury after missing the final 10 games last season. Odell Beckham has another year under his belt after putting up eye-opening numbers as a rookie. Heck, the Giants added PPR stud Shane Vereen from the New England Patriots in free agency. Going a full two rounds after the likes of Matt Ryan, Manning is one of the best value options in the entire fantasy football world. Value +2

Other notables

9. Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers (Pick: 108, ADP: 120)

10. Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions (Pick: 109, ADP: 77) 

11. John Brown, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals (Pick: 132, ADP: 132)

12. David Cobb, Running Back, Tennessee Titans (Pick: 133, ADP: 155)

13. Josh Hill, Tight End, New Orleans Saints (Pick: 156, ADP: 162)

14. Owen Daniels, Tight End, Houston Texans (Pick: 157, ADP: 111)

15. Roy Helu, Running Back, Oakland Raiders (Pick: 180, ADP: 226)

We used eDraft's draft simulator to conduct this mock. You can too. It's free

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