2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Green Bay Packers

By Matt Johnson on Friday, July 10th 2015
2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Green Bay Packers

2014 Review

It was another phenomenal season offensively for the Packers. They were once again led by arguably the most talented quarterback the game has ever seen, Aaron Rodgers, walking away with another NFL Most Valuable Player honor after his standard greatness.

There is always something special about one of his seasons, whether it was the 45-6 TD-INT ratio in 2011, returning to beat the Chicago Bears in Week 17 to punch Green Bay's ticket to the playoffs, his first game back since he was knocked out seven weeks prior. In 2014, he finished with a 38-5 TD-INT ratio, while playing on a partially torn calf for half the season.

When Rodgers was hurt, Green Bay relied on Eddie Lacy to make things happen and he did just that. From Week 12 to Week 17, Lacy rushed for 592 yards on 117 carries (5.05 yards per carry) with six total touchdowns. We also saw Lacy's role in the passing game evolve last season, not only establishing himself as one of the best pass-blockers at his position, but also shining out of the backfield with 42 receptions for 427 yards and four receiving touchdowns.

Lastly at receiver, it was once again the story of Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson decimating their opponents. Week to week, defensive coordinators were forced to decide whose production they wanted to limit the most. Often times they went with Nelson and as a result, Cobb broke out for a career high in receptions (91), receiving yards (1,287) and touchdowns (12). Nelson still had his own career season, setting personal bests in receptions (98), receiving yards (1,519) and adding 12 touchdowns for good measure. Rookie Davante Adams took some time to earn Rodgers' trust and his 11-catch, 121-yard performance versus the New England Patriots got many excited. But he was still a work in progress and finished with a modest 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

Veteran Additions

None

2015 NFL Draft

Ty Montgomery, Wide Receiver/Returner

When the Green Bay Packers announced their selection of Montgomery with the 94th overall pick, it came a surprise. Here was a team who needed significant help at inside linebacker and defensive tackle, taking a wide receiver in the third round. Despite a roster that already included Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis. Even with Abbrederis returning from a torn ACL, it was an odd move.

When you try and find a fit for Montgomery in an NFL offense, especially as a rookie, it's unclear. He would barely qualify as an average route runner in college, has questionable hands and struggles against physical corners. Some have wondered if he would be better off transitioning to running back, but that will take time as well.

Montgomery's role for the foreseeable future will be returning kicks for Green Bay, filling a vital role for its special teams and helping them improve its special teams. While that is big in real life, Montgomery will still be fifth or sixth on the depth chart and shouldn't even be considered for fantasy owners.

Potential Breakout Star

Richard Rodgers, Tight End

Many will have Adams as the Packers' breakout candidate, but I look towards another Rodgers from Cal. Now one thing many people will tell you is that Richard Rodgers doesn't stand out on tape, serving as an average tight end that gets open because of the system and players around him. It's true, Rodgers isn't very athletic and he won't suddenly become a burner at tight end, but two things have made me ready to take a flier on him for a good year.

Rodgers offers nice size at 6'4" and nearly 260 pounds, showing enough ability to get a little space over the middle and be a security option for the short-to-intermediate passing game. He has shown the ability, both throughout practices and during games, to catch nearly every ball thrown his way and that caught Aaron Rodgers attention last year. As Richard Rodgers developed more as a blocker and made some improvements with his route running, his role in the offense grew.

He should be even better position to see snaps after Andrew Quarless was arrested during the first week of July. It remains doubtful that Quarless remains with the team past training camp, which would make the starting job belong entirely to Rodgers.

While opposing defenses put a safety over the top of Jordy Nelson, have another corner on Adams' side and shed more help to cover Cobb, Rodgers should find Rodgers just sitting in space on many occasions. He doesn't have to rack up big yards after catch, just sit near the first down marker and pick up chunks of yards. If Quarless is gone and opposing teams focus more attention on the guys around him, I could see a low-tier TE1 season from Rodgers, when his ADP shows he has been barely been drafted.

Potential Disappointment

Davante Adams, Wide Receiver

The fantasy hype train for Adams is gaining even more steam, in part because the Packers have been talking him up so much this offseason. He will start opposite of Nelson on the outside with Cobb in the slot and you would certainly expect to see a lot of targets. But the problem with these hype trains is that they can get too fast out on the track, gaining steam from quotes from OTA's and soon you have the hype train speeding off the track and crushing every fantasy owner on it.

Here in lines the problem and why I am putting Adams as a potential disappointment this season. While Adams is currently going off the boards as the 40th wide receiver, there are several in his range and behind him I'd much rather have on my fantasy teams this season. Charles Johnson, John Brown and Kendall Wright are all more intriguing options to me in that range. While it certainly can be argued Adams is the most talented of the group and certainly has the superior quarterback, he is going to be the fourth option in the offense.

With Johnson, Brown and Wright, all three will likely be the most-targeted player in the passing game. Wright will have a better quarterback this season in Marcus Mariota, who could help him have a bounce back season. Brown is going to be a monster in Bruce Arians' offense and should be a must-own in all fantasy leagues, especially PPR. Lastly, Johnson quickly developed chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater and became his favorite target last season. I just believe there is more upside in these three receivers and you can get them later with the Adams hype train surging ahead.

Projected Statistics
Player Statistics
Aaron Rodgers 4,378 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions
Eddie Lacy 1,257 rushing yards, 302 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns
James Starks 413 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns
Jordy Nelson 89 receptions, 1,318 yards and 11 touchdowns
Randall Cobb 87 receptions, 1,214 yards and 10 touchdowns
Davante Adams 58 receptions, 864 yards and six touchdowns
Richard Rodgers 46 receptions, 523 yards and six touchdowns

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