2014 Review
Under new head coach Bill O'Brien, many thought the Houston Texans would select Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater with the first overall pick. Instead, Houston drafted Jadeveon Clowney and didn't draft a quarterback until Round 4, when they selected Tom Savage.
Savage saw the field in two games last season, seizing the starting quarterback gig to Ryan Fitzpatrick for most of the season. Fitzpatrick started 12 games, throwing for 2,843 yards, 17 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. O'Brien wanted to see what he had in Ryan Mallett after acquiring him from the New England Patriots and started him in Week 11 and 12. Mallet's first start went well against the Cleveland Browns, completing 20 of 30 pass attempts for 211 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and an 81.9 QBR.
Unfortunately, things went poorly the following week against the Cincinnati Bengals, Mallett completed just 20 of 41 attempts for 189 yards, an interception and a 20.3 QBR. Mallett. But it was later explained that he suffered a torn pectoral muscle before the game started and he was immediately ruled out for the season after the game. Now Mallett will battle it out with Brian Hoyer for the starting job.
At running back, Arian Foster and Alfred Blue were the notable names. After playing in just eight games last season, Foster played in 13 in 2014 and finished with 1,246 rushing yards, 327 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns (five receiving). When Foster wasn't on the field, Blue was there to rack up the carries. In his rookie season, he finished the season with 169 carries for 528 rushing yards, 15 receptions for 113 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. He picked up his yards largely as a result of the volume of carries, as demonstrated by his 3.1 yards per carry.
The only Texans' wide receiver left from last season is DeAndre Hopkins, who took another step forward in his second season. The Texans began to phase out Andre Johnson and as a result, Hopkins saw 127 targets. He would finish his sophomore season with 76 receptions for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns.
Veteran Additions
Brian Hoyer, Quarterback
What do you do when your quarterback situation is a mess and your best option, Fitzpatrick, leaves you? Naturally, you go hit the free agent market and sign Hoyer. If you don't remember Hoyer's tenure as the Browns' quarterback, it was not good. Hoyer completed just 55.3 percent of his passes last season and a 64.5 accuracy percentage from Pro Football Focus, which was the worst mark in the league. But despite what the numbers and tape shows on Hoyer, he has familiarity with O'Brien's offense and the Texans seem committed to below average quarterback play for another season.
Cecil Shorts, Wide Receiver
Every fantasy owner remembers Shorts breakout season in 2012, when he posted 55 receptions for 979 yards and seven touchdowns. But injuries and atrocious quarterback play held the big play receiver down from having another big fantasy season the next two years. Shorts decision to come to Houston was an interesting one. Houston's quarterback situation is just as bad as Jacksonville, but he clearly felt there was an opportunity to start and contribute if he stays healthy.
He will compete with rookie Jaelen Strong for the spot across from Hopkins, being on the field in two-receiver sets. If Strong wins out, Shorts will still slide in nicely as a slot receiver and could be a very nice contributor, but the same injury concerns and the talent-deficiency at quarterback raises a major concern for his fantasy value.
NFL Draft
Jaelen Strong, Wide Receiver
While Houston still hasn't found a quarterback, they have done an excellent job building up the structure of this team. The additions to the defensive side of the ball obviously jump out, but the focus on adding some impact receivers over the years also stands out.
The Texans selected Strong with their third round pick and immediately envisioned him having a prominent role as a rookie. Durability is a concern for Strong, it already made an appearance during OTA's when a hamstring injury kept him out, but he returned towards the end of camp. Now healthy heading into training camp, Strong will compete for the number two spot at receiver and the opportunity to be out there for two-wide sets as an every down starter.
You will notice Strong's size (6'2" and 217 lbs.) once he walks in the room, which pair very well with his 32 1/2' arms. He is a physical, smart receiver who knows how to use his body to beat out a defensive back and be in the best position to catch the football. He can adjust his body to make tough catches and has the hands and ability to make contested catches. But he is a physical receiver who lacks big-time speed and doesn't have the type of athleticism that makes opponents fear him.
He still must develop as a route runner but has the physicality to take on one-on-one coverage with the defense focused on trying to stop Hopkins. If Strong can win the position battle in training camp, he could make for very nice depth for your fantasy team and an excellent dynasty league pick.
Who to Draft
Normally, this segment would be for a player who could have a breakout season and a player who will disappoint fantasy owners. But when looking over the roster, mock draft ADP's and the situation on offense, there is no player who could dramatically go against expectations. Instead, we'll look at which Texans' players should be taken in fantasy drafts this year and when they should be selected. All ADP's come from ESPN's live draft results page.
Arian Foster:
ADP: 5th-8th Overall
Value: Average
While Foster can certainly be a top-10 running back this season, I have concerns with how often he winds up on the injury report and his propensity to miss games. In the best-case scenario, Foster plays 12 games this season and your team gets a 1,200-yard back with 10 touchdowns. I'd rather take DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, Antonio Brown or even Matt Forte. These four players are significantly more likely to play in all 16 games and still give me great production.
Alfred Blue:
ADP: 140th - 150th Overall
Value: Minimal
If Foster gets hurt and misses multiple games, Blue will become one of the hottest pickups in fantasy football. When you have a bad quarterback, your offense will rely heavily on the running game, which would mean a major workload for Blue if Foster went down. The problem is, Blue isn't a starting-caliber running back, even if he would be out there on every down. He isn't a great athlete and doesn't show the typical thumper you see in 6'2", 223 lb. running backs.
Blue is going in the last round of most drafts with team's just hoping they have him before a Foster injury. But if you're going to take a chance, go with a player who has more potential if the starter in front gets hurt, like James Starks or Cameron Artis-Payne.
DeAndre Hopkins
ADP: 36th - 42nd Overall
Value: Excellent
The only thing keeping Hopkins from being a top-seven fantasy wide receiver is his quarterback, but he will see more than enough targets to be a fantasy star regardless. Coming off a 76/1,210/6 season when his role in the offense was growing, Hopkins is now the go-to man and should see at least 150 targets this season. He could have a 90-reception, 1,300-yard, eight-touchdown season. Those are WR1 numbers, yet his ADP is right along the same round as players like Julian Edelman, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks. Simply put, you are stealing Hopkins in this range.
Texans D/ST:
ADP: 82nd - 88th Overall
Value: Decent
Taking a defense early within the first 90 picks has always been a debatable strategy. Fantasy owners looking for an elite defense on a weekly basis and offer some dominating performances. There is that benefit to it, especially when you can get five 20-point games and five games with 10-plus points. That was the Buffalo Bills D/ST last year, they scored 201 points, while the top-five rounded out with season scores of 182 (Eagles and Texans), 174 (Seahawks) and 164 (Lions).
In a best-case scenario, the Texans finish as the best defense in fantasy football this season. The problem is defenses can be inconsistent from season to season and the pre-season fantasy rankings always look very different than the end of season points. So if you take the Texans' defense in the 80-90 range, you could very well be taking a defense over Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant, Tony Romo, Nelson Agholor and Ameer Abdullah. It might be worth it for those who are drawn to the big-time defense, but I find you can still have great success picking defenses based off weekly matchups and using that mid-round pick on a high-upside running back, receiver or even quarterback.
Projected Statistics | Player | Statistics |
| Brian Hoyer | 2,587 yards, 13 TD's and 14 INT's |
| Ryan Mallett | 1.381 yards, 6 TD's and 4 INT's |
| Arian Foster | 1,138 rushing yards, 387 receiving yards and nine touchdowns |
| Alfred Blue | 356 rushing yards, 102 receiving yards and two touchdowns |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 91 receptions, 1,307 yards and eight touchdowns |
| Jaelen Strong | 53 receptions, 625 yards and four touchdowns |
| Cecil Shorts | 38 receptions, 473 yards and two touchdowns |