It’s easy to assume because a rookie is drafted first overall or first amongst his peers for his position, that he is the best player and talent, so therefore will undoubtedly be the best performer when it comes to the world of fantasy football, but leave that narrow minded thinking for the chumps who you’ll be collecting from at season's end.
Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham Jr., and Jeremy Hill were all drafted outside the top-10 and had some of the best fantasy seasons of not just their fellow rookies but out of the entire league. Even guys like Tre Mason and Martavis Bryant were late add ons as free-agent pick ups and helped soften the blow of early season busts like Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson, proving it's not where a player was drafted, but where and what environmental situation they land in.
Throw out what round these guys were drafted in and where they ranked before the draft, and instead focus on their surrounding talent, who's throwing them the ball, and what competition (if any) they face for getting on the field for early playing time.
5. Maxx Williams, Tight End, Baltimore Ravens
Just ask yourself, “who’s throwing this guy the ball?”. A simple yet effective way to weed through the rubbage and make tough decisions when narrowing your list of targets for the 2015 season. While the obvious play here is the understanding of just how good a talent Williams is as he was the best tight-end in the country and it wasn’t even that close, both from a production standpoint with the Minnesota Gophers and form a pure talent standpoint.
This monster of a target can go up and pluck balls out of thin air outside the hash marks and down the seams on the football field with his opposing frame, length, and strong hands. Even more important than his sheer raw ability though, is his offensive playbook that caters to Williams’ strengths in a tight-end friendly system. The Ravens way is to ground-and-pound a conservative offensive game plan and let their defense beat you up and take your lunch money.
Enter Williams who will feed and thrive off play-action passes both on third downs and more importantly in the redzone for Joe Flacco who is desperate for a consistent pass-catcher in between the hash marks. While the veteran Steve Smith continues to be effective his role will be as a mentor for first-round pick Breshad Perriman, making both wide receivers a tough choice to commit to. Meanwhile Williams will give Flacco a big target that is as consistent as they come for the position and more reliable than the man he will beat out, Dennis Pitta, and that's without playing a single down yet.
4. Tevin Coleman, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons
With last years fourth-round pick Devonta Freeman failing to make a lasting impression when given the opportunity Coleman literally runs into a phenomenal situation. One of the most talented running backs in an ultra-talented class Coleman may have been the first off the board for his position had he came out another year. The Hoosier productive was highly productive in the Big-Ten and is a nightmare when in open space for defenders to grasp hold of.
Enter the Atlanta Falcons offense that possesses one of the best passing attacks in the entire league with crafty veteran Roddy White and playmaking freak Julio Jones (also drafted one of my favorite wide-outs of the class Justin Hardy as their slot man). With Matt Ryan sniping secondaries like a scene out of, well, “The Sniper”, defenses have no other choice but to soften up their coverage with their front-seven players. This means Coleman won’t see many, if any, eight or nine men box looks and adversely will be running through lanes made for semi-trucks.
Getting Coleman out into open space is the key to this equation as thats where he is at his best and most effective. With a dangerous supporting cast in the passing-attack Coleman should be a monster outside the tackles, and on underneath routes and screens.
Add in the fact Coleman gets to play inside in a dome and control climate more times than not this season and the scene is set for a wildly productive rookie year with not much standing in his way as the day-one starter.
3. Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
A match made in heaven, Tyler Lockett was uncoverable at the Senior Bowl as a quick, twitchy, sure handed speedster, an attribute profile that fits the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson to a T.
With a current vanilla flavored depth chart in place of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Ricardo Lockette, rookie Lockett has very little talented competition to beat out during training-camp. By week one Lockett should be entrenched as one of the top-three wideouts on the roster and offer the offense a fresh scene of real talent.
While Lockett will evolve into one of the best wide receivers on the team by years end the real beauty in his situation is how the Seahawks run their offense with a focal point on running the ball with Marshawn Lynch. With Lynch taking the large majority of attention from opposing defenses and newly acquired Jimmy Graham taking the rest, Lockett is in a prime spot to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities, something I can speak first hand he's done his entire career.
2. Melvin Gordon, Running Back, San Diego Chargers
Lets stop fooling around here and get to the bread-and-butter of the rookie class. While an obvious choice because of his sheer talent as an explosive back who compares to Jamaal Charles with his speed and home-run hitting ability, Gordon enters the once crowded Chargers backfield as the team's sudden only child.
Gordon won’t be sharing carries with anyone on this current roster which means he will touch the ball at least 25 times on any given Sunday between the run and the passing game.
Speaking of the passing game, this is where things get even better for Gordon who will be playing with a still talented top-10 veteran behind center in Philip Rivers, a quarterback who understands how to read defenses and check into the right play call at the line of scrimmage, all music to Gordon’s ears.
Unlike the Badgers offense that revolved around Gordon and his talents the Chargers have capable playmakers around him like budding star receiver Keenan Allen and the newly acquired Stevie Johnson. The days of nine-men in the box are few-and-far between for Gordon who has all the bases covered while wearing powder blue with his guaranteed workload, savvy veteran quarterback, and surrounding talent.
1. Jameis Winston, Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The days of letting your rookie quarterback sit on the pine with a clipboard and headset for three-years as he grooms himself up to the top of the depth chart are long gone as owners, fans, and coaches have a “win now” mindset and attitude when it comes to their ball club.
History tells us this gameplan tends to fire back into the faces of organizations who expunge an early draft pick on the quarterback which is one of the hardest positions to transition to from the college ranks to the pros.
In the rare case a rookie quarterback does come in and make a positive impact right away there are a few constant variables to the equation that are in place to help them succeed. The most obvious is surrounding the quarterback with talent and giving him the toys to bail him out and help take the load of pressure off their shoulders from time to time. In Winston’s case he has a treasure chest full of goodies from 6’5” jump ball master Vincent Jackson to last years rookie Mike Evans who was one of the best receivers in the entire league in 2014 at just 22 years old. Add to the pile basketball tight-end Austin Jenkins, multidimensional running back Charles Sims, and a handful of new offensive lineman all who possess their own strengths and talents.
Winston won’t be perfect in year one as no rookie quarterback ever is, but the one tangible that he brings to the table is his football IQ and understanding of the game. The best whiteboard tester since Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning the one thing fans don't need to worry about with Winston is his ability to digest the playbook, even an NFL sized one giving him a huge advantage over some of his fellow rookie peers.
When it comes to fantasy football the rules, guidelines, and scripts are different. Getting players who can produce at a modest cost in the mid-to-late rounds is a must if you plan on hosting your league's championship trophy. Winston might not be one of the first 15 quarterbacks drafted which means you can get him for a buck in your auction leagues, but it's his upside as a quarterback who is loaded with talent surrounding him at every corner and understanding to know how to get them the ball.
Don’t forget, the Bucs defense ranked 25th in total yards last season. Why is that important? Well, Winston and his starting-five basketball goons will be forced to play catch up early-and-often each Sunday, and while that may mean his completion percentage and interceptions may be pumped up, it also means his stat line and fantasy numbers project to be far greater than the dirt price you scored him for on draft night.
Now that you know how cheap and effective Winston will be, what's stopping you from pairing him up with Evans and Jackson for a deliciously dangerous combo that will leave your bankroll with enough for a solid pair of running backs and some crab legs to spare.
Follow Luke Inman on Twitter @Luke_Spinman