No matter your team's record last season, this time of year gives every fan a combination of hope and optimism. As a Vikings fan, it's exactly why I’ve been following the NFL Draft with passion for over a decade. Like clockwork, the exact moment the football season ends, the film study, scouting reports, and mock draft season begins.
A long and tedious process has its rewards though, as it sets you ahead of the curve as a talent evaluator, and combined with recent league trends, gives you an idea of what players actually have the transferable talent to make it at the next level.
Still, no matter how much research and film you study, it's inevitable your mock draft will be in smoke within the first 10 picks. Every year, some team manages to come out from right-field and shock the draft community with a pick that leaves our jaw dropped.
Last year, it only took three picks until the Jacksonville Jaguars added some spice to the draft by selecting quarterback Blake Bortles. Soon after that, the Buffalo Bills mortgaged a chunk of their future for wide receiver Sammy Watkins. In 2013 the Miami Dolphins traded up to the third pick to draft versatile, outside linebacker Dion Jordan, who has more suspensions than sacks in his career.
One of my favorite draft day surprises came in 2006, when the Bills selected safety Donte Whitner with the eighth pick. He wasn’t being projected until the late first round, appearing like a reach for Buffalo. This taught methat it only takes one team to fall in love with a prospect, throwing the “consensus value” out the window. Whitner has gone on to have a solid career, while the jury is still out on the other two prospects mentioned above.
As we approach the moment the Tampa Bay Buccaneers officially go on the clock in the 2015 NFL Draft, I've learned to keep a constant open-mind on picks and teams, as the NFL is in a constant state of evolution. But, the one thing I can sit here and tell you I know for sure, is that when it comes to the NFL draft, nothing is for sure.
1. Four Offensive Lineman Drafted in Top-10
Supply and demand as the saying goes. In a league where passing has become a hotter trend than a 15-year old Snapchatting a selfie of her Starbucks, protecting the quarterback goes hand-in-hand. Every good coach knows the key to winning starts up front, and thats why teams are in constant search of better offensive linemen. In fact, the last insider I talked to regarding the OL, said teams should spend their first-round pick on an offensive lineman once every five-years, no matter the situation.
History shows us the trends continue in a copycat league. especially after seeing the immense dividends the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles received after drafting linemen early. Last year, nine offensive-lineman were drafted in the first 50-picks, while there were nine offensive-lineman drafyed in the first in 2013.
Even in a deep class of edge rushers, the trends shows that enforcing the trenches is still equally as important. Which is exactly why I have four offensive-lineman pegged to land in the first-ten picks even though the group as a whole hasn’t garnished that kind of attention or prediction.
As it stands I have the Washington Redskins grabbing the best run-blocker, Brandon Scherff, in the draft to help aid Jay Gruden’s run-option offense. In New York, Jets' head coach Todd Bowles looks to get gritty upfront with the safe pick, La'el Collins, who can start all over the offensive line. The New York Giants and St. Louis Rams follow suit with Stanford's Andrus Peat and Miami’s Ereck Flowers.
Want more? You could make a legitimate case the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons could dip into the position as well. While the Jaguars would likely do so only if they traded down (don’t be surprised if that happened) while the Falcons could pull the trigger on another offensive-lineman with the eighth pick.
While those are just my predictions history shows us to expect a similar trend stemming off of previous years past, and while I used my own personal rankings when projecting prospects to each respective team guys like Oregon's Jake Fisher, Pittsburgh’s TJ Clemmings, Florida’s DJ Humphries, and Oklahoma’s Daryl Williams are all very closely ranked in talent and won’t be far behind.
2. Running Backs Shatter the Perception
In 2013 just six running backs were drafted in the first three rounds while last year there was eight to go in the first 100-picks, and of those 14 players to hear their names called zero of them were drafted in the first-round.
This year even with the perception of the running back position being devalued due to the heavy passing trends set around the league (68 percent pass to 32 percent run ratio) the fact remains it is still a vital piece to any and every teams success specifically late in the year and in the playoffs.
While it was once a scientific fact that to win in December and January you needed an effective running game and a top-10 defense however, with the newest trends evolving the game it isn't a known necessity but it does make things a whole hell of a lot easier, and I expect teams to understand this philosophy. On top of the deepest and richest class of tailbacks we've encountered in a decade its this understanding as to why I expect 12 of the position to be selected within the first 100-picks including three in the first round alone. Besides the obvious Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon there will be a third of their kind to sneak into the last five-picks of day-one. Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, and Duke Johnson are all strong possibilities for that but with so much talent it will come down to the eye of the beholder.
In such a talented pool of running backs every team will be pushing and shoving to get their way into the front of the line just to get a piece of the pie.
3. Copy Cat League
It happens every year – the Super Bowl winner gets slapped with a target on their back, as well as having all 31 other teams copy their recipe for success. In 2013 the Seahawks bulldozed their way to the top with one of the best running games in the league, as well as a ferocious defense. More specifically, in a pass-heavy league, Seattle’s secondary was the heart of its team, with big, physical, and talented players at cornerback and safety.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" was the motto and rightfully so as they took the exact same game plan and headed back to the championship game for a second year in a row last season only to be struck down by the toughest quarterback/coach combo to go down in history. Still, teams will continue to follow their blueprint to success looking for the next eventual pieces to their own “Legion of Boom”.
In 2013 Kenny Vaccaro was no surprise to be drafted on day-one, but when Eric Reid and Matt Elam snuck their way in as well, it made people notice the trend. In 2014 and with an extremely deep draft class, many people were wondering what names and positions will be worthy of a first-round pick, and I assured people safety was one position that every team now highly covets based purely off the trends and talent that draft had to offer. Sure enough Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Jimmie Ward, Calvin Pryor and Deone Bucannon were soaked up by the end of day-one.
This year however, the 2015 class of safeties has been dubbed as one of the weakest and depleted for the position we've witness in years. But pay attention because this is where it gets interesting. While many expect that to equate to teams ignoring the position altogether until a few of their later round “value” prospects are in arms reach on day-three, I'm expecting close to the opposite as teams will find or “create” their own opportunities at the position. This means teams using their resources at hand and turning projected cornerbacks with versatile traits and draft them as a safety.
While Alabama’s Landon Collins has been the clear cut number one safety in the class for months with little options behind him I think you will see a run on guys like Miami (Ohio) Quinten Rollins, Utah’s Eric Rowe, UConn’s Byron Jones and a few others to be drafted in the first-50 picks and for them to be drafted as eventual safeties. Just because this class of safeties looks weak and depleted on the surface scouts and general managers have done their due diligence and players like the ones I've mentioned, although raw, have big time potential as a player in the backend of a team's defense. Add in other rising prospects at the position like Arizona State’s Damarius Randall, Samford’s Jaquiski Tartt, and Louisville’s James Sample and all of a sudden there is some big time potential talent at one of the most desired positions in the league. So while it may be an unorthodox way to get there I expect this league to continue their copycat ways.
Bonus Bold Predictions
Mariota to the Eagles
I've been riding this train for months now sitting up front in shotgun with the conductor throwing wood on the fire. Step back and think about it for a second, when you think Chip Kelly and his high-flying high paced offense the last person you think running that system is Sam Bradford.
The addition of Bradford was part of the long con and eventual key piece to landing the former Oregon product. The Cleveland Browns have already gone on record they at one point were ready to give up their first-round pick up for Bradford. When that indeed does come to fruition (likely hours before the draft itself) then the Eagles will own picks 19 and 20. From there they will add in a few solid veteran starters such as linebacker Mychal Kendricks (who is much more expendable with the recent addition of Kiko Alonso) and defensive lineman Fletcher Cox to move up to the number two slot where Chip Kelly gets the one guy he's coveted from the get go allowing him to unleash his full playbook and offensive wizardry into the NFL. These two belong together like Ryan Seacrest and Crest white strips and the universe will align the stars on Thursday to make sure it happens allowing a new era of offensive football in the NFL to begin.
(Me in the future reading a book, if they still have those in the future)
“Sit down and listen up kids, I'm going to tell you a story about the NFL, and how it was changed forever. First there was Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, then came along Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota…”
Elite Talent Falls to Elite Franchises
It happens every year for numerous reasons some of the top-talent in the draft seem to slip further than they should, and typically its the most consistent winning teams picking in the bottom-half of the first round that wait patiently for them to fall into their laps. Of course this in no coincidence that the best drafting teams stay competitive on a yearly basis and become playoff contenders nearly every December.
This year guys who have elite, top-end talent, but have been flagged and cited for a troubled history or checkered past will continue the trend of falling out of their range of talent, and will likely be scooped up once again to franchises that give more times than not teach them quickly how to survive off-the-field and in the locker room in the NFL.
Three guys you should keep your radar on that will be pushed down draft boards and land in the right spot to help fasten their maturing process are cornerback Marcus Peters, defensive end Randy Gregory, and wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.
In my latest mock draft I have Peters landing in Pittsburgh where Mike Tomlin will teach him the Steelers way of harnessing his feisty physical natured style of play in between the field hashes only. I can't think of a better landing spot for both parties as the Steelers continue their historic ways with a smash-mouth defense that looks to send a message.
Randy Gregory gets picked up by the Cincinnati Bengals who plummeted to one of the worst teams at getting after the quarterback once Mike Zimmer left. This organization is notorious for giving troubled yet talented athletes a chance for a fresh start and new beginning such as Adam Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict. Gregory will be next in line as a guy who has top-10 talent and fills a huge need for the team while being mentored by one of the best coaches in the league.
Finally Dorial Green-Beckham, who is this years Johnny Manziel in the fact that he has become one of the most polarizing figures of this draft class while becoming the biggest wildcard when it comes to projecting his draft slot. Ultimately though, I'm looking at the Baltimore Ravens at pick 26 to pull the trigger on arguably the best receiver in the entire class based of his size, speed, and talent alone. With the departure of Torrey Smith the wideout position has a gaping hole and not many general managers nail their picks like the great Ozzie Newsome. If Newsome is confident enough that his staff and organization can keep his head on straight then there won't be a bigger steal in the draft than this. With his ability to stretch the field vertically the only thing Green-Beckham needs is a strong-armed quarterback to sling him the ball down field. Enter Joe Flacco stage left, as the rich get richer.