With just four weeks left before the NFL draft opens for business, I grabbed my two favorite “draft gurus” from the draft Twitter community, and ran down a one-round rapid fire Twitter mock draft. With elite football minds like Patrick Conn and others its safe to say there was plenty of outside the box thinking.
The first wild-card selection of the night came from the Washington Redskins after Dan Snyder and the front office decided to pass and had their bluff called out on selecting Marcus Mariota. Instead, the team went with offensive tackle La’el Collins who has major upside, but is a much riskier pick than Iowa’s Brandon Scherff. Still, a solid pick for a team that is ready to revolve the weekly game plan around a run-option oriented offense, but not the splashy and sexy pick Snyder usually goes for.
Scherff didn’t last long however, in a copycat league the Falcons passed on an edge-rusher and decided to get more physical up front. After watching teams like the Cowboys and Eagles reap the benefits of investing numerous early round picks on the position I expect many teams to follow suit in this years draft, similar to what the Falcons did here. Teaming Scherff up next to last years top-10 pick Jake Matthews is a dangerously effective combination and will do wonders for the run game as well as a pure pocket passer like Matt Ryan.
You can't call it a run until you get three of the same position, and the New York Giants were clearly up for that with the very next pick, selecting offensive tackle Andrus Peat from Stanford. A guy who has gotten a lot of mixed reviews as far as overall talent goes, Peat shows some solid games but mixes it with poor mobility and a weak punch. Keeping your pocket passers up right and buying them that extra second time are things I'm all for, but you have to wonder if the Giants felt the walls caving in and panicked after two of the same position was picked before them. Even so the first-round saw a total of six offensive linemen hear their name called in the 32-pick span.
With the inability to predict trades, mock drafts like this are very difficult to assume they will be more accurate than not, on draft day. However, they are a great tool to use to show us a strong basis, and idea, of the different scenarios of how the draft may actually play out. The more scenarios that we look at, combined with the patterns of teams and general managers picks history, we are able to break down and analyze this information, ultimately forming an educated guess.
With my GM cap still fastened tight, here are the biggest takeaways I took from “Monday’s Twitter Mock Draft” which can be viewed here
Who’s trading the farm for Mariota?
While it’s nearly impossible to predict trades in a ridiculously weak class of quarterbacks its nearly a foregone conclusion in my mind that after Jameis Winston is selected number one overall, one team will be trading up for Marcus Mariota with the second selection. You can cut the list down to single digits when examining which teams are in need for a quarterback and even more so when viewing what teams have enough ammo to move up.
While the Redskins persist they are in the market and willing to take Mariota if he should fall to them at number five, teams like the Jets, Browns, Eagles, Chargers, and Saints all seem to have a case for a move up to grab the signal caller as well. Of those five teams listed, the Browns and the Saints clearly have the most ammo with multiple first-round picks and numerous picks inside the top-100. However, I am here to tell you now not to sleep on Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. Remember, Kelly recruited and molded the Hawaiian product into a college sensation and now has the same offensive game plan built for him in the pros.
Although he just traded for Sam Bradford, when you think of Kelly’s offense the last person I want running that high-tempo system is a pocket-passer coming off three knee injuries in just as many seasons. A scenario where the Eagles send Bradford to the Browns for a first-round pick (something they were rumored to be offered weeks ago) and from there use both picks (and a player to be named) to move up to grab Mariota isn't that unrealistic and far fetched. Especially once you get to know the type of loose and aggressive attitude Kelly has had since moving into the NFL.
Biggest Reach: Jalen Strong, Pick 16, Houston Texans
I already ripped on the Giants for hitting the panic button and reaching on Andrus Peat with the ninth-overall pick earlier so the Texans take the hit here as the second biggest reach in our latest mock draft. After the “big-three” wide receivers it’s so hard to find any value at the position with a grab bag of guys full of risks and rewards that are all near the same grade. Strong isn’t the fourth best receiver and isn’t even in my top-five however, some people are higher on him than others. Linebacker is a much higher need for the Texans and with guys like Shaq Thompson, Paul Dawson, and Shane Ray on the board this pick has a lot of Texans fans on edge. I don’t have a problem with taking Strong to help fill the void left by Andre Johnson, but not at pick 16 as a trade down seems like the best possible option.
Biggest Steal: Shane Ray, Pick 31, New Orleans Saints
After trading Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills the Saints seem to be stuck in some sort of awkward rebuilding phase. The good news is with two first-round picks and five selections inside the top-100 they have the most ammunition to do a lot of damage. The Saints came away with two of the top two pass rushers in Randy Gregory and Shane Ray. After a failed drug test the former “top-five lock” Gregory is slipping down draft boards and fell in the Saints lap, a move they thought was too good to be true.
However, when another top-10 player fell all the way down to their 31st selection the sound of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan literally cracking a bottle of Miller High Life inside the Saints war room could be heard. Although the majority of his issues are found on the field the Missouri product Ray has knocks of his own, mainly brought on by his lack of size and strength for the NFL. The fact remains Ray has tremendous burst off the ball and is tremendous at getting into the backfield and causing havoc. Grabbing not one, but two of the top edge rushing prospects is a beautiful beginning to a new and improve defense that will so be demanding attention from their front seven. From here the Saints can look to add a playmaker to replace Graham with their remaining picks in the second and third rounds.
Runner Up: Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Pick 26, Baltimore Ravens
Nobody is better at staying true to their board and selecting the best player available consistently year after year, exactly why after building multiple championship teams under that same philosophy Ozzie Newsome will go down as one of the best general managers of our time. So no surprise here that the team selects Kentucky’s Bud Dupree after falling much further than most would have anticipated. Dupree gets lost in a deep and rich class of edge rushers but has an explosive blend of acceleration, power, and pass rushing moves. Five years from now don’t be surprised if Dupree is one of the best of the bunch, especially after landing in one of the best organizations in football.
Best Players Available
5. Ronald Darby, Cornerback, FSU
4. Owa Odighizuwa, Defensive End, UCLA
3. Eric Rowe, Cornerback/Safety, Utah
2. Malcom Brown, Defensive Tackle, Texas
1. T.J. Clemmings, Offensive Tackle, Pittsburgh