In the third installment of a 12-part mock draft series, we give you the best-possible scenario when tasked with picking third overall in a 12-team, half-point PPR draft. Like all the mocks in this series, the picks were made through our mock draft simulator with the other 11 teams being auto-picked based on ADP and team need.
Here's how it turned out.
1. Todd Gurley, Running Back, Los Angeles Rams (David Johnson)
We could have gone with David Johnson with the third pick. Though, with Adrian Peterson off the board, that was really the only other option if we were to go running back early. The only difference here is that Gurley will likely be tasked with putting up 350-plus rush attempts on a Rams offense that's going to feature a rookie quarterback in Jared Goff.
Despite missing the first three games of his rookie season to injury, Gurley still finished as the seventh-best running back in half-point PPR leagues (the scoring we're using in this specific mock). He also finished fourth in fantasy consistency (15-plus points), which is an indication the second-year running back will be that reliable option you're looking for at the top of the draft.
2. Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints
With 84 catches on 129 targets (65 percent catch rate), Cooks was darn good in terms of PPR production last season. The only reason he finished as a top-end WR2 and not a top-12 option is due to the fact that he caught just nine touchdowns. With Marques Colston no longer in New Orleans, we can expect Cooks' red-zone targets to increase. He's definitely a top-seven option with Drew Brees under center. He also finished as a top-12 fantasy receiver in terms of consistency.
3. LeSean McCoy, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Despite missing four games a season ago, McCoy finished as a top-tier RB2 in 12-team leagues last season. All said, he put up nearly 1,200 total yards. As with Cooks above, the primary issue here was the fact that McCoy scored just three touchdowns. With Karlos Williams suspended for the first four games, that likely won't be an issue in 2016.
4. Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers
Despite missing Jordy Nelson for the entire season and putting up his worst statistical performance since 2008, Rodgers still finished last season as the seventh-best fantasy quarterback. With Nelson back in the mix, this appears to be Rodgers' floor this upcoming season. Here's a guy that finished second in fantasy points among quarterbacks in 2012 and 2014 (missed seven games in 2013). As of right now, Rodgers' ADP suggests that he's the second-best fantasy quarterback behind Cam Newton. Nabbing him in the fourth round is a solid value pick.
5. Travis Kelce, Tight End, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce finished last season as the seventh-best fantasy tight end. He caught over 70 percent of the 103 balls thrown in his direction and ranked sixth in fantasy consistency. It's all about projection when taking him off the board a round or two higher than his ADP would suggest. We already know Kelce is a favorite red-zone target of Alex Smith's. Though, his five touchdowns a season ago might lead some to believe this isn't the case. Based on his high target rate (23 percent) inside the other team's 20, we can expect double-digit scores in 2016.
6. John Brown, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
The expectation here has to be that Brown will continue to progress as a reliable target for Carson Palmer heading into his third season with the Cardinals. Last year saw this small-school product finish as a bottom end WR2 in 12-team leagues. He caught 65 passes for over 1,000 yards and seven scores. He did this while barely hitting the century mark in terms of targets. That's where projection comes in. Let's say Brown reaches the 150-target plateau this upcoming season. That should enable him to catch 90-plus passes for 1,400-plus yards and double-digit scores — numbers that would obviously make him a WR1 in 12-team leagues.
7. Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
After spending two of our first three picks on running backs, we had to go with high-upside possibilities at wide receiver entering the mid rounds. Lockett is potentially the highest-upside young fantasy receiver in the game. Once he took on a larger role on the outside with Doug Baldwin moving inside during his rookie season, this Kansas City product dominated. All said, Lockett caught 74 percent of the passes thrown in his direction as a rookie, finishing with 14-plus fantasy points in five of his last 10 games.
8. Michael Crabtree, Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders
Talk about PPR production here. Crabtree was targeted a whopping 146 times in his first season with the Raiders, catching 85 passes for 922 yards and nine scores. This enabled him to finish as a mid-tier WR2 in 12-team leagues. While that's likely Crabtree's ceiling with Amari Cooper expected to take on a larger role, you simply can't pass up this type of production in the mid rounds.
9. Chris Ivory, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars
We have no idea how well Ivory will perform in his first season with the Jaguars. What we do know is that he finished last season as the 10th-best fantasy running back, compiling nearly 1,300 yards to go with eight touchdowns. Even if Ivory's touches (247 rush attemtps last season) are down, he should find a way to finish as a mid-tier RB2 option. Though, we'd warn against you actually assuming those carries will go down, even with T.J. Yeldon in the mix in Jacksonville.
Others
10. Jerick McKinnon, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
11. Karlos Williams, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
12. Andy Dalton, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals
13. Jason Witten, Tight End, Dallas Cowboys
14. Buffalo Bills, Defense/Special Teams
15. Dan Bailey, Dallas Cowboys