After 20 weeks, it’s finally here. The Super Bowl is setting up to be a great matchup, with both No. 1 seeds facing off in New York for the NFL Championship.
Granted, we still have to get through (sigh) the Pro Bowl before we can get there, but it’s never too early to look at what will factor into the outcome of this game.
5. Seattle playing on the road
It might be critical to say that the Seahawks wouldn’t be in the Super Bowl if they didn’t have home-field advantage for the conference championship, but there’s certainly a compelling argument there.
Russell Wilson has only lost one game at home in his two years as a pro, so it will be interesting to see what Seattle will do when they have to travel completely across the country to play at a neutral site.
Two of Seattle’s three losses this season were on the road, one of which was in Indianapolis.
Last season, when Seattle was knocked out of the playoffs in the divisional round, they lost their playoff game on the road in Atlanta, and all five of their losses came on the road.
As a winning team, it’s not like Seattle never wins on the road, but there is certainly an advantage that they lose by traveling far away to play in New York rather than Seattle in front of the 12th man.
4. Who Wins the Rushing Battle?
We’ve been going over this every week, but if we’ve learned anything from this year’s playoffs, it’s that having a passing game isn’t everything.
San Francisco lost to Seattle because Frank Gore couldn’t get going, and Marshawn Lynch had a 100-yard game.
New England defeated the colts in the divisional round because LeGarrette Blount had a monster game.
For the Broncos, it’s great to have Peyton Manning, but Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball need to have solid games if they want to win.
In Denver’s three losses this season, they were out-gained on the ground in two of them. The Broncos lost to New England in a weird game despite picking up more yards on the ground, but the Colts ran for almost 60 more yards than Denver in a win, and the Chargers beat the Broncos by controlling the clock and rushing for 177 yards compared to Denver’s 18.
If Lynch can rip off a 130-yard game, and the defensive line of the Seahawks can contain Moreno and Ball, Seattle will be at a significant advantage.
3. Denver’s secondary
Heading into the playoffs, the Broncos biggest weakness was their defense. But against the Patriots, the unit really stepped up against Tom Brady, and they’ll need to again against a significantly less intimidating quarterback.
Wilson is an effective quarterback, but he’s not going to be making huge plays. In Seattle’s loss to the Colts in Week 5, Wilson finished with just a 48.4 percent completion percentage, and in the Week 16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals he had only 108 passing yards.
On Sunday, Wilson had 215 yards, but if you take away a long touchdown pass to Doug Baldwin, he would have had just 164 yards.
San Francisco’s secondary lost Baldwin on that play and the defensive line allowed Wilson to get out of the pocket.
If Champ Bailey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can focus in on Baldwin and Percy Harvin (when and if he makes it into the game), it would be tough for Wilson to out-duel Manning.
2. Julius Thomas
He’s far from the biggest name on Denver’s roster, but the tight end could end up being the unsung factor in the Super Bowl.
Thomas has had a great season, but needs to come up big against Seattle’s strong secondary.
Kam Chancellor essentially reduced Vernon Davis to a pile of dust on Sunday, significantly hurting San Francisco’s passing attack, and Denver can’t afford to have Thomas only pull down one or two catches.
Thomas didn’t play in Denver’s overtime loss to the Patriots during the regular season, but in the losses to Indy and San Diego, he had just a combined 90 yards, after going over 90 yards in three games.
In Denver’s two playoff games, he’s had a combined 14 receptions for an average of 11.5 yards per reception. If he can put up those kinds of numbers, it will force Chancellor or Richard Sherman to focus in on him, leaving someone like Wes Welker or Eric Decker on a lesser cornerback (assuming Demaryius Thomas draws a big assignment).
1. Peyton Manning
This seems almost too easy, but it’s completely true.
If Manning comes out and plays a similar game to the one he had in the AFC Championship, the Broncos have a great chance to win.
Sure, his arm strength isn’t what it used to be, but Manning is so good at changing the play at the line and makes so many smart plays on the field that he will make it almost impossible for Wilson and Seattle’s offense to keep up.
The Seahawks benefitted on Sunday from two big Colin Kaepernick mistakes—a fumble and an interception (not the game-ending one) that was just a poor decision by Kaepenrick—but Manning simply won’t be making those same kinds of mistakes.
But there’s not arguing with the effectiveness of Seattle’s defense. If their defense can hurry Manning and can exploit his waning arm strength, it could be a long day for the Broncos.