There’s a reason why this game is airing as the later of the two conference championship game.
OK, well there’s the whole thing that Seattle is on the West Coast, but besides that, this matchup is sure to be the better of the two and frankly, one of the best games of the season.
After a very competitive game between these two teams in Week 14 that saw San Francisco come out on top, and a blowout win by Seattle all the way back in Week 2, this one should be a defensive battle that will decide who goes on to the Super Bowl.
So what will be the deciding factors in this one?
5. Richard Sherman
The 49ers showed last week how effective they can be with wide receiver Anquan Boldin gets going.
In the divisional round, Boldin had 136 yards and completely swung the momentum of the game in San Francisco’s favor. This time around, Sherman needs to lock down Boldin to make sure that doesn’t happen to the Seahawks.
Granted, the chances of Sherman allowing 150 receiving yards to one guy is pretty low to begin with, but the importance of him having a strong outing is emphasized here.
In the regular season, Boldin led the 49ers in receiving yards in 10 games. Michael Crabtree was missing for most of those games, but taking Boldin out of the game severely limits Colin Kaepernick’s options to just Crabtree and Vernon Davis, who has had just three receptions in two playoff games this year.
When the 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 14, Boldin had 93 yards, and had just one catch for seven yards in the Week 2 loss.
Sherman needs to make sure Boldin has a similar game to his Week 2 outing.
4. Vernon Davis
Although we covered this last week before the divisional matchup, Davis’s performance is still a huge factor in the 49ers’ success.
They have managed to win two road playoff games despite Davis playing pretty poorly in both games. His value has been salvaged by scoring a touchdown in each game, but he’s been targeted 11 times, coming down with just three catches.
San Francisco had a tough time sustaining drives on Sunday, losing the time of possession battle to Carolina despite coming away with a win.
Similar to Boldin, Davis had just three receptions for 20 yards in the Week 2 loss, but in the 49ers’ win earlier in the year, Davis only had two receptions, but one of them was for a touchdown.
In the last six of San Francisco’s wins in the regular season, Davis scored a touchdown in all but one of the games, and averaged at least 10 yards per catch in all but one (spoiler alert: he didn’t have a catch in San Francisco’s Week 16 win over the Atlanta Falcons).
Not much more to go over here after last week, but it still is worth stating that Davis needs to have a big game if the 49ers want to get past Seattle’s tough defense.
3. The turnover battle
It’s pretty cliché to say that whichever team doesn’t turn the ball over wins. But with these two teams in this situation, turnovers can really be magnified.
Seattle and San Francisco were one and two, respectively, at the top of the NFC in turnover ratio this season, with the Seahawks ranking atop of the NFL.
Going back to the Week 2 victory for the Seahawks, they forced Kaepernick to throw three interceptions and he lost a fumble, while Seattle didn’t lose a single fumble and Russell Wilson only had one interception.
Last week, San Francisco forced the Panthers to commit two turnovers (committing none themselves), while the Seahawks didn’t turn the ball over once against the New Orleans Saints, while they forced a Mark Ingram fumble.
It’s pretty safe to say that whoever wins the turnover battle this one will win the game.
2. Who runs the ball better?
In the divisional round, the teams that ran the ball the best came out on top.
San Francisco out-gained the Panthers 126-93 on the ground, New England crushed the Colts in the run game 234 yards to 69, the Broncos had 133 rushing yards to San Diego’s 65, and finally, the Seahawks had just over 70 rushing yards more than the Saints.
So, the winner of this game will need to out-run their opponent. Marshawn Lynch posted 140 yards last week, including a long touchdown that buried the Saints at the end of the game.
In the two previous matchups between these two teams, the team that ran the ball the best won the game. Coincidence? Nope.
Both these teams are led by quarterbacks who can run, too, so viewers can expect to see a lot of the ground game in an effort to control the clock and play smash-mouth football.
1. Russell Wilson
On the surface, it seems kind of unfair to narrow in on one team’s quarterback and not the other, but the 49ers have shown that they can throw the ball when necessary, and the Seahawks haven’t.
Having Percy Harvin back in the lineup helped the Seahawks to open the field a little more, but he was knocked around the whole game and was hardly on the field after the first half.
In Wilson’s last five games, his highest passing yard total is just 206, falling below 110 yards twice.
When Seattle lost in Week 16 to the Arizona Cardinals at home, Wilson completed only 40.7 percent of his passes, averaging just four yards per completion. No NFL quarterback can win a game with those numbers.
The 49ers were fourth in the NFL in the regular season in rushing defense, so Lynch will likely not be as big of a factor as he was against the Saints, forcing more of the offensive burden to fall to Wilson.
But if San Francisco can get after Wilson, or focus on shutting down Golden Tate and Harvin (if he’s on the field), it could be a long day for Seattle.