If we can learn anything from the Panthers vs. 49ers matchup in Week 10, it’s that Sunday’s game isn’t going to be terribly exciting.
The 10-9 game, which the Panthers won, is a good precursor for what fans can expect when the teams meet up in the divisional round of the playoffs in Charlotte, NC, and these are the five things that will shape how the game is played.
5. Cam Newton’s arm
There’s no doubt that Carolina’s quarterback took a step forward this year toward becoming an elite NFL quarterback (don’t worry, he’s still a few steps away) but he has yet to show that he can really air the ball out.
Newton has been relying a lot on the run this season, leading the team in rushing yards in five games this season. But the 49ers have only allowed 159 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, and their defense ranks fourth in the league in rush yards allowed per game.
So, Newton will have to turn to the air to try to put up enough points to get the Panthers the win, despite only having three games this season of more than 250 yards.
4. San Francisco’s passing attack
The biggest knock against the 49ers heading into the playoffs has been their passing offense (or lack thereof).
In the regular season, they ranked just 30th in the league in passing yards per game with a mere 186.2, a number that could shrink in Sunday’s game against Carolina’s sixth-ranked passing defense.
The team was hoping having Michael Crabtree return to the lineup would provide a spark, but Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent at getting him the ball. In last week’s Wild Card game against the Green Bay Packers, Crabtree was targeted 13 times, pulling down eight balls for 125 yards.
However, prior to that, Crabtree had games of just 40, 45 and 29 yards. Even with Crabtree’s production last Sunday, Kaepernick still finished the game with only 227 yards.
In order to win on Sunday, the 49ers are going to have to find a way to get Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis involved early and often and get Kaepernick in a rhythm against a tough Panthers defense.
3. DeAngelo Williams
The Panthers have gotten by so far this season without much production from their running backs. Jonathan Stewart has just 180 rushing yards this year, and he could be out again for this one, leaving Williams to take the majority of the carries.
However, Williams has just one 100-yard game this season. And, as previously mentioned, Newton has been the top ground option for the team.
It doesn’t help that the 49ers allow just 95.9 rushing yards per game, so it’s almost impossible to expect a 100-yard performance out of Williams. But the Panthers at least need Williams to be effective at getting more than just two yards per carry, taking some of the pressure off of Newton to have to carry the majority of the load on offense.
Carolina is also fifth in the league in time of possession against their opponents, making their ability to run the ball that much more important. If the 49ers are forcing three-and-outs on the Panthers and forcing Newton to throw on every play, it will give San Fran a decisive advantage.
2. Vernon Davis
Not only does the 49ers’ passing attack have a lot to do with this game, but more importantly, Vernon Davis needs to have a big game.
The eighth-year tight end was a big key to San Francisco’s success in last year’s playoffs, picking up 254 yards in three games, and he could exploit a weakness in Carolina’s defense.
In the regular season, Carolina allowed just over 10 yards per reception to opposing tight ends, as well as allowing 10 touchdowns. But, in San Franciso’s loss to Carolina earlier this season, Davis only had two yards, and last Sunday, he was targeted seven times in the Green Bay game but only had two receptions.
In the three losses Davis was a part of for the 49ers (he missed the fourth loss), Davis had the previously mentioned two-yard game, along with games of just 20 and 33 yards.
He’ll have to do much better than that in this one, as the 49ers showed last year what their offense can do when Davis is playing well.
1. Defense, defense, defense
From looking back at the Week 10 game between these two teams, it’s easy to see that the best defense will win out.
Neither offense is going to be putting up 500 yards, and both defenses were in the top five in the NFL in terms of total yardage in the regular season.
Carolina has held teams to under 20 points in 10 games this season, while San Francisco did it in eight games.
This game is going to be low-scoring, and it’ll come down to which defense can step up and make a big stop late in the game.
Final Prediction
The Panthers have had a Cinderella season after starting out 1-3, but their run will come to an end on Sunday.
San Francisco’s running back Frank Gore just finished his third-consecutive 1,100-yard season, and having Crabtree in the lineup should give Kaepernick the necessary weapons to out-score Newton and the Panthers.
Newton has been nothing more than a runner at times this season, and seems to disappear from games as a passing threat at times until the final drive of games, but the 49ers’ defense will be able to make sure that last drive means nothing.
49ers win 14-6