Football fans should easily remember what happened the last time the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints faced off: The Saints got dismantled. On Monday night. On national television.
New Orleans’s loss that night sent them on a skid that ended up costing them the NFC South and a first-round bye in the playoffs. This time around, the Saints will obviously be gunning for a different outcome, looking to capitalize on their first-round victory over the Philadelphia Eagles—a win that most people didn’t expect them to get.
But the No. 1 seed in the NFC stands in the Saints’ way, so what are the keys to this divisional round matchup?
5. Marshawn Lynch
Even in Seattle’s big win over the Saints several weeks ago, Lynch wasn’t able to get much going against New Orleans’s defense. He carried the ball 16 times but only picked up 45 yards—for an average of 2.8 yards per carry. Lynch was also held out of the end zone.
Russell Wilson ended up finishing the game as Seattle’s leading rusher with 47 yards. If the Seahawks want to win on Saturday, they’ll need Lynch to be much better against a Saints defense that ranked 19th in the NFL in rushing defense in the regular season.
In Seattle’s three losses this season, Lynch has just one touchdown, as opposed to 11 touchdowns in the team’s 13 wins. And in two of the three losses, Lynch failed to break 72 yards on the ground, so the Seahawks will need to get him going early.
The Saints managed to hold LeSean McCoy in check in their first-round game, allowing one of the best backs in the league to just average 3.7 yards per carry, and with New Orleans’s second-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per game, the Seahawks can’t rely on Wilson to put up the majority of the points.
Lynch needs to have one of his better games this season on Saturday if the Seahawks want to advance to the conference championship.
4. New Orleans’s Running Game
One of the biggest reasons why the Saints were able to get out of Philly with a victory was their running game.
The often maligned Mark Ingram posted 97 yards and a touchdown, the little-known Khiry Robinson picked up 45 yards on just eight carries, and Darren Sproles even tacked on 29 yards on the ground. (Sproles also had 31 receiving yards.)
Pierre Thomas, the Saints’ leading rusher, also returned to practice this week after missing the game against the Eagles.
New Orleans will need to get their running game going if it wants to pick up the upset win here, because if you can do anything against Seattle’s defense, it’s running the ball.
Seattle was first in the NFL in the regular season in pass defense, and is seventh in rush defense (so still not very promising for the Saints). But in their most recent loss (Week 16 to the Arizona Cardinals) the Seahawks allowed 139 rushing yards to the Cardinals, and in their Week 14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Frank Gore ran for 110 yards.
Saints coach Sean Payton should be ready to use a lot of Thomas, Sproles and Ingram in this one.
3. Saints' Wide Receivers
Sorry, Saints fans, Jimmy Graham doesn’t count as a wide receiver. Graham is the Saints leading receiver this season, but Drew Brees will need to focus on distributing the ball to his receivers, and not Graham, in this one.
That’s not to say that Brees should avoid Graham entirely, but the Seahawks will focus in on stopping Graham in their gameplan heading into this game (if they’re smart).
During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed just six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, the fourth lowest total in the league.
In the Monday Night Football blowout, Graham had just 42 receiving yards, the highest on the team, with Sproles coming in as the second leading receiver with 32 yards.
The wide receiver with the most yards? Marques Colston with a mere 27.
In Saints wins this season, Colston is averaging 13.2 yards per reception, with that number falling to 10.7 yards per reception in losses.
The same goes for Kenny Stills, New Orleans’s third-leading receiver. In wins, Stills is averaging 24.7 yards per reception, and just 13.2 yards in losses.
Brees will need to get away from always throwing to Graham, and will need to rely on Colston, Stills and Lance Moore more if he wants to get by Seattle’s stellar pass defense.
2. Percy Harvin
Harvin’s presence might get buried in the other storylines of this game, but the Saints can’t afford to look past his return in this one.
Even if Harvin can only be on the field for 12 plays, for those 12 plays, the Saints need to focus completely on him.
The often-injured wide receiver is a threat to break a 90-yard play at any time, and even if he is only available for special teams plays or for a few bombs from Wilson, having Harvin in the game for the Seahawks is a huge advantage against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 10th most passes of 40 yards or more.
Be sure to plan your bathroom breaks during this one around Harvin’s snaps.
1. The 12th Man
This is the most obvious—and important—factor in this game.
Seattle’s 12th man gives them the biggest home-field advantage in the league, with the team only losing one home game in the last two seasons. (Even in 2011 when the Seahawks went 7-9, they still were 4-4 at home.)
And it’s no secret that New Orleans isn’t a good road team losing five of their eight games outside of the Superdome this season.
Although the Saints put some of that to rest with the road win over the Eagles last week, it’s still hard to argue against Seattle’s home crowd.
In home games this season, Wilson’s rating is five points higher than when the Seahawks played on the road, and Lynch scored two more touchdowns at CenturyLink Field than when Seattle had to travel.
The difference is just as staggering for Brees when he’s away from the Superdome, throwing nine interceptions in road games during the regular season as opposed to just three in New Orleans’s home games. Bree’s completion percentage is also almost 10 percent lower on the road than at home.
Final Prediction
Forget about the 11 guys on the field, the 12th man will just be too much for the Saints to overcome. There’s no way the Saints have the same success running the ball as they had against the Eagles, and the Seahawks have the obvious advantage at home in 43-degree weather.
Seahawks win 24-14