For what seems like the last five or so seasons, everyone is always saying, “Quarterback is crazy deep this season” right before their fantasy draft. In fantasy, quarterback usually is a pretty deep position, yet it always seems like after the big three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees), there are quarterbacks that are taken far too high.
In my fantasy drafts this season, I either want to be one of the first people to take a quarterback and land one of the top three guys, or I want to be one of the last owners. If you find yourself as one of the last owners to draft a quarterback, there’s no need to worry.
These five players are going later in standard drafts, and for relatively low money in auction leagues. In order from least valuable to most valuable, drafting one of these players will give you some great value in a fantasy draft, with the potential to land as one of the top 10 or so quarterbacks by the time the season is over.
5. Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
FantasyPros’ average draft dosition: 132 overall (17th quarterback)
FantasyPros’ QB ranking: 22
2013 FantasyPros’ average auction value: N/A
Draft Manziel as a backup fantasy quarterback, and hope he turns into a Russell Wilson-type starter for your team. If you find yourself with someone like Matt Ryan as your starter, Manziel is a great pick for a backup late in the draft.
If somehow Josh Gordon manages to escape suspension and can play even half the season, Manziel is a threat to be a legitimate fantasy quarterback late in the season. I’m assuming that the Browns will start him Week 1 no matter what they’re saying now, and if he plays in all 16 games, it wouldn’t be too surprising if Manziel ends up in the top 12 quarterbacks.
Dual-threat quarterbacks are great for fantasy, and we know Manziel can throw and run. Even if Gordon misses the whole season, Manziel does still have Miles Austin and Jordan Cameron to throw to, with Ben Tate and fellow rookie Terrance West in the backfield to support him. Out of all the rookie quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater may be the best pro quarterback, but Manziel has higher fantasy upside and is going way late in drafts.
4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
ADP: 106 (14th quarterback)
Ranking: 15
2013 auction value: $1
Last season, Rivers was drafted as a backup quarterback in many leagues, but he clawed his way back to the top six fantasy quarterbacks through one of his best seasons ever. Rivers has Danny Woodhead in the backfield to check down to, and let’s not forget that he has Antonio Gates, one of the best tight ends in football if he’s healthy.
Last season Rivers had just one game of single-digit fantasy points (Week 16). Prior to that, he hadn’t dipped below 11 fantasy points, including seven games of 18 or more points, and one more in Week 17 for teams still competing at that time in fantasy playoffs.
Keenan Allen is the best receiver to come out of last year’s draft, and if Rivers can get one more person to come through for him like Allen did last season, seeing Rivers in the top six again wouldn’t be a surprise.
He’s being drafted below Nick Foles who is the best candidate for a big drop-off in fantasy production and the now-concerning Robert Griffin III. Take Rivers in the 10th round and feel great about it.
3. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 133 (18th quarterback)
Ranking: 17
2013 auction value: $5
Dalton will probably lose you some fantasy weeks, he’ll probably win you some weeks. He threw 20 interceptions last season, but he also threw the third most touchdowns passes out of anyone.
Dalton’s stock is way down after his up-and-down season last year (he’s even going lower than Manziel). So there’s huge upside in taking him as a second quarterback in standard leagues. He did have the four games of single-digit fantasy points, but following Cincinnati’s bye week after Week 12, here’s his fantasy points per week: 9, 30, 19, 31 and 19.
Before that, between Weeks 6 and 8, he had 24, 26 and 31 fantasy points. In real football terms, this is a make-or-break year for Dalton. He finally needs to put a full season together and make the Bengals real contenders in the playoffs. But fantasy owners can take him in the 12th or 13th round and hope he can cut out the three-interception games. Even if that doesn’t happen, Dalton and A.J. Green could go off in any given week for three touchdowns and he can win you a single fantasy game.
2. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
ADP: 106 (15th quarterback)
Ranking: 14
2013 auction value: $3
Injuries with Cutler are a real concern. He hasn’t played in all 16 games since the 2009 season. But if you can get him for just $3 or $4 in auction leagues or in drafts behind Tony Romo and Foles, go for it, even as your starter.
Cutler can be a legitimate fantasy starter when he’s healthy, and good backup options are available (i.e. Dalton and Manziel) who could start if Cutler goes down again. Ignoring the game he was injured in last season when he finished with -1 point, Cutler averaged 16 fantasy points per game. Had he played in all 16 games, that would have put him up tied with Russell Wilson for the eighth best fantasy quarterback.
Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall really came alive under Cutler and Josh McCown, and probably are the best receiving tandem in the league now. Cutler plays in the defensively challenged NFC North (Minnesota and Detroit have two of the worst secondaries in the league) and the Bears aren’t going to be stopping anyone, so expect Cutler to air the ball out a lot. And, Matt Forte is a great pass-catching back.
1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 100 (13th quarterback)
Ranking: 13
2013 auction value: $14
Out of all these quarterbacks, Wilson will cost you the most. In auction leagues he’ll go for the most, and he’s going the highest in standard drafts. But just look at who’s going above him. Romo’s fantasy value falls apart if Dez Bryant gets hurt. Matt Ryan’s offensive line has a long way to go. Foles will fall off from last season. Griffin is a big risk for injury.
If Wilson goes in the late eighth/early ninth round, don’t feel like that’s too much to give up for him. Even in his rookie year, Wilson was the 10th best fantasy quarterback, and last season he was eighth. He’s not going to be posting 30-point fantasy games any time soon, but he is a consistent fantasy quarterback who can pick up points through the air and on the ground.
He’ll also presumably get Percy Harvin back for however many games, but for every game that Harvin plays it gives Wilson the chance to pick up huge plays. He doesn’t have the best receivers around him should Harvin go down, but the dual-threat quarterback is just too valuable in fantasy. Be one of the last two or three teams in your league to draft a starting quarterback, and take Wilson as the 12th or so quarterback and feel confident that he can be in the top eight by the end of the season.