New England Patriots (12-4) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
3:00 P.M. Sunday January 19, 2014
CBS
Line: Denver (-6)
New England Divisional Round Review
The Patriots road to the playoff win once again on the back of quarterback to...wait no thats the usual storyline. This time Tom Brady was average and LeGarrette Blount was the hero. Blount went absolutely silly, gaining 166 yards on the ground and adding four touchdowns. Stevan Ridley added another 52 yards and two more touchdowns. They both wreaked havoc on the Indianapolis Colts run defense which surprised a lot of people.
We are all so used to seeing Brady go "Super Saiyan" and saving the day for the Patriots. But this week was just another example of why every team’s fan base wishes Brady and Bill Belichick were their coach and quarterback. They are known for their system of not catering to stars, but doing what it takes to win. Any other team would have put the ball in their quarterbacks hands and threw the ball 40 times. Not New England, they saw a weakness and put it in the hands of a guy nobody thought would be relevant in the beginning of the season.
Denver Broncos Divisional Round Review
Seems like everyone cares more about Peyton Manning screaming Omaha every snap than anything else that happened in this game. But the most important outcome of this game was the loss of cornerback Chris Harris with an ACL tear. Harris has been a key to the Broncos defense after he stepped in for the injured Champ Bailey. Harris will especially be missed this week against future H.O.F. Tom Brady.
Besides the injury to Harris Manning and the Broncos had a really good day controlling the game through three quarters, and were able to withstand a 17 point fourth quarter from the Chargers. The key to this Broncos offense has been the balance running back Knowshon Moreno brings. He went over 1000 yards rushing in regular season and rushed for 82 and a touchdown in the divisional round. If the Broncos want to move on further they need to keep feeding this guy the rock to keep the offense on the field longer.
Patriots Broncos
Passing Offense 255.4 (10th) 340.2 (1st)
Rushing Offense 129.1 (9th) 117.1 (15th)
Scoring Offense 444 (3rd) 606 (1st)
Passing Defense 239.0 (18th) 254.4 (27th)
Rushing Defense 134.1 (30th) 101.6 (7th)
Scoring Defense 338 (10th) 399 (22nd)
Turnover Margin 9 (3rd AFC) 0 (6th AFC)
Point Differential 6.7 (8th) 13 (1st)
Key Matchups
Dont’a Hightower vs Knowshon Moreno: These two will meet in the whole a couple times and whoever consistently wins will give their team a huge advantage. I wanted to see Moreno vs Brandon Spikes since they have history, but with Spikes on the IR that won’t happen.
Demaryius Thomas vs Aqib Talib: Talib is the Patriots number one corner so you should expect for him to shadow Thomas for most of the game. Talib will have to really play well and eliminate at least one of Mannings weapons.
Biggest Mismatch
Tom Brady vs the Broncos Secondary: With Harris out and Bailey still not a 100% its safe to say I don’t have much faith in the Broncos defense. I expect the Patriots to come out and throw the ball 30 to 40 times this game, and if the Broncos can’t stop him then watch out it might spell trouble.
Prediction
Patriots: 38
Broncos: 35
This game will be close and it can go either way, but that injury to Harris really has me worried about how capable the Broncos are at stopping Brady. I like to pick the best defense in the playoffs but in this case I guess it changes to which ever defense hasn’t lost all their stars to injury.