The AFC Championship game is on the horizon and I’ll be the first to admit, I did not see the Baltimore Ravens making it this far. It doesn’t come as much of a surprise to see the New England Patriots playing for yet another Super Bowl berth; however, many just penciled in Peyton Manning and the Broncos as being the Patriots dance partner. I suppose that is why we play the games right?
Don’t get me wrong the Ravens have played well when needed and they deserve to be in the Conference Championship as they beat two good teams to get here. I’m not trying to take anything away from the Baltimore club as they have overcome their own personal tragedies and injuries to make it this far.
The Ravens have been here before and they find themselves in an eerily familiar position to that of last year. Last season they were only one win away from a Super Bowl appearance; unfortunately for them that one win had to come against the Patriots. The Ravens had their chances last year as two scoring plays would have clinched the game. A dropped touchdown pass followed by a missed field goal each would have propelled the Ravens into the big game. Not that history dictates how the future unfolds; however, one has to think that the remaining Ravens players have certainly not forgotten how close they came last year.
For history to not repeat itself here the Ravens will need to establish the run game with Ray Rice and try to keep the clock moving while still advancing the football in productive scoring drives. Another 30 + point output would be just what the doctor ordered for the Ravens as any missed scoring opportunities can loom large, particularly when you are going up against the New England Patriots.
For the Patriots they suffered their own significant loss, only theirs occurred last week against Houston. Stud tight end Rob Gronkowski broke his forearm again and is out for the Patriots. Imagine for a second if the Atlanta Falcons lost Tony Gonzalez, most teams would be absolutely crippled with such a loss at this point in the season as there aren’t many teams able to overcome the void of a 6’6” matchup-nightmare of an offensive weapon.
The New England Patriots aren’t just any team. They are the most potent offense in the league and are able to spread the ball around with impunity as they march downfield. For evidence that New England can sustain such an injury look no further as we bear witness to a switch from a tight-end reliant passing attack which has morphed into the balanced offensive juggernaut we see now. This year saw Tom Brady complete over 50 fewer passes to his tight ends compared to last season while focusing more so on his running backs coming out of the backfield as viable receiving options.
In addition to the re-focused passing attack there was a more concerted effort in New England to achieve an overall balanced offensive attack. This was accomplished by establishing the running game which finished the year at a very respectable if not surprising seventh ranked rushing attack in the league. This rediscovered run game forced opposing defenses to take a far more honest approach on the defensive line and give more respect to play action fakes which ultimately buy more time for Brady in the pocket to pick out a receiver.
The loss of Gronkowski is large; however, the Patriots can overcome this by involving Danny Woodhead and Aaron Hernandez more while giving Stevan Ridley a steady dose of run attempts. So long as Brady can protect the football and avoid any sack/fumble plays that result in turnovers the Patriots will be in great shape to make another Super Bowl appearance.
There are those who are calling the Ravens a team of destiny for making it as far as they have. Let me tell you that the Ravens were not predisposed to winning, they are a decent team that is playing well at the right time and above all else they are lucky. There is no destiny in football, don’t kid yourself and above all else don’t bet on it.
To start the season off I made some projections as to how teams would fare. At the time my predicted Super Bowl matchup was to have New England square off against San Francisco. I’m not wavering from my previous stand and I’m taking New England all the way.
PICK: New England Patriots