The AFC wildcard games were a little less suspenseful than one might have expected; not me mind you, I had the winners picked outright. The games saw Houston dispatch Cincinnati while Baltimore ended Indianapolis’ story book run. The games were descent and entertaining enough, they just weren’t all that exciting or suspenseful.
The Divisional round should bring some more excitement to the Championship run. Baltimore must now travel into Denver and play a tough, well-oiled and rested Broncos team while Houston brings their sputtering offence into Gillette Stadium to play the explosive New England Patriots.
Alright let’s look ahead and pick some winners as we look to keep the momentum going from a perfect wildcard weekend.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
The Ravens are going to have to drastically improve upon their play in a short period of time to have a legitimate chance here against the Broncos. For starters the offense needs to figure out how to stay on the field and that means converting on those third down situations. Going four for ten is good enough to beat Indianapolis but it isn’t going to be efficient enough against the Broncos. Another huge problem is the sudden case of fumble-itis that seems to have inflicted Ray Rice. Usually fairly sure-handed, Rice managed to lose two fumbles against the Colts. If Rice and Co. put two balls on the ground like that again the Ravens will be playing catch up as Peyton Manning punishes teams for mistakes like that.
It is obvious that the Ravens defense got a huge boast with the return of Ray Lewis; he led the team in tackles; he was swarming the play on every down and he should have hauled in a gimme interception early in the game. Despite Lewis’ heroics the defensive unit still surrendered over 400 yards of total offense and let Reggie Wayne burn them for over 100 yards. If they surrender that kind of yardage to Manning you can bet the Broncos will find the end zone repeatedly.
For all the hype that the Raven’s defense gets it is the Broncos defense that finished top five in the league. The Broncos led the league in sacks, fewest yards allowed, were third overall in fewest points allowed and were tied for second with the most touchdowns scored by the defense. Led by Von Miller and complimented greatly by veteran Champ Bailey and speedster cornerback Chris Harris. This is a very dangerous unit; they are extremely skilled, young enough to red-line their bodies the whole game and experienced enough to keep up with a veteran Baltimore receiving corps.
The biggest hurdle for the Broncos might just be shaking off the rust that came with having a week off. Mind you with Manning an extra week off is equivalent to giving Nick Saban three weeks to prepare for a game; point is it makes for a very prepared opponent. The Broncos are undefeated in their last eleven games for a reason. They don’t make mistakes, don’t turn the ball over and are superior when it comes to clock management and putting touchdowns on the board. Manning and the offense have the utmost confidence in each other when it comes to route running, play execution, blocking roles and line of scrimmage audibles; it is these tangibles that make a good football team a great one.
Manning’s season seems destined for greatness and this game will serve as a tune-up for the Conference Final. This is exactly the reason why the Bronco’s broke the bank to get Manning and took the gamble on seeing the Manning of old. Everyone knows that Manning isn’t going to be worth his money come the end of his contract; it is the now that the Broncos are counting on and it is the now that Manning will deliver.
PICK: Denver Broncos
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
This game is going to boil down to capitalizing on scoring opportunities. The Houston Texans have Andre Johnson who was the AFC’s leader in receiving yards, they have Arian Foster who accumulated over 1400 rushing yards which was good enough for second in the Conference and 15 touchdowns which lead the Conference plus they have Matt Schaub who placed fifth in passing yards.
With all these weapons at their disposal why can’t the Texans score more points? They managed only 26 points per game. By comparison the Patriots offense put up staggering numbers. They averaged a ridiculous 34.8 points per game while only surrendering 20.7 points per game; coincidentally that is the same points per game allowed average for the Texans.
If the Texans drag their field goal kicker onto the field four times this week against New England and rely on made field goals to win this game they are in for a very rude awakening. The Texans must score touchdowns and capitalize on their possessions; they cannot simply be content to put three points up and then turn the ball over to Tom Brady.
The Texans do have a very formidable defense as J.J Watt was the sack leader with 20. Keep in mind that Brady has only been sacked 27 times on the season despite hanging in the pocket to complete passes much longer than most quarterbacks. The Patriots also have a very good defense as they play a contain front that almost goes into a prevent defense near the red zone. It almost seems that the Patriots are content with giving up field goals to opposition so long as the offensive drive doesn’t take too long and they can get Brady back on the field to go get another touchdown. I think the interception numbers for the Patriots secondary are a bit skewed as a result of teams playing from behind and needing to throw the ball into that prevent defense. Regardless of how they came, the Patriots still recorded 20 interceptions on the year, good enough for fifth overall in the league.
Tom Brady is pushing towards another Championship and it looks like that will take him on a crash course yet again with Peyton Manning. If Brady can keep the offense clicking, connect on those short yardage plays to move the chains and keep the Ravens defense on the field then the Patriots will make short work of the Ravens come Sunday.
PICK: New England Patriots