This is a football game destined to be a classic. It’s Peyton Manning’s old team with whom he won a Super Bowl with, the Indianapolis Colts, against Manning’s current team, the Denver Broncos. Andrew Luck hopes to lead the Colts past the Broncos for a shot at the AFC Championship game, but Manning is looking to make it two years in a row going to the Super Bowl.
There’s a good chance this game ends up being a shootout. If this is the case, I think the Colts will have the advantage. The reason they’ll have the advantage is because Luck is use to not having a running game to help him out. He’s used to throwing the ball almost every single game. Manning, on the other hand, seems to be losing more and more strength in his arm as the season has progressed. You could make an argument that Manning is playing the worst right now out of all the quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs.
However, if this becomes a grind it out type of game, the advantage shifts to the Broncos. The Broncos have had much more of a running game this season than the Colts have. In his past six games, Broncos running back C.J. Anderson has had a combined PFF (subscription) run grade of 13.9. Dan Herron, the current feature back for the Colts, has had a combined PFF run grade in his last seven games of -1.4. The effectiveness of these running backs aren’t anywhere close to each other. Another factor in this aspect is that the Colts’ run defense had a PFF grade of -4.9 (18th in the league) while the Broncos’ run defense had a PFF grade of 64.0 (4th in the league).
In a rematch of Week 1 (Broncos won that meeting 31-24) I expect to see the same result. The Broncos are the better team overall and they also have home field advantage. If you were to look at every aspect of each team, the Broncos have the advantage everywhere except quarterback. It’s certainly going to be a great game to watch and should not disappoint in the slightest bit.