The AFC East is widely considered to already be won by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Well, they’re probably right. After the Patriots however, it’s wide open and kind of interesting. All three teams--Jets, Bills and Dolphins--all have young quarterbacks who they're relying on heavily. If those guys can play well, each of those three has a shot at a Wild Card spot. Before we can talk playoffs, we have to talk regular season. The regular season starts right here, with week one.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, Sun Life Stadium, 9/7 at 1pm
Overview
Historically, the Dolphins have the upper hand in this matchup, with 50 career victories against the Pats. Most of those however, came when none of us were alive, or old enough to recognize a football. More recently, the Patriots have slammed the Dolphins harder than Vince Wilfork slams a Big Mac. Since 2009, the Patriots have won eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams. There’s no reason to think that’ll stop anytime soon, right?
Key Matchups
Chandler Jones versus Branden Albert
It has been pretty well documented that the Miami offensive line couldn’t stop a beach ball if it was rushing the quarterback last season. However, that line is completely revamped with their prize free agent, Branden Albert. Albert signed in Miami for five years and a whopping $47 dollars, making him the 8th highest played tackle in the league.
His first test, is a very talented young man out of Syracuse, Chandler Jones. The former first-round pick finished in the top ten of the entire league in sacks last season, totaling 11.5. The one thing that helped Jones excel last season, is his size. He stands at 6’ 5” and over 240 pounds. The one thing that makes Branden Albert so serviceable, is his size as well. Albert is 6’ 7” and 315 pounds.
Something has to give here. As Chandler Jones said on NESN.com, “It’ll be a very good test, I’m excited to go against him.”
Marcus Cannon/Sebatian Vollmer versus Cameron Wake
Wake has been a monster since entering the league in 2009 from Penn State. In those five years, he has 51.5 sacks. He was just a part of a great Miami line who finished 12th in the league with 42 sacks in 2013, more than the Broncos, Jets and 49ers.
The one thing that the Patriots did much better(or worse) in 2013 compared to 2012, was let people hit Tom Brady. The three-time Super Bowl winning quarterback was sacked 40 times last season, 12 more than in 2012. The Pats offensive line also let in another 81 quarterback hits on top of the 40 sacks.
It is a new year, which means all those stats are reset to zero, but one thing remains. And that is Cameron Wake is one of the best pass rushers in the game. Can a New England line who was worse in 2013 compared to 2013, get better with the loss of Logan Mankins? It’ll be tough, but Miami is their first test.
Charles Clay versus Patriot Linebackers
Charles Clay had a breakout season in 2013, finishing with 759 yards and six touchdowns on 69 catches. Three Dolphins had 69 catches or more, Clay, Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace. With New Englands new secondary featuring Darrelle Revis, it could be tough for Wallace and Hartline to get free.
If that’s the case, Clay becomes Tannehill’s best friend. He’ll be matched up against the trio of young linebackers for Bill Belichick, in Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and Jerod Mayo. Clay’s athleticism and size could be a tough task for the Pats.
Final Prediction- Patriots 24 Dolphins 20
Ryan Tannehill is a much better quarterback at home, with a 9-7 career record. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s system shocks the Patriots defense initially and the Dolphins take a halftime lead. But, as Tom Brady has done so many times before, brings the Pats back. Down 20-17, Brady tosses a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski to give the Pats the W.
Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets, Met Life Stadium, 9/7 at 1pm
Overview
Geno Smith is two for two in his career. That is, two for two in preseason quarterback “battles”. Derek Carr is following Geno’s path as well, as he beat out Matt Schaub who seemed to be etched in as the team’s starter. All eyes will be on Carr in Week 1, as he is the only rookie quarterback who will be starting. The Raiders go from the west coast to the east coast, for a Sunday afternoon game. Jets have the potential to be either a Wild Card team, or finish in the cellar of the AFC East. All starts with Week 1.
Key Matchups
Derek Carr versus Jets Defense
Here it is. The matchup of the game, in my opinion. A rookie quarterback versus a Rex Ryan defense. A defense which has no secondary. Antonio Cromartie is now in Arizona, and anyone who planned to play corner for the Jets this year is injured or released.
So, here it is. Derek Carr with pretty much no name receivers, versus no name cornerbacks. This could be a very fun game to watch. Carr impressed everyone in the last game of the preseason, can he do the same thing Week 1?
Maurice Jones-Drew/Darren McFadden versus Jets 3-4
The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the league, along with Caronlina and division foe Buffalo. Sheldon Richardson is one of the best nost tackles in the entire NFL. Muhammad Wilkerson is just as good.
Jones-Drew signed a 3-year/$7.5 dollar deal this offseason to be paired with Run DMC. If the Raiders want to have a winning season, yeah I know it won’t happen either, their two aging running backs will be the most important piece in their offense. Jones-Drew hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season since 2011, and McFadden since 2010. The Raiders really need these two to step it up.
Carlos Rodgers versus Eric Decker
If the Jets want to be a playoff contended, it does come down to Geno. But it also comes down to Eric Decker. Coming over from Denver, he signed a 5-year/$36 million deal. Decker has went over 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns the past two seasons. Now, he was catching balls from Peyton Manning, but he still has a lot of talent. The leading receiver for the Jets last season, Jeremy Kerley, had only 523 yards. Decker should be well above that.
Final Prediction- Raiders 17 Jets 27
Carr looks good in his debut. While hitting a 40-yard touchdown to bring the Raiders within three points at 20-17, Chris Ivory punches in a goal line carry to seal the deal and a Jets win. The Jets do just enough to escape an almost improbable Week 1 upset. But, the Raiders running game lets them down against the incredible Jets defensive line.
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears, Soldier Field, 9/7 at 1pm
Overview
E.J. Manuel and Co go into Chicago for the first game of the season against Jay Cutler’s Bears. This could be a great game to watch for anyone who is a fan of offense, which is everyone. Cutler’s second season in Marc Trestman’s offense with Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall on the outside.
On the flip side, Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams and Robert Woods headline the receiving core for the Bills. Throw in dynamite backs like Matt Forte and C.J. Spiller, and there could be fireworks at Soldier Field.
Key Matchups
Stephon Gilmore/Leodis McKelvin versus Alshon Jeffrey/Brandon Marshall
Physical corners versus physical wide receivers. Jeffrey and Marshall had the highest total of combined of total receiving yards of any wide out combination. For the Bills, Gilmore had a breakout season in his second year. As for Leodis McKelvin, every Bills fan(including myself), had given up on him. His ball skills were awful, and his only contribution to the team was on special teams. That kept him around, and good for the Bills, he played incredible last year.
Mike Pettine’s system was probably the leading cause for that, and now he’s in Cleveland. So, enter Jim Schwartz at coordinator, former Detroit Lions coach. Last season, Jeffrey and Marshall torched Schwartz’s defense. Jeffrey went 14 catches for for 221 yards and a score, while Marshall went 14 catches for 218 yards and two scores. As for Schwartz, his personnel is a ton better in Buffalo compared to Detroit. This will be the premiere matchup in this game.
Sammy Watkins versus Tim Jennings/Charles Tillman
Sammy might be the most watched rookie this season, that doesn’t play the quarterback position. He has made highlight reel after highlight reel catch in preseason practices. Watkins has been a widespread favorite to win the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year award, and for good reason. If the Bills want to pull off an upset in Week 1, Watkins has to play a big part. When Manuel drops back, he’s going to be looking for Watkins, and he needs to make plays.
Bills Defensive Line versus Bears Offensive Line
The Buffalo Bills finished second in the league in sacks last year, with 57. They were also second in sacks from only their front four. Simply put, they can get to the quarterback quite easily. One thing that the Bears did good last season, was not let people get to the quarterback. They only gave up 30 sacks, good for 5th best in the league. What they did do however, is give up a lot of quarterback hits, at 85, easily the most of any team in that top-five of sacks allowed. Mario Williams and crew need to hit Cutler, hard.
Final Prediction Bills 24 Bears 28
The Bills stay in the game for three and a half quarters, going punch for punch. Marshall touchdown. Spiller touchdown. Forte Touchdown. Chandler touchdown. Back and forth, back and forth. But, down 24-21 in the fourth quarter, Cutler leads the Bears down the field, aided by a big time catch from Alshon Jeffrey, and Matt Forte jumps over the pile at the goal line for the 28-24 victory.