Going into the 2014 season, the perennial AL Most Valuable Player candidates were evident. It was a battle between Miguel Cabrera and the surging Mike Trout.
Many believe that when Cabrera showed signs of a down year, this award was simply Trout’s to lose. He has backed up the talk by posting a 6.5 WAR for the division-leading Los Angeles Angels. His strong season has helped the Angels finally reach their potential, leading even more around baseball to center the MVP discussion around him.
However, Trout isn’t running away with this award just yet. No, there’s a strong foe inside of division that could steal the award away from him. Who could it be?
It’s not Josh Donaldson from the Oakland Athletics, who leads the league in WAR. It’s Felix Hernandez, the Seattle Mariners unquestioned ace for the past 10 seasons.
Hernandez is in the midst of what could the best season in his career, with a 2.07 ERA and a 13-4 record for the Mariners, who just happen to be in the playoff race for the first time in many years. He sits behind Chris Sale for best ERA in the AL and ranks third in all of baseball.
Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since his rookie season, but the Mariners’ success this season has helped his numbers and profile. He gets an average of 4.67 runs per start, which is something he isn’t accustomed to, but certainly contributes to his 13 wins.
One of the most striking parts of Hernandez’s season is the streak of 16 games going at least seven innings without allowing more than two runs. He broke Tom Seaver’s record set in 1971. He isn’t just good this season; he’s historic.
To put this season in perspective, Hernandez’s ERA and WHIP (0.88) are lower than Justin Verlander’s during the 2011 season in which he won the AL MVP. It’s easy to see why Hernandez is in this race, but Trout will not let it go that easily.
Trout is on pace for the most home runs and RBIs in his career, with 30 long balls and 94 runs knocked in at this point in the season. He’s lead his team in these categories all season, and his stats always get a boost given that his team is in first place.
His 6.5 WAR ranks behind Donaldson for second best in the league. However, it’s almost 3.0 points behind last season and even more from 2012.
He was the MVP of the All-Star; an award that everyone wanted Derek Jeter to win, but his double and triple and two RBIs made it hard to ignore. He has had a great season in comparison to anyone not named Miguel Cabrera.
However, Trout’s average is down from last season and strikeouts are up since then. It seems as though his previous two seasons may make what he’s doing in 2014 seem worse than it is.
Having said that, Trout and the Angels are on pace to win the AL West, and if it’s anything voters pay attention to, it’s success. In the end, I believe Hernandez deserves to win this award, as he’s been the best player in the AL all season.
However, his team might not make the postseason. It would be hard to give him the award if that happens.