The Atlanta Falcons might be the least respected No. 1 seed in the history of the playoffs. They went 13-3 during the regular season, the best record in the NFL, but continue to get the Rodney Dangerfield treatment from the national media.
Atlanta now has a chance to prove everyone wrong against the new national darlings that are Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers.
Let's take a look at five keys for Atlanta heading into Sunday's NFC Championship Game
1. Play off the Fans
San Francisco must start strong if it hopes to keep the fans out of the game and give Kaepernick more of a chance on offense. On the other side, Atlanta has to get off to a quick start in order to keep the Georgia Dome loud. If it is able to do that, an inexperienced Kaepernick could be a bit overwhelmed in his first road postseason start. If not, expect the young quarterback to pick up where he left off last week against the Green Bay Packers.
As we all know, home-field advantage does mean something as it relates to the playoffs. A crowd that is into the game from the outset plays favorably into what the home team is attempting to do. This is magnified with a young quarterback and relatively young offensive line. We has seen San Francisco struggle in domes this season, so it is a necessity for the Falcons to start strong and keep the place alive.
2. Stop the Run
Atlanta ranked dead last against rushing quarterbacks during the regular season. Kaepernick had the highest yards per attempt average of any signal caller in the NFL. Yes that includes Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III. For their part, Newton and Wilson combined for 262 yards and three touchdowns on 25 rush attempts against Atlanta this year.
Kaepernick doesn't need to break a single-game NFL rushing record again this week in order for San Francisco to win. That being said, if the Falcons cannot hold him under 80 or 90 yards; the home team will not come away with a win.
Less us not forget about Frank Gore, who is on a playoff tear. Since making his first postseason appearance last January, Gore has tallied over 400 total yards and averaged nearly 5.4 yards a pop. In addition, Atlanta ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 29th in yards per carry.
3. Balance on Offense
If Atlanta is forced to become one dimensional on offense, San Francisco's defense is going to eat it alive. We have seen this story repeated over and over again with offenses going up against the 49ers, who can absolutely dominate one dimensional attacks and make quarterbacks look silly in the process. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the last year come to mind. In order for the Falcons to have success they're going to need to run the ball a minimum of 20 times with Michael Turner. If we are looking at a 50/15 pass ratio towards the end of the game, San Francisco wil be making plans for New Orleans.
4. Consistent Pass Rush
This is where it gets a bit tricky. If Atlanta is forced to utilize the blitz in order to get to Kaepernick, the quarterback will be able to find a lot of open turf to run through. If Atlanta goes with a base 4-3 nickel defense to stop his arm, Kaepernick will be able to find lanes to run through on the outside. Such is the headache of having to go up against a player like this. In order to contain the quarterback, Atlanta will have to get pressure from its four down linemen and spy Kaepernick either on the outside or between the hashes. Containing the young quarterback will give the Falcons the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl.
5. Matt Ryan
To take a term from mid-90s politics, "it's Ryan, stupid." If Ryan has a down game on Sunday, the Falcons really don't stand a chance to win this game. They need their Pro Bowl quarterback to step up on the biggest stage the NFC has to offer. Since the start of 2010, Atlanta is 6-9 in games where Ryan possesses a quarterback rating of under 80. While success of the quarterback has a direct correlation with success of the team as a whole, this is magnified further with Atlanta, who relies as much on its quarterback as any team remaining in the postseason.