For the first time in the history of the National Football League five rookie quarterbacks are going to be starting on opening day in less than two weeks. The simple fact that about one-third of the starting quarterbacks in the league have less than one full year of starting experience under their belts is simply astonishing.
To say that the NFL has turned the corner and is now a quarterback league would be a major understatement. This process began a few years back and has taken on a much bigger feel over the course of the last two seasons.
What does this mean for fantasy football? Well, it is pretty simple. You are going to have to rely on unproven signal-callers as primary backups for your fantasy football team. While this is a scary proposition, especially in standard leagues, there is a certain amount of intrigue that comes with it.
This article is going to rank all five rookie starters in terms of what I believe their fantasy production is going to be in 2012.
5. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
Josh Gordon has surprised a great deal of people after being selected in the second round of the 2012 NFL Supplemental Draft. Many understood that he had elite potential, but a wide array of different issues caused the Baylor product drop in the minds of scouts and armchair experts.
If Gordon is able to provide Weeden with some consistency on the outside opposite Greg Little, we could easily see Weeden exceeding what are low expectations.
That being said, there is absolutely no way you could justify selecting Weeden to be a QB2 in standard leagues. While he does provide some value in terms of dynasty and keeper leagues, the Oklahoma State product is so far behind the proverbial eight-ball as a rookie that it is impossible to believe he is going to make any sort of fantasy impact.
Best case scenario for Weeden is that he throws for 3,000 yard and compiles as many touchdowns as interceptions, both probably in the teens at this point.
4. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
This 2012 top 10 pick is nearly in the same position as Weeden. I just don’t see Tannehill being able to make that jump towards fantasy impact as a rookie for the Dolphins this season. He is lacking weapons on the outside. Relying on the likes of Davone Bess and Legedu Naanee to be consistent performers on the outside. It doesn’t take a fantasy football expert to realize those two receivers are over their heads as starters in the NFL.
You also have to take into account the fact that Miami has three stellar running backs in the form of Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. They are going to be relying on the run game a great deal, at least until Tannehill gains more seasoning as a rookie.
The Texas A&M product struggles with reads, accuracy and timing. While these might not have been major issues in college, you can bet they will be exposed in the NFL. Probably looking at more interceptions than touchdowns with a quarterback rating in the 70s.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
This is where we make the jump to viable fantasy options in terms of rookie quarterbacks. What Wilson has done throughout the preseason shouldn’t surprise those of us who had the pleasure of watching him play at Wisconsin, and before that, North Carolina State.
The third-round pick has a tremendous combination of athletic ability and field awareness. Despite standing at less than six feet tall, Wilson doesn’t struggle seeing over the top of defenses in the pocket. This is mainly to do with his upright throwing motion, which utilizes every inch of that small frame.
He has a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch and a surprising Robert Turbin. He can get you points on the ground with his feet, and he limits the mistakes that seem to plague young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Moreover, Wilson has some nice weapons in the passing game. Zach Miller and Kellen Winslow Jr are going to act like nice safety valves between the hashes. Golden Tate has stepped up it and finally appears to be ready to live up to that second-round billing. Doug Baldwin and Sidney Rice are also going to be consistent threats when called upon on the outside. The real wildcard here is former Pro Bowl receiver Braylon Edwards, who seems to be back in shape and ready to make an impact after struggling through the past two seasons.
Wilson is a nice under-the-radar QB2 heading into the 2012 season. He should give you 3,200 passing yards, 400-to-500 rushing yards and a total of 20-plus touchdowns.
2. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
I am having a hard time choosing between the top two picks in the 2012 NFL draft here. Both bring something different to the table. RGIII will give you points on the ground because of his exceptional athletic ability. He is also playing behind what promises to be a pretty damn good offensive line.
One of my major worries as it relates to the Baylor product is the fact that he is going to be asked to be the face of an offense that really doesn’t possess truly elite players on the outside. Both Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan were solid pickups, but neither is a true No. 1 wide receiver. Instead, it seems that Washington has a bunch of second and third options on the outside.
Fred Davis at tight end and a solid foursome in the backfield should help the reigning Heisman Trophy Award Winner a great deal. He will be able to rely on checkdowns after getting past his second and third reads. Considering that RGIII played in a one-read offense in college, this is going to be a difficult transition for him. That being said, it doesn’t seem like the young quarterback has struggled in that aspect of his game during the preseason.
The upside and potential is limitless here. At some point in the not so distant future we will be talking about RGIII as a first-round fantasy prospect. For now, we are probably looking at a solid QB2. Look for something to the tune of 3,500 total yards and 25 touchdowns as a rookie.
1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
A couple weeks ago I had RGIII rated ahead of Luck. This has changed after watching and re-watching tape of the Stanford product. Luck looks as comfortable on the football field as a rookie quarterback that I have ever seen. He doesn’t get flustered in the pocket, makes great reads and is as accurate of a quarterback as you will ever find.
What impresses me the most about Luck is the fact that he seems to have picked up right where Peyton Manning left off with the Colts in 2010. By this I mean that Luck has control of the offense, makes players around him better and is already a true leader on the football field.
This doesn’t even take into account the amazing physical and athletic ability that Luck possesses. While there could be issues in regards to pass-protection, he does seem to step up well in the pocket to avoid pressure.
Reggie Wayne is going to be a consistent target on the outside for Luck as a rookie. He is also going to have youngster T.Y. Hilton to throw the ball to. As evidenced by their preseason connections, it seem that Luck and Hilton have a strong relationship going.
Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are going to be a solid 1-2 punch at tight end. This helps Luck out a great deal considering he is coming from a Stanford offense that loves to utilize tight ends. There is no reason to believe that Luck cannot surpass 3,800 passing yards and 25 touchdowns as a rookie. In terms of a ceiling, 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns isn’t out of the realm of possibility.