When the Houston Texans announced the hiring of Bill O’Brien as their new head coach, there was instant speculation about what the quarterback guru would do with the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Would he take the local star in Johnny Manziel who would sell tickets but might not be ready to start immediately, or would he take the most pro-ready quarterback in this class, Teddy Bridgewater, who is considered by many including myself to be the best player in the 2014 class. Then reports flowed on to social media, that O’Brien is openly an admired of Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles, and easily could be the first overall pick in May.

Bortles certainly has many of the characteristics that O’Brien looks for in his quarterback. O’Brien loves big quarterbacks, and at 6’4 and 230 pounds, Bortes fits right into that. He also offers impressive athleticism, as he showed in the bowl game against Baylor with 93 rushing yards. Bortles has the big arm, maneuverability in the pocket and size that O’Brien likes in a quarterback. O’Brien is very familiar with Bortles and saw him in person, when Bortles threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns against O’Brien’s Nittany Lions. But is he really worth the first overall pick, and if not where does his value fall?

I wrote about Bortles in December in my “What You Must Know About UCF QB Blake Bortles” profile story. While I spent a lot of time digging into his background, I also watched his games and made my evaluation. After Bortles solid performance in the Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor, I went back and watched his tape from 2013. While there is no denying Bortles offers a lot of potential, I’m not sold on him as even a top-30 prospect.

Bortles certainly has plenty of tools to offer, that a great coach like O’Brien could work with and turn him into a very good starting quarterback. Size, arm strength and athleticism all helped Bortles excel in college and make him an attractive prospect. But there are a plenty of flaws in his game, especially when looking at his mechanics, footwork and field vision.

While he has shown very good touch at times and fitting the ball into tight windows, he still has a lot of misses because of sloppy footwork. Bortles will just sometimes not set his feet and drive the ball to his wide receiver, instead just chucking the ball with his feet wild, and the throw will be off. Bortles also needs to do a better job using his eyes during the play; flipping between his reads to find the open wide receiver and if someone isn’t open, moving a defensive back over with his eyes to create some space in the secondary. Bortles really struggles finding the safety and it’s something he has struggled with for a while now.

These are all things that can be fixed by spending time with coaches and just progressively cleaning up the mechanics, footwork and becoming a smarter quarterback. It’s normal for college quarterbacks like Bortles to struggle in these areas, because they are just inexperienced and need time. Bortles announced today he will enter his name in the 2014 NFL Draft, and while it was a smart decision with the lack of depth in this class, Bortles isn’t ready to start in the NFL.

I view Bortles as a fringe first-round talent who should go in between picks 30-40, but because of how many teams need a quarterback, he will likely go much higher. The top-10 picks are filled with teams like the Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings all in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. So it’s very likely that will push Bortles into the top-10, especially with the talk that some scouts consider him to be the best quarterback in this class.

But if the Houston Texans and Bill O’Brien take Bortles with the first overall pick, not only will they be losing value but they would also be making a costly mistake by starting him right away. Bortles isn’t ready to start for an NFL team as a rookie but he will very likely wind up as a top-10 selection come May.