When it comes to Fantasy Football, perhaps the hardest part of drafting a team is being able to put aside how you feel about certain players with recognizable names and drafting the guys who will give your team the best chance to win each and every week. It's something everyone struggles with every year, myself included.
Here are some examples of two players statistics compared, without knowing which stat line belongs to who, you might be surprised to find out that a lot of the time, you can get just as much production out of lesser known players as you can out of the high-profile, big name running backs:
Player A: 1,263 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns
Player B: 1,243 yards rushing, 6 touchdowns
Any guesses who Player A is? What about Player B? Player A is New England Patriots running back Stevan Ridley, who was drafted significantly lower than Tennessee's Chris Johnson (Player B).
Player A: 1,425 yards, 15 touchdowns
Player B: 1,509 yards, 5 touchdowns
Now, before you say, 'Well Player A has 10 more touchdowns than Player B, how are these two players even comparable?' Let me answer that. Jamaal Charles (Player B) was on the worst team in the league (and almost always faced an eight-man box), while Arian Foster (Player A) was on one of the best teams in the league.
On top of that, Charles was injured and hardly used in a few games last season, while Foster was slated to share some carries with Ben Tate (including goal line carries). Tate was injured for much of the season, therefore making Foster carry the load. Injuries always throw a monkey wrench in to owner's teams post-draft, and are just as hard to predict who and when they're going to hit as how many touchdowns a certain position player will have. If you wanted Foster, you were going to have to draft him with your first round pick--while Charles wasn't drafted until the second or early-third round in most drafts.
Player A: 1,244 yards rushing, 6 touchdowns
Player B: 1,214 yards rushing, 8 touchdowns
While neither of these players were considered top running backs going in to the 2012-'13 NFL season, most fantasy owners thought that Frank Gore (Player B) would be much more productive than C.J. Spiller (Player A) just because Gore was going to be San Francisco's primary running back, while Spiller started the season sharing Buffalo's back field with Fred Jackson.
Jackson missed a few weeks due to injury early in the season, and Spiller excelled when given his chance to be the Bills' primary back. Not only did Spiller make the most of his opportunity after being handed the ball, when you factor in Spiller's production through the air, he and Gore were essentially fantasy equals. That will not be the case this season, as it would surprise a lot of people if Spiller wasn't Buffalo's starting running back, while it's entirely probable that Gore's production will go down due to the emergence of 49ers' quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
There are always better values on draft day, no matter what position you're talking about, and here is some evidence of that when it comes to some of the league's most productive wide receivers:
Player A: 1,382 yards receiving, 12 touchdowns
Player B: 1,350 yards receiving, 11 touchdowns
With Miles Austin being hurt and relatively ineffective last season, Dez Bryant (Player A) was really Tony Romo's only go-to wide out. Likewise, Andy Dalton almost always looked for A.J. Green (Player B) down the field. Green was one of the first three receivers off the board in almost everyone's draft last season, while Dez could still have been had in most fourth or fifth rounds.
Player A: 1,092 yards receiving, 10 touchdowns
Player B: 1,083 yards receiving, 1 touchdowns
Not only is this a great comparison of a much lesser-known receiver, Brian Hartline (Player B) putting up just as many yards through the air as a big name guy, Victor Cruz (Player A), it's also a perfect example of how it's next to impossible to predict just how many times someone will find the end zone (Did anyone predict James Jones to lead the league in receiving touchdowns with 14?). I remember saying before last year's draft that you can't expect Cruz to continue hauling in 80+ yard touchdowns from Eli Manning like he did in 2011, but apparently I was wrong, as he did just that.
Player A: 1,154 yards receiving, 10 touchdowns
Player B: 1,198 yards receiving, 10 touchdowns
I have to admit, when I was looking over last year's statistics, this one surprised even me. By now, anyone who follows me on Twitter or reads my eDraft columns with any regularity knows that Julio Jones (Player B) is my favorite player in the NFL (Technically, Tim Tebow is not in the NFL at the moment). Any guesses who Player A is?
If you guess New Orleans wide receiver, Marques Colston, you're right...but I'm guessing no one came up with that name. In my opinion, this is the best example there is terms of finding the same production much later in your draft. Julio was taken in the second round in most drafts (if you got him in the third, nice job; you definitely got a steal), while Colston wasn't drafted in the fourth or fifth round in most drafts--at the earliest.