The Washington Redskins led the league in rushing in 2012, and much of their success came on the back of Alfred Morris. The 173rd selection out of Florida Atlantic turned the page on a decade of futility in Washington, and became the surprise of the draft after being selected in the sixth round. Morris excelled carrying a whopping 335 times in his rookie season for a total of 1,613 yards and 13 touchdowns. The former rookie exceeded any realistic expectations, and ranked second in both yards and touchdowns behind Adrian Peterson , and Arian Foster respectively. Is Morris an early bloomer? Can his success be repeated after the “surprise factor” dies down?
As a rookie, Morris set the single season rushing record as a Redskin. Should this excellent production be expected? Or excused as a fluke? The 2012 season was a landmark one for running backs. Fellow rookie Doug Martin excelled in his first year as well, rushing for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns. Yet another first year player, Alabama’s Trent Richardson had a solid season as he ran for 950 yards and 11 touchdowns. Three rookies playing at such a high level is an anomaly of sorts, one cannot expect such unexpectedly spectacular production from running backs with so little experience. Morris’ rookie performance was the third most yards gained as a rookie all time, putting him in esteemed company. Only Erik Dickerson (1,808 yards) and George Rogers (1,674 yards) had more productive rookie campaigns.
What does this mean for the sustainability of Morris’ production? In the case of Dickerson, the former Los Angeles Ram went on to set the single season rushing record, led the league in rushing four separate times, and get himself into the Hall of Fame. Rogers played seven years in the league, and recorded over 7,000 yards rushing with 54 touchdowns. With a little luck, a successful rookie season correlates into a successful career. While Morris won’t sustain his torrid pace, he will continue to be a force to be reckoned with in the Redskins’ backfield for years to come.
Washington hopes that Morris will continue to decimate opposing defenses for the foreseeable future, but he won’t be able to without some help. The quality of play shown by the Redskins’ offensive line will go a long way in determining Morris’ success. Trent Williams is one of the best tackles in football, and should be able to help Morris get back over the 1,000 yard mark. Alongside the all-pro will be little known center Will Montgomery and guards Kory Lichtensteiger and Chris Chester . While these three are quality blockers, questions remain surrounding the integrity of the right tackle position. Tyler Polumbus is one of the more ineffective run blockers in the NFL, and will be a weak-spot on this line. The Redskins hope the play of Williams will overshadow Polumbus’s floundering in the trenches. Regardless, Washington’s offensive line should be more than capable of helping the Redskins’ return to the top of the rushing rankings.
In all seriousness, it is very unlikely that Morris will return to his 1,600 yard plateau in 2013. However, I believe the former 6th rounder has what it takes to succeed in the NFL. With a powerful rushing style, quick burst speed, and good play-awareness, Morris has all the tools to thrive in today’s “softer” NFL. As long as Roger Goodell doesn’t start passing out flag-belts, Morris should continue his dominance at the professional level.
Alfred Morris 2013 Projection: 1,200 yards, 11 TDs.