Alex Smith may have lead the San Francisco 49ers to a 13-win season and overtime loss away from the Super Bowl in 2011. He may have orchastrated one of the greatest fourth quarters for a quarterback in recent playoff history when the 49ers came back twice to defeat the New Orleans Saints in that epic divisional round matchup.
He didn't do much in terms of fantasy numbers. Smith was ranked 14th in fantasy points among quarterbacks by ESPN. Does this mean that he should be one of the first QB2's taking when drafts roll around later this month? I am not too entirely sure of that.
His record-low five interceptions and ability to avoid turnovers was nearly as great as his inability to get the ball in the end zone and give your fantasy team consistent points. Of course outside factors played into this, but a quarterback that started 16 games has to be relied on for more than 20 touchdowns in fantasy football.
What has changed?
It is important to remember that Smith and the 49ers didn't have an offseason to work in a new offensive scheme and coaching staff a long with a few different players. While the same could be said for other teams in the same situation, Jim Harbaugh and Co. knew perfectly well that they were not going to be able to “air it out” on Sunday's without those few weeks that training camp provides.
As a result, San Francisco was still running new plays when the postseason rolled around against the Saints. Imagine that, they had not even digested the entire playbook by January. The result was a watered down offensive scheme focusing on the nuts and bolts, the running game.
This won't be the case in 2012. San Francisco has had a seamless transition to new personnel and a few different strategies in the offseason. Moreover, they have called on some of the foremost experts in quarterback technique to help Smith hone his skills. The results have been astonishing of late. I was able to watch an entire day of training camp and noticed that Smith had indeed become more accurate. CSN Bay Area 49ers' reporter Matt Maiocco has come to the conclusion that this is “by far the best camp of Smith's career...It isn't even close.”
The 49ers also added a wide array of different skill position players on the offensive side of the ball. Mario Manningham and Randy Moss were signed at bargain prices in free agency. Both might have question-marks, but they are definitely upgrades from last season. Moss, a future Hall of Famer, seems to be having a great camp and looks just as good as he did four seasons ago with the New England Patriots.
Michael Crabtree, who played in his first preseason game last week since being drafted in 2009, has had nearly as impressive of an offseason as his veteran counterpart. The 49ers return Vernon Davis at tight end and added A.J. Jenkins in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft. The skill position players are going to be there for Smith to succeed.
Additionally, San Francisco promises to have a vastly improved offensive line. Joe Staley made his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2011, Mike Iupati was snubbed out of a trip to Hawaii and Jonathan Goodwin is a former Pro Bowl performer. Alex Boone has been impressive since moving inside and promises to be a stellar guard starting in 2012. The only question here is Anthony Davis, who continues to underwhelm audiences with substandard play. Though, he did pick it up towards the latter half of 2011.
You also have to take into account an increased amount of talent in the backfield. San Francisco signed Brandon Jacobs away from the New York Giants. He seems to have that giddy up that made the bulldozer such an impact player for New York just a couple seasons ago. They also went out there and drafted LaMichael James, a duel-threat, in the second-round of April's draft. This is only going to help Smith and the passing game.
One other thing to take into account when looking at Smith's fantasy value. Is it realistic to believe that the 49ers are going to be +28 in the turnover battle again this season? I am thinking not. This means that San Francisco is going to have to drive the distance of the field a lot more in this season than they did in 2011. With their talent on offense, there is no reason to believe that they won't be able to.
Conclusion/Prediction
Smith will see his interception numbers increase in 2012. There is no way he can sustain a 105-1 pass attempt-to-interception ratio. This doesn't mean that Smith shouldn't be valued as a possible under-the-radar QB2.
I am projecting 3,700 yards, 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. This puts him smack dab in the middle of the QB2 conversation. Buy low on this fellow.