Daily Fantasy Football: An Early Look at Week 1 Value Plays

By Matt Johnson on Wednesday, July 22nd 2015
Daily Fantasy Football: An Early Look at Week 1 Value Plays

It's beginning to look a lot like football season, with the calendar ticking down to NFL training camps kicking off. The excitement for the upcoming season has only been hightened even more with FanDuel opening the first Daily Fantasy Football contests for Week 1.

While we are still just over six weeks away from Week 1 and the NFL DFS season kicking off on September 13, it's never too early to take a look at what players are priced and start finding early value plays, studs and of course the expensive duds that we should all avoid. So let's take a look at some of the best value plays as of now.

The scoring system for FanDuel is as follows:

Offense: RuY = 0.1pts, RuTD = 6pts, PaY = 0.04pts, PaTD = 4pts, I = -1pts, ReY = 0.1pts, ReTD = 6pts, Re = 0.5pts, KR/TD = 6pts, PR/TD = 6pts, FU/L = -2pts, FU/TD = 6pts, 2PC/S = 2pts, 2PC/P = 2pts, FGu20 = 3pts, FGu30 = 3pts, FGu40 = 3pts, FGu50 = 4pts, FGo50 = 5pts, PAT/P = 1pts
Defense: DE/S = 1pts, DE/FR = 2pts, DE/RTD = 6pts, DE/FRTD = 6pts, DE/RTD = 6pts, DE/RTD = 6pts, DE/SF = 2pts, DE/B = 2pts, DE/I = 2pts, DE/PA0 = 10pts, DE/PA1-6 = 7pts, DE/PA7-13 = 4pts, DE/PA14-20 = 1pts, DE/PA 28-34 = -1pts, DE/PA35+ = -4pts

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($8,400)

Dual-threat quarterbacks are magical in the right circumstances. When they get the right matchup, it turns into the potential for a top-five performance that week at the position. For example, Newton's 35-point game last year against the New Orleans Saints. In that game, Newton had 226 passing yards, 83 rushing yards and four total touchdowns (one rushing).

The Panthers will kick off their season against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a defense that was bottom 10 in yards per game and points allowed. While some additions, like Davon House and Jared Odrick will help, the secondary is still young and needs work, while DL Sen'derrick Marks will be returning from a torn ACL in Week 16.

It provides an excellent opportunity for Newton to have a big game, though we may not see as many rushing yards as his game last year versus New Orleans. But we can't rule out a 300-total yard and three-touchdown game, which is an excellent return at $8,400.

Running Back

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions ($5,900)

This pick depends moderately on the health of Joique Bell, the Lions' lead back and the "bulldozer" of their running game. Bell battled lower-leg injuries last year but he still played in 15 games last year. Now his recovery from surgery on his knees and Achilles in the offseason has gone slowly. For a player who has had durability concerns and health red flags in the past, it's concerning to hear ESPN's Lions' reporter Michael Rothstein say Detroit is more concerned with his health.

If Bell's recovery time continues to stretch further into the Lions' calendar, he could be limited heading into the pre-season and potentially early in the season. If that's the case, Abdullah immediately becomes the lead back for the Lions. He has been drawing rave reviews from beat writers and coaches for the abilities he has put on display through OTA's and minicamps. 

Abdullah's ability will show on third down as a pass-catcher and Detroit plans to have him return kicks as well. On FanDuel, you get 0.5 points per receptions and Abdullah should see plenty of work against a weak Chargers' defense. There are 40 running backs that will cost you more than Abdullah, making him an outstanding value as an RB2.

Wide Receiver

Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,500)

Coming across a player at this price who offers substantial upside and a nice floor is always a blessing. Jones' clearance rack price can likely be connected to him missing all of last season with foot/ankle injuries and the Bengals' quarterback is Andy Dalton. His price will only go up as he proves himself, but you have to take advantage right now.

In Week One, the Bengals will face an Oakland Raiders' secondary that was mediocre on its best days. They finished with a -42.8 pass-coverage grade from Pro Football Focus.  While the hiring of Ken Norton Jr as defensive coordinator was a great one, there are still question marks in the secondary that a coach can't magically turn around.

The Raiders will be focused on stopping A.J. Green, just as every defense does when facing the Bengals. They will shade safety help over to Green and that will open up one-on-one opportunities for Jones. When Jones was healthy in 2013, he finished with 51 receptions for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jones is in the perfect situation to put up 70 yards and a touchdown. 

Tight End

Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins, ($5,500)

While this comes as more of expensive taste, given Cameron is the ninth-most expensive tight end, the difference between the ranks is a short amount in prices. The former Browns' tight end is now in a much better situation than the old days with the Cleveland Browns and their constant striving for quarterback purgatory.

Now in Miami, he will be surrounded by other weapons and actually have the opportunity to see less attention from the defense and have a chance for bigger plays. The greatest news of all is he now has Ryan Tannehill, a quarterback rising up the ranks in the spotlight as a very good quarterback.

Miami faces off against a pedestrian Washington' defense that was bad last season, but made enough moves to make some improvement for this season. While improvements have been made, the questions remain at free safety and the inside linebacker duo of Perry Riley and Keenan Robinson are poor in coverage. This is great news for Cameron, a physical specimen who can get open over the middle and expose Washington's linebackers. A big game should certainly be in store for him.

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