Matthew Stafford, DET vs. CLE, ($6,800)
Simply put, Stafford offers the highest probability to finish as Sunday's highest-scoring quarterback. He faces a Cleveland Browns defense that surrenders the second-highest quarterback rating (103) and fourth-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, Cleveland's front seven is one of the worst in the league at putting pressure on the quarterback with only 16 sacks on the year, which ranks 23rd in the league. Needless to stay, Stafford will have plenty of time to throw to the likes of Marvin Jones and Golden Tate against a porous Browns' secondary. Stafford offers a clear path to post 320-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns in this game, an excellent return on the price and a great play for tournaments.
Jordan Howard, CHI vs. GB, ($6,100)
Howard locks in as an RB1 in a great matchup against the Green Bay Packers. While Green Bay's defense is above average versus the run on the season, the numbers take a step back when you look over its past three games. During that span, Green Bay surrendered 319 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Those numbers could be even worse if Ameer Abdullah didn't fumble at the goal line last week.
Chicago is favored in this game and a positive game script with an early lead for Chicago and shorter fields when the Bears' defense forces three-and-outs. It should allow Howard to see 20-plus touches in this game and receive carries inside the red zone. With a 4.1 yards per carry average and the quality matchup, Howard's ceiling could easily put him in range for 100-plus yards and a rushing touchdown. As an RB1 for a little over $6,000, that's the return on investment we are looking for.
Carlos Hyde, SF v. NYG, ($6,300)
In an RB2, we always want to look for volume. Upside is a key factor that helps determine it as well, but a running back that we can count on for 18-plus touches and work in the passing game. Hyde fits that mold perfectly given his heavy usage in San Francisco's offense. He is third in receptions amongst running backs this season, but there's also a significant difference between him and the two above him. Unlike Christian McCaffrey and James White, Hyde is locked in for 12-plus rushing attempts and is a fixture of the running game.
While the Giants aren't amongst the leaders in receptions allowed to opposing running backs, San Francisco could use Hyde as frequently in the passing game as other teams target tight ends against New York. With 40 receptions on the season and 30 in his past four games, Hyde is a safe bet for at least six additional DK points through the receiving game. Add on his work in the running game in a quality matchup and his work near the goal line, Hyde is a great DFS play this weekend.
Robby Anderson, NYJ @ TB, ($5,200)
Marvin Jones, CLE @ DET, ($6,200)
Antonio Brown, PIT @ IND, ($9,500)
Cooper Kupp, LAR v. HOU, ($4,600)
Garrett Celek, SF v. NYG, ($2,500)
From the tight end position, DFS players typically seek the value play. While some percentages of lineups will certainly have the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Evan Engram, better wide receivers can be found at those price points. It's different at tight end, where the value plays usually sit around the $3,200-$3,600 tier. AT that price, you get a better return than wide receivers at that price range and it allows lineups to boast better wide receivers or running backs.
It's rare to target a tight end at the bare minimum of pricing. In nearly every case, they are backup players who see limited snaps and would be lucky to catch two passes for 15 yards. That's not the case with Celek, who becomes San Francisco's starting and only tight end with George Kittle out. When Kittle missed snaps last week, Celek finished the game with four targets and he saw 50 targets when he played significant snaps in 2016.
With a high percentage of snaps coming his way this week, Celek immediately jumps onto the value play sheet in a great matchup. Facing a Giants' defense that allowed 18 touchdowns to tight ends in eight games, it seems a safe bet to expect Celek to receive some red zone targets on Sunday. If he can even give owners three receptions for 30-plus yards and a touchdown, that's an incredible return on your investment at tight end.
New York Jets D/ST @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ($2,800)
Without Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, the Jets face a Buccaneers' offense that is simply a mess. Tampa Bay's running backs average just 3.7 yards per carry, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL, and its passing attack will be a mess. While Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly can throw the ball deep, his accuracy is not something anyone could trust consistently. The 34-year-old failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in his last two seasons as a starting quarterback and is turnover prone. New York's young secondary should see opportunities for some turnovers in this game and with some added pressure from the defensive line, this could turn into a quality performance for Gang Green.