It’s been a few years since the NFC West provided many compelling storylines. For most of a decade, apart from a couple individual seasons, it’s been mocked as the “NFC Worst,” the basement of the NFL. The St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers have been in the division since the division was formed in 1967 as the NFL Coastal Division, before the AFL-NFL merger. The Seattle Seahawks spent their inaugural 1976 season in the NFC West before moving to the AFC West. They were there until 2002, when they returned to the NFC West along with the Arizona Cardinals.
Someone has to win the division each year, obviously, and all four teams have taken turns at the top since the realignment a decade ago. The Rams have only won the currently-structured NFC West once, in 2003. The Cardinals took the title in 2008 and 2009, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl in 2009. The Seahawks have won the division five times in the last ten years (2004-2007 and 2010), also losing to the Steelers in the Super Bowl, this time in 2005. And the 49ers have controlled the division for the last two years, losing in the Super Bowl to the Baltimore Ravens this last season.
However, things are looking up in the West. All four teams finished in the top ten in defensive DVOA in 2012, and Seattle and San Francisco ended up fourth and fifth, respectively, in offensive DVOA. The toughness and physicality of the four squads has led many to dub the NFC West “the new AFC North,” with the usual comparisons being the 49ers to the Steelers, the Seahawks to the Ravens, the Rams to the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cardinals to the Cleveland Browns.
So where do these teams stand in relation to one another as we look forward to the 2013 NFL season? Let’s take a look.
San Francisco 49ers
As the two-time defending champs of the division, the 49ers will likely be the considered the favorites heading into the season. However, it’s important they not rest on their laurels, as they only narrowly edged the Seahawks by a half a game, and the Rams improved dramatically from 2011 to 2012.
Colin Kaepernick stepped in and performed admirably for any quarterback, much less a second-year kid out of Nevada. Their offensive line is comprised entirely of top picks, and as such is second to none. That talent and diversity frees them up to be one of the most multiple and difficult-to-contain offenses in the league. They currently have 14 picks in the upcoming draft, to go along with a little over $2 million in cap space.
Randy Moss was a valuable component for last season, but they need to let him walk and see what they have in last year’s first-round pick, A.J. Jenkins. Mario Manningham suffered a gruesome leg injury in their Week 16 battle in Seattle, and he’s only under contract through 2013, so if he’s not able to contribute significantly next year, they may need to consider investing in a serious difference-maker to play opposite their budding young star, Michael Crabtree.
After seeing their defense torched for nearly 30 points per game over their last six games, despite allowing only 13 ppg in their first fourteen games, they’ll need to consider investing in upgrades from strong safety Donte Whitner and cornerback Chris Culliver. Nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga had an underwhelming season, and those last six games corresponded closely to a serious triceps injury to defensive end Justin Smith. He’s 33 and only under contract for one more year, so they need to find a capable replacement for their best defensive player.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the 49ers will be a shoo-in playoff team next year, and may likely win the division for a third year in a row.
Seattle Seahawks
Under Pete Carroll and John Schneider, the Seahawks have executed one of the fastest turnarounds in NFL history, completely rebuilding the entire organization in only three years. Marcus Trufant and LeRoy Hill were the only holdovers on the roster that Carroll and Schneider inherited, and they almost certainly won’t be back next season.
In an interview with Adam Schein on Sirius radio in December of 2011, Schneider revealed that they’ve been anticipating the rebuild to take until at least through this upcoming draft before they would consider themselves a championship-caliber team. Russell Wilson played a major role in accelerating that timetable. Finding a quarterback who can step in and play at a high level as a rookie is a big deal. Finding one in the third round is huge. For that reason, the Seahawks can approach this offseason as an opportunity to use their twelve draft picks and $18 million in cap space to bolster their depth rather than search for core building blocks.
Contrary to popular opinion, their biggest needs are on defense, especially if they let Hill and Trufant walk. They desperately need interior pressure on the defensive line. Jason Jones provided that as a hybrid defensive end/defensive tackle early in the season before he was cut down by a knee injury. They may elect to bring him back on another smaller contract, but they’ll add at least one more player to compete at that position. Chris Clemons, their starting LEO, went down in the playoffs with a torn ACL, so they’ll need to add talent at defensive end as well.
On offense, they could use at least one more significant receiving threat for Wilson. That may be in the form of a big flex tight end or a field-stretching burner of a wide receiver. They also need depth at offensive tackle, with Breno Giacomini entering his contract year and unlikely to be re-signed in his age 29 season.
As always with the Seahawks, they won’t pass up talent at any position. Pete Carroll preaches “Always Compete” at every spot on the field, so don’t completely rule out anyone. The Seahawks will be another playoff favorite entering the season, and they have a good chance of winning the division as well.
St. Louis Rams
A couple of years ago, the Rams were the laughingstock of the division, and maybe even the NFL. They were hapless on offense and defense without much hope on the horizon. Then Jeff Fisher showed up, and the turnaround has been dramatic. They added good talent in the draft last year, drafting ten times and still leaving themselves with eight more picks this year, including two first-round picks. They also have around $10 million in cap space, though I’d expect them to keep most of that as breathing room.
They hit big on three cornerbacks last year, Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson in the draft and Cortland Finnegan in free agency. They have perhaps the best defensive line in the NFL, featuring former first-round picks Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers, as well as solid starters in Kendall Langford and Eugene Sims. James Laurinaitis and Jo-Lonn Dunbar are at the core of solid group of linebackers, so don’t look for a big addition there, especially with a nickel cornerback as talented as Johnson.
Their biggest needs are coverage safety, wide receiver/tight end, and offensive line. Sam Bradford has been running for his life all three years he’s been in the NFL, so it’s time for the Rams to give him some elite protection. And apart from Brandon Lloyd in the past and Danny Amendola more recently, he’s rarely had reliable receiving threats. Brian Quick and Chris Givens have potential as a big possession receiver and a deep threat, respectively, and Lance Kendricks is an underrated tight end who was really starting to step up his game at the end of 2013. However, they could use one more solid, reliable target.
Finally, they need a deep centerfielder who can cover the deep middle, freeing their cornerbacks to play press coverage on the outside. Quintin Mikell is a good in-the-box enforcer, so they may use one of their first round picks on an underrated safety class.
By nailing a solid draft and picking up a key free agent or two, the Rams could make the division race really entertaining, perhaps even sneaking in the playoffs as an unheralded second Wild Card team from one division.
Arizona Cardinals
Finally, we have the Cardinals. They’re a bit of a trainwreck at the moment. Ever since Kurt Warner moved on, they’ve devolved into one of the worst teams in the league. They started last season a surprising 4-0, then proceeded to drop an unprecedented nine straight games, culminating in a 58-0 shellacking at the hands of the Seahawks. They turned around and unleashed some fury on a nosediving Detroit Lions squad the next week, knocking them off 38-10. But they dropped the last game of the season to the 49ers, finishing at a generous 5-11.
They moved on from head coach Ken Whisenhunt and defensive coordinator Ray Horton, replacing them with Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles. They have a very talented defense, so Bowles has plenty of tools to work with. Defensive end Darnell Dockett, inside linebacker Daryl Washington, cornerback Patrick Peterson, and recently-extended defensive end Calais Campbell anchor an aggressive, nasty unit that should continue to suppress points and force turnovers. Where they really need help is on offense.
Arians’ vertical offense has propelled both Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck to Pro Bowl seasons as young quarterbacks, so he may be just what the doctor ordered for their flailing offense. Don’t expect Kevin Kolb to be the starting QB. He doesn’t fit Arians’ offense at all; he’s better suited to a timing-based West Coast offense. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton at least fit the profile a little bit, so they may get a look. However, Arians shouldn’t hesitate to snag his ideal quarterback in the draft and cut him loose to throw to Larry Fitzgerald and 2012 first-round pick Michael Floyd.
The Cardinals are currently over the cap by about $720,000, so they won't be signing any free agents this offseason. They do have eight draft picks, though, so they can still add some good talent. They desperately need talent along the offensive line, so if a quarterback doesn’t strike Arians’ fancy in the top of the first round, expect them to take the best offensive lineman available. If Beanie Wells can’t prove he can stay healthy, he doesn’t have the requisite talent to keep his job, so they may target a running back in the upper rounds as well.
Given their numerous holes on the offensive line and their inexperience at quarterback, it’ll probably take a year or two for their offense to really start clicking, but ending up on a team with Larry Fitzgerald is the softest landing a new head coach or rookie quarterback could hope for.
Conclusion
All these considered, there is plenty of talent in the NFC West and no shortage of hard feelings. These teams don’t like each other. San Francisco is in the driver’s seat, but Seattle and St. Louis are on the upswing, and Arizona’s best days are ahead of them. That’s the recipe for a fascinating narrative, so keep a close eye on the NFC “Best” in 2013.