The San Diego Chargers wrapped up the No. 6 seed in the AFC in Week 17 by virtue of a controversial win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They will take on the AFC North champions in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are undefeated at home this season.
Here is everything you need to know about this AFC Wild Card matchup.
Sunday, January 5th 2014 (1:05 PM ET)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati OH
Station: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson (sidelines).
Point Spread: Bengals (-7)
Over/Under: 46.5
Expected Game-Time Weather: 33 degrees with rain/snow mix. 8 MPH to NE.
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense | Team | PPG | Passing Yds | Rushing Yds | Total Yds | Sacks | Turnover Diff. |
| Chargers | 24.8 (12) | 270.5 (4) | 122.8 (13) | 393.5 (5) | 30 (4) | -4 (20) |
| Bengals | 19.1 (6) | 209.0 (5) | 96.5 (5) | 305.5 (3) | 43 (10) | +1 (13) |

Talk about strength vs strength. San Diego's offense ranks in the top-five of the NFL in passing yards and total yards. It has also picked up its running game a great deal recently, averaging 164 rushing yards per game in its last four outings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has yielded less than 100 rushing yards 10 different times this season. One of San Diego's keys to success in this one will by Ryan Mathews, who is playing stellar football as of late.
Cincinnati gave up less than 17 points per game at home during the regular year, while the Mike McCoy-led Chargers averaged nearly 25 points per game away from San Diego during the regular season.
As to where San Diego's turnover differential on the season is negative four, it's actually plus three on the road since a five-turnover performance against the Oakland Raiders at O.co back in Week 5. For their part, the Bengals possessed a plus three turnover margin at home, but did turn it over four times against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense | Team | PPG | Passing Yds | Rushing Yds | Total Yds | Sacks | Turnover Diff. |
| Bengals | 26.9 (6) | 258.5 (8) | 109.7 (18) | 368.2 (10) | 29 (3) | +1 (13) |
| Chargers | 21.8 (11) | 258.7 (29) | 107.8 (12) | 366.5 (23) | 43 (10) | -4 (20) |

This appears to be somewhat of a mismatch in the yardage categories, but the Chargers have played a bend, but not break style of defense. This means that they have toughened up when it counts the most. On the other hand, Cincinnati kicked the least amount of field goals in the NFL and still ranked in the top six in scoring during the regular year. This means that it was solid in terms of punching the ball into the end zone during the regular year.
Cincinnati also averaged a whopping 43.6 points per game in its final five home games of the season and went undefeated at Paul Brown Stadium.
The interesting thing here, especially if statistics from the regular season hold true, is that we can project, without much of a problem, Cincinnat's offensive output come Sunday. You are looking at 259 passing yards, 108 rushing yards and 367 total yards. Of course, that's too simple, isn't it?
Key Matchups
Antonio Gates vs Reggie Nelson and/or George Iloka: Even at 33, Gates is still Rivers' favorite target in San Diego. He caught 71 percent of the passes thrown in his direction for nearly 900 yards during the regular year. For their part, the Bengals only yielded an average of 42 receiving yards to tight ends on the regular season. Iloka started getting more reps at free safety throughout the season, which enabled Nelson to play multiple roles in the defensive secondary. Both put up positive grades in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus.
Andy Dalton vs Philip Rivers: Which one of these struggling playoff performers will step up and prove that their dismal performances are a thing of the past? Dalton has lost both of his postseason starts, each on the road, and has thrown zero touchdowns compared to four interceptions with a quarterback rating under 50. Rivers, who hasn't seen postseason action since 2009, has had some more success there. He's 3-4 as a starter and has put up eight touchdowns compared to nine interceptions.
Despite throwing four interceptions in his last home against Baltimore, Dalton has been much better at Paul Brown stadium than he has been on the road. He finished with 20 touchdowns and just nine interceptions with a rating nearing triple digits. On the other hand, Rivers was equally as good on the road as he was at home during the regular season. He finished with a .500 record and 107.1 rating away from San Diego.
Ryan Mathews vs Stingy Bengals Run Defense: Believe it or not, Mathews has been a stud this season for San Diego. He finished the regular year by averaging over 135 yards per game in his final four outings and put up over 1,400 total yards with seven touchdowns on the season. Cincinnati's run defense is among the best in the league, giving up less than 100 yards per outing. It finished on a high note by yielding only 47 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 17.
A.J. Green vs Shareece Wright: This has to be classified as a ridiculous mismatch. While San Diego may turn to the more veteran of its two starters in Richard Marshall, it's important to note that he finished a -11.7 coverage grade by Pro Football Focus. Wright may have put up worst overall numbers than his teammate, but he has normally lined up on that side of the field during the year. Either way you put it, San Diego's secondary is in over its head in this one.
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton: 61.9 completion, 4,293 passing yards, 183 rushing yards, 35 total touchdowns, 20 interceptions and a 88.8 rating.
Giovani Bernard: 695 rushing yards, 56 receptions, 514 yards and eight total touchdowns
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 756 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns.
A.J. Green: 98 receptions, 1,426 yards and 11 touchdowns
Marvin Jones: 51 receptions, 712 yards and 10 touchdowns
Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert: 75 receptions, 903 yards and six touchdowns
San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers: 69.5 completion, 4,478 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 105.5 rating.
Ryan Mathews: 1,255 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 189 yards and seven total touchdowns
Danny Woodhead: 4.0 average, 429 rushing yards, 76 receptions, 605 yards and eight touchdowns
Keenan Allen: 71 receptions, 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns
Eddie Royal: 47 receptions, 631 yards and eight touchdowns
Antonio Gates: 77 receptions, 872 yards and four touchdowns