Expect Early Season Struggles from These 5 Tight Ends

By Jonathan Munshaw on Wednesday, August 28th 2013
Expect Early Season Struggles from These 5 Tight Ends

Between Rob Gronkowski’s injury, the arrest of Aaron Hernandez and the age of Antonio Gates, tight end could easily turn out to be the most shallow fantasy football position in 2013.

Which makes setting up the tight end spot in rosters that much more important. Most fantasy players likely didn’t end the draft with two tight ends on their rosters, but picking up a deep sleeper on waivers could turn out to be helpful.

There are five tight ends who are going high in drafts that will get out to slow starts to begin the year. A flier tight end such as Zach Sudfeld or either Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen could end up putting up more points than these five guys who will struggled coming out of the gate this season.


Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Davis’s value was inflated this offseason after Michael Crabtree was lost for the year, and most everyone assumed Davis would get more targets from quarterback Colin Kaepernick. But despite his experience in the league, Davis is likely to get off to shaky start. I expect the 49ers offense to take a step back this season in general because of the loss of Crabtree, and Kaepernick will have more designed runs for him in this year’s offense.

The 29-year-old got off to a great start in 2012, scoring four touchdowns in his first four games, but really fell off when Kaepernick took over at quarterback. After Kaepernick took over as the starter in San Fran in Week 10 against the St. Louis Rams, Davis only had one game of double-digit fantasy points, according to Fantasy Football Toolbox, and had two games of zero points in non-PPR leagues. There’s a chance Davis will build a rapport with Kaepernick as the season goes on, but expect his numbers from the end of last regular season to carry over into 2013.


Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Although Rudolph only recorded 493 yards last year, he picked up nine touchdowns in 16 games, which gave him tremendous fantasy value. However, touchdowns are almost impossible to predict. There will also likely be hard to come by on the Vikings, considering they still have Adrian Peterson running the ball, and Christian Ponder throwing it. Rudolph has a nice future ahead of him in the NFL, but the near future in Minnesota looks pretty bleak. Ponder only had 18 touchdowns, which means half of them went to Rudolph. You can’t expect the percentages to work out like that year-in and year-out. Minnesota also plays two out of the top 10 defenses last year in passing yards in their first four games, so don’t expect Rudolph to get off to hot start.


Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams

Cook has been expected to blow up eventually considering his level of talent, but in three years with the Tennessee Titans, Cook didn’t do much, scoring four touchdowns in three seasons. Now in St. Louis, he’s not likely to take much of a leap forward. Sam Bradford only completed 54 percent of his passes from inside the opponent’s 19-yard-line, the space where a tight end becomes most valuable. Cook is a quality talent, but he’s on a lot of people’s “never again” lists for burning them so many times in the past, and St. Louis certainly isn’t the place to go if you’re looking for touchdowns.


Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Daniels has been with the Texans every year since he came into the league in 2006, and since then has eclipsed 500 yards in the past six seasons. Daniels was targeted 103 times last year by quarterback Matt Schaub, and had the highest touchdown total of his career. The 30-year-old is the most consistent player on this list, but the Texans are likely to run more this year than ever especially if Arian Foster is healthy. In 2012, Houston only threw the ball 46 more times than they did run and Shaub only completed 57 percent of his passes inside the red zone. Daniels will turn out to be a quality fantasy tight end this season, but through the first four games or so the Texans will be a run-first offense and Daniels will not have nearly has many targets as he did last year.


Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Olsen is coming off a career year, catching 69 passes for 843 yards and five touchdowns. But Carolina will face a tough start to their season, facing three top-10 passing defenses in the first four years (Seattle, Buffalo and Arizona). Olsen is also a feast or famine kind of player, scoring 51 percent of his fantasy points in weeks 4, 10, 13 and 14. There was a stretch between weeks 5 and 9 where Olsen didn’t surpass five fantasy points, posting three in week 5 against the Seahawks, who Carolina plays in their first game. With Cam Newton at quarterback there’s going to be completions and touchdowns to go around, and Olsen should have some quality games in him, but with the quality of opponents they have to face an above-six point game isn’t going to happen.
 

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