Quarterbacks
1. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Getting Kelvin Benjamin back is going to be absolutely huge. Some seem to forget that the standout rookie in 2014 missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Despite this, Newton still finished as the top fantasy quarterback by nearly three points per game. Think about that one for a second. In a recent podcast episode of Fantasy Fugazi, this one scribe noted that Newton is the only quarterback he'd take in the first four rounds. That's how much ahead of the rest of the pack the reigning NFL MVP is right now.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers put up his worst statistical campaign in years last season. His passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns and quarterback rating all decreased from each of the past four seasons. As with Newton, Rodgers was impacted a great deal by an ACL injury his favorite receiver suffered. Jordy Nelson was lost for the year during the preseason slate, forcing Randall Cobb into a questionable role as the team's No. 1 wide receiver. With Nelson back, Rodgers should improve off last year's performance. Interestingly enough, Rodgers still found a way to finish as a top-seven fantasy quarterback last season.
3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Brees over Russell Wilson? Have we completely lost our minds? Well, there's something to be said about consistency in fantasy football — something that Brees has provided throughout his career. The future Hall of Famer has tallied 4,800-plus passing yards and 30-plus scores in each of the past five seasons. Last year alone, Brees put up a league-best 4,870 passing yards with 32 scores. This enabled him to finish as the sixth-best fantasy quarterback. Look for much of the same in 2016.
4. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
With Marshawn Lynch now fully into retirement, the Seahawks are now Wilson's team. This bodes extremely well for Wilson's ability to continue where he left off last year, finishing as the third-best fantasy quarterback.
Notice a trend here? Seattle didn't ask Wilson to do a whole bunch early in his career. But once the team was forced to demand he perform as the face of the offense, the quarterback picked it up big time. The only reason we have Brees ahead of Wilson is sample size. The Saints quarterback has proven his fantasy worth over a much longer span of time. That counts for something in re-draft leagues.
5. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Palmer finished last season as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback, tallying career highs in passing yards (4,671) and passing touchdowns (35). He also tied Cam Newton as the most-consistent fantasy quarterback.
There's really no reason for this to change in 2016. Not only does Palmer have Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd coming back, he's going to be working with young stud running back David Johnson for the entire season. With an ADP that has him as the seventh quarterback off the board, Palmer should be considered one of the better top-end values here.
6. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Finishing as the fourth-best quarterback last season, Bortles numbers were a bit misleading. Forced to throw the ball a lot due to a poor defense, he had ample opportunities to put up fantasy points. More than that, Bortles finished significantly lower in consistency (ninth) than he did in overall fantasy output. That's a bit concerning. That's also why we dropped him down a spot or two in our rankings. Still, there's a ton to like with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns catching passes from the young signal caller. QB1 production is a near certainty here.
7. Eli Manning, New York Giants
One of the most under-valued quarterbacks heading into the season, Manning's current ADP has him as an eighth-round pick. If that's the case in your particular draft, make sure you take the bait. Here's a guy that threw for over 4,400 yards with 35 scores a season ago, ranking him 10th among fantasy quarterbacks. Equally as important, Manning is entering his first season with Ben McAdoo as the team's head coach. The veteran has progressed leaps and bounds in his offense over the past two seasons. Look for another stellar fantasy performance here.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Suspensions to Martavis Bryant and Le'Veon Bell surely hurt here. With Bryant, that's the team's No. 2 leading receiver a season ago lost for the entire 2016 campaign. While this will surely lead to even more targets for Antonio Brown, it should have a negative impact on Big Ben's overall fantasy relevance. Here's a guy that averaged 328 passing yards last season but failed to tally more than 21 touchdowns in 12 starts. With Bryant lost for the season and a dynamic running back duo (when Bell returns), this promises to continue in 2016.
Still, it's hard to deny the large amount of passing yards Big Ben is capable of putting up. With a few more touchdowns, he will likely crack the top 10. Though, Roethlisberger's ADP as the fifth quarterback off the board is a bit absurd right now.
9. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
We have to be expecting a rebound season from Luck in 2016, right? Here's a guy that finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of his first three NFL seasons. An injury plagued 2015 campaign doesn't mitigate the fact that Luck is capable of putting up some huge stats. Remember, here's a dude that finished first overall in fantasy consistency back in 2014. You don't lose that capability based off a minimal sample size that was marred by injuries.
10. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
We absolutely love Carr heading into the 2016 season. His ADP as the 13th quarterback off the board is ridiculously low based off what the young signal caller did last season and his upside heading into this year. Carr finished last season as the 14th-best fantasy quarterback, tallying nearly 4,000 yards with 32 scores. He helped rookie Amari Cooper put up 1,000 yards and connected with Michael Crabtree on 85 receptions throughout the year.
This was Carr's sophomore season in the NFL. If you're talking top-five upside from a quarterback that's being valued as a mid-round pick, don't look any further than this youngster.
11. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Consistency, consistency and more consistence. Romo has finished as a QB1 option in each of the past seven seasons he's remained relatively healthy. During that very same span, the underrated quarterback has finished in the top seven four times. Simply put, when Romo is on the field, he performs at a high level from a fantasy standpoint. Dropped down a notch due to his injury-riddled 2015 campaign, Romo still represents tremendous value here. After all, he's currently being valued as a ninth-round pick based on ADP. (Note, Romo now expected to miss 6-10 weeks with broken bone in back).
12. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Losing a quarter of the season to suspension surely does hurt here. From a pure mathematical standpoint, Brady would have to average 26 percent more fantasy points per game than his counterparts to finish ahead of them when all is said and done. Though, Brady's ADP is surely taking this into account. He's currently being valued as the ninth quarterback off the board after finishing last season second in fantasy points and third in consistency among quarterbacks. After finishing as a QB1 option in 12 of his past 13 seasons, tallying six top-five finishes in the process, there's no reason to discount Brady in 2016.
13. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Rivers led the NFL in completions and attempts last season. That's most definitely not what the Chargers want to see in 2016. And despite his high-volume of pass attempts, Rivers still finished the 2015 season as a bottom-rung QB1 option. With more balance on offense this upcoming season, it's hard to value Rivers as anything more than a top-end QB2 in 12-team leagues.
14. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
Despite missing two games to injury last season, Taylor still finished as a top end QB2 in his first year as a starter in the NFL. Adding 568 rushing yards and four scores on the ground surely did help here. In fact, it enabled him to finish seventh among quarterbacks in consistency. With a plethora of weapons to rely on and a year of starting experience under his belt, we like that Taylor offers here. That's only magnified by the fact that he's currently being valued as a 12th-round pick.
15. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Outside of injuries, the biggest takeaway from Mariota's rookie season was his inability to do much on the ground. The former Heisman winner raked up just 252 rushing yards. WithDeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry expected to perform at high levels in the backfield, the expectation here is that defenses won't be able to hone in on Mariota's rushing ability as much in 2016. If so, those numbers should increase.
From a passing perspective, there's a ton of upside here. Mariota averaged 235 passing yards and nearly two touchdowns per game last season. Minimal increases here would make him a potential bottom-end QB1 option.
Running Backs
1. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
How good was Johnson as a rookie? The dude put up 1,038 yards and 12 scores on just 161 touches. That was good enough for him to finish as the ninth-best fantasy running back. With Arizona now planning on him taking over a bulk of the load on the ground, we can expect upwards of 350 touches in 2016. If that's the case, Johnson could very well be looking at 2,000-plus total yards and 15-plus touchdowns. That'd make him the top fantasy running back most seasons.
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
There's newer blood out there. Maybe even sexier options. And in reality, Peterson is not a PPR stud. None of that matters. He's a future Hall of Famer that's finished in the top eight among running backs in each of the eight seasons he's played, including six top-three finishes. Last season alone, Peterson league highs in attempts (327), rushing yards (1,485) and rushing touchdowns (11). That was good enough for him to finish as the second-best PPR fantasy running back. Expect much of the same in 2016.
3. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
We're going out on a limb here. Elliott hasn't even attempt a run in a regular season game, and we have him as the third-best fantasy running back heading into the season? Really? Well, there's a lot more to look at here than simply what he brings to the table. The Cowboys offensive line remains the best in the game. After helping DeMarco Murray to the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year award two seasons ago, the Cowboys line helped the team finish last season as the ninth-best fantasy running back. The team averaged 4.6 yards per rush as well. This came with Darren McFadden leading the charge and absolutely no passing game to speak of without Tony Romo under center. Elliott should absolutely dominate in 2016.
4. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Despite missing the first three games of his rookie season, Gurley finished as the seventh-best fantasy running back. Just think about that. As a rookie, the dude put up nearly 1,300 total yards and 10 scores in 13 games. He did this with the league's worst passing attack behind him. Should that area improve, the Rams won't see defenses stack the box against the run. This will open up more holes for Gurley to run through. With what promises to be a larger workload as a sophomore, that will lead to dominant fantasy production.
5. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
You're definitely taking a chance on injuries here. Charles has played in five games or less twice in the past five seasons. An ACL injury kept him out for all but five games a season ago. Still, when Charles is on the field, he's absolutely dominating. The three years he's been healthy during this span, Charles finished as a top-two running back twice. With Alex Smithstill under center, the Chiefs will be relying on Charles a great deal. Look for like production this season.
6. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Bell would likely rank first on this list if he weren't suspended for the first three games of the season. However, that represents nearly 20 percent of the games Pittsburgh will play this season. Simple math drops him down a notch here. Though, Bell's overall performance over the past two seasons suggests he should make up most of the ground. Prior to going down with a season-ending injury last year, Bell was in the midst of a 22-game stretch that saw him tally over 2,900 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those are some absurd numbers right there. Still a top-10 overall pick, don't avoid Bell in the first round simply because of those first three games.
7. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Martin finished third among running backs in fantasy points (PPR) last season. Overall, he talllied nearly 1,700 total yards with seven scores. What drops him down a tad on this list was his inability to stand out in the passing game last season. Martin put up just 33 receptions for 271 yards. Overall, he's tallied just 107 catches in four NFL seasons. It's also important to note that Martin had tallied less than 1,000 combined rushing yards in his previous two seasons leading up to last year. With Jameis Winston looking to take over on offense, we had to drop Martin down a notch here.
8. Le'Sean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Now that Karlos Williams has been released, it's readily apparent that Buffalo is going to drive McCoy into the ground this season. After all, his primary backup is now the washed up Reggie Bush. During McCoy's injury-plagued first season with the Bills, he still found a way to to finish as the 15th-best PPR running back despite putting up just 203 rush attempts. Expecting McCoy to reach 300-plus in 2016, there's no reason to believe he won't be a top-10 back.
9. Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
The Miami Dolphins simply didn't have a plan for Miller last season. Here's a guy that finished as the sixth-best PPR running back despite putting up 10 or fewer rushing attempts in nearly half of his games last season. Now in Bill O'Brien's running back friendly system with the Texans, that shouldn't be a problem. There's no reason to believe Miller won't tally 250-plus rush attempts this season. If that's the case, he'll be a RB1 option. Though, he's also dropped down a notch here, with the primary reason for that being a lack of sample size. Miller has yet to run the ball more than 216 times in a single season. We need to see how he'll handle an increased workload before ranking him among fantasy football's best.
10. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Ingram has almost as many receptions last season (50) as he had in his first four years in the NFL (53). That made the former first-round pick a RB1 option in PPR leagues. This despite the fact that he missed four games to injuries. All said, a player that was once considered a bust, Ingram has etched out a nice little role in New Orleans. He's tallied nearly 2,300 total yards and 15 scores over the past two seasons.
11. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
It's important to remember that Hyde was a top-five fantasy running back before suffering a foot injury in October. That was during Hyde's first season as San Francisco's featured back. Now, in a Chip Kelly system that's friendly to running backs, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hyde put up RB1 numbers this season. He's looked stellar during the preseason and fits what Kelly likes to do. And while Hyde has just 27 receptions in two NFL seasons, the expectation here has to be that he'll be more of a receiving threat under Kelly.
12. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Lacy may still be a tad overweight, but he's looked darn good during the preseason. That's great news for a Packers team that's definitely going to be relying on him for 250-plus attempts this season. It also bodes well for Lacy's ability to rebound after a substandard 2015 season that saw him finish as the 26th-best fantasy running back. This came on the heels of Lacy finishing in the top six in each of his first two seasons. Expect RB1 production here.
13. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Freeman may have finished as the top PPR back last season, but that's a tad misleading. 48 percent of his fantasy points came in just four games. From Week 13-16, when the fantasy football season is at its height, he put up RB2 numbers. Though, Freeman himself did rank No. 1 overall in fantasy consistency. That's the good thing. Unfortunately, Atlanta's plan to use second-year running back Tevin Coleman more this season could really hurt Freeman's fantasy impact.
14. Matt Forte, New York Jets
We are not going to drop Forte down too much here simply because he's no longer on the Chicago Bears. That would be utterly foolish. After finishing as a top-10 fantasy running back in five of his eight seasons with the Bears, Forte heads to a Jets team that boasts a much better offensive line and a vastly superior passing game. If you don't think that will make an impact, we're not too sure what to tell you. What we do know is that Forte still put up nearly 1,300 total yards, finishing as the eighth-best fantasy running back, despite missing three games a season ago.
15. Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks
A broken ankle Rawls suffered late last season put an end to what was an astonishingly good rookie campaign. With Marshawn Lynch banged up all season, the un-drafted rookie free agent put up over 900 total yards while averaging a league-best 5.6 yards per attempt. With Lynch now in retirement, Rawls should see an increased work load. Unfortunately, the young back has not (and will not) play during the preseason due to said injury. THat drops him down a notch here.
16. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
Anderson is an enigma. He was being relied on to be a top-five fantasy running back last season. Unfortunately, a horrendous start to the season left many questions about him. When all was said and done, Anderson finished as the 32nd-best PPR RB. That's a disappointment many can't get over heading into the 2016 campaign. It's also one of the primary reasons we can't value him as a RB1 in these rankings. Adding to the intrigue, rookie running back Devontae Booker has looked tremendous during the summer. If you have to rely on Anderson, make sure it's as nothing more than a mid-tier RB2 option in 12-team leagues.
17. DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
Murray will be the starter in Tennessee this season. How much he's used is the bigger question. Coming off a disastrous season with the Philadelphia Eagles, Murray will now face competiiton from reigning Heisman winner Derrick Henry. That's no small thing when looking at what the former NFL Offensive Player of the Year brings to the table from a fantasy perspective.
18. Arian Foster, Miami Dolphins
Foster should be the Dolphins starting running back this season. It just remains to be seen whether he's going to remain healthy. Here's a dude that's missed over 50 percent of his team's games over the past three seasons. Getting up there in age and coming off an Achilles injury, we simply don't know what to expect here. What we do know is that Foster has been among the most-productive running backs in league history when healthy. Here's a guy that's finished in the top five among fantasy running backs in each of the past four full seasons he's played.
19. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
We're hoping Bernard gets more play than Jeremy Hill this season. One can be a difference maker on the football field. The other seems to be nothing more than stuck in the mud. If that's the case, our No. 19 ranking for Bernard may prove to be low. Unfortunately, the Bengals are still looking to deploy a committee approach here. That's going to impact Bernard's fantasy output. Though, here's a guy that's put up 1,000-plus total yards and at least 43 receptions in each of the three seasons he's been in the NFL.
20. Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders
Murray wasn't consistent last season. That's the biggest issue we have with him. Despite finishing as a RB1 option, Murray finished as a mid-tier RB2 in terms of consistency. With the Raiders ability to dominate through the air and some more competition at running back, it will be interesting to see how this turns out. At this point, we're not comfortable with anything more than a mid-tier RB2 option.
Wide Receivers
1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
This should almost go without saying. The top fantasy wide receiver in 2015 is heading into an even better situation for 2016. Martavis Bryant is out for the season, Sammie Coates and Markus Wheaton are battling for the number two position, and Ladarius Green is fighting mysterious health issues. Brown has the potential to see 140-150 receptions and could break records this year. This is a no-brainer.
2. Odell Beckham Jr, New York Giants
The real debate starts when you try to decide between Beckham and Julio Jones. I went with Beckham because he has a quarterback who was able to finish top five in both passing yards and touchdowns in 2015 (Eli Manning). Beckham is on a team that is poised to keep being pass-first and doesn’t have a clear cut running attack either. Beckham’s potential may not have been reached yet and could continue to get better in his third season.
3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
A man who had the most receiving yards (1,871) and was tied for most receptions (136) is not one to be trifled with. Jones had a career year in 2015 and will continue to be a fantasy football superstar in 2016. There is some reason to believe he hit his ceiling as the team has upgraded at their number two wide receiver position with Mohamed Sanu along with the fact that the Falcons may run the ball more with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman this year. Make no mistake though, Julio is a top three wide receiver.
4. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
A personal favorite of mine, I like Green’s upside this year. Finishing as the eighth best wide receiver in 2015, Green may have more targets coming his way. Both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu have left, Tyler Eifert is coming back from surgery and Brandon LaFell is now dealing with a torn ligament in his hand. Also, having Andy Dalton back after missing a large chunk of the 2nd half of 2015 will be a big help. Green could take the next step this year with less competition around him for targets.
5. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Coming off a superstar performance in 2015, Hopkins is poised to have another big year in 2016. He has a new quarterback in Brock Osweiler, which should provide some stability after playing with multiple in 2015. But, the team also invested heavily in Lamar Miller, who could enable the team to run the ball more this year. Also, the Texans drafted Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in this past NFL Draft, who could steal some targets away. Along with Jaelen Strong looking ready to step up as a contributor as well. Hopkins is the clear-cut number one wide receiver there, but may see a small dip in his numbers this season.
6. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Bryant played less than one full game in 2015 before going down with a foot injury that required surgery. He did return later in the season, but was clearly hobbled still. Now that 2016 is here and he is practicing fully, Bryant is in line for a major bounce-back season. Not to mention the return of Tony Romo as well, Bryant will take his place as the number one wide receiver on the Cowboys. His potential is sky-high as this offense with rookie running Ezekiel Elliott could be very good in 2016. Bryant should be back to his normal self as a top eight wide receiver in 2016.
7. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
A break-out player from 2015 in which we saw him tie for the most receiving touchdowns (14) along with the sixth most receiving yards (1,400), Robinson finally emerged as a top fantasy wide-out. With the Jaguars offense hopefully ready to take another step forward with third year quarterback Blake Bortles, Robinson will be a key factor. He continues to get better and will be Bortles’ number one target as we could see him surpass the 80 reception total he had in 2015. He is a sure-fire top ten wide receiver in fantasy.
8. Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
Allen was on a tear in 2015 before going down with a kidney injury during week eight. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen was the number four overall wide receiver in PPR. While his torrid pace (67 receptions, 725 yards, four touchdowns) was probably impossible to sustain (would’ve been 134 receptions, 1,450 yards and eight touchdowns over full season), he clearly was doing well and should go right back to being the number one wide receiver for Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Allen has had issues with staying healthy (missed 11 games in three seasons), but if he can play for a full season, he could have a top 10 season on the horizon.
9. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans came into 2015 with a lot of hype surrounding his sophomore season. While he still finished as a low-end WR2 (23th best wide receiver in PPR), he disappointed based on where he was being drafted (9th overall in PPR re-draft leagues, MyFantasyLeague). Evans still had 74 receptions with 1,206 yards but faltered in touchdowns (had three in 2015, 12 in 2014). Evans also dealt with drops and developing chemistry with rookie quarterbackJameis Winston. Evans is expected to bounce-back in 2016 with another year under his belt alongside Winston and could easily have a top 10 season in him.
10. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
While Nelson did not play last season and is approaching the age where wide receivers start to decline (turned 31 in May), Nelson appears ready to return to fantasy dominance. Having just come off the PUP list after he suffered an ACL tear in 2015, Nelson will be all systems go for week one. He will return to his usual post as Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted target and could easily have a 2013 type of season (85 receptions, 1,314 yards, eight touchdowns). Though his age and slow recovery are a tad concerning, Nelson should be viewed as a safe pick to do well in 2016.
11. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
Very talented albeit a walking injury waiting to happen, Jeffery is a very high risk/high reward type of player. He is coming off of a season in 2015 where only managed to play in nine games while fighting multiple nagging lower-body injuries. He still did manage to have 54 receptions, 807 yards and four touchdowns, which would’ve made him on pace for 96 receptions, 1,434 yards and seven touchdowns over a full season. He will be a great position in 2016 to bounce back if he can stay healthy despite Kevin White being ready to contribute as well.
12. Brandon Marshall, New York Jets
In his first season with the Jets after being traded from the Bears for a late round draft pick, Marshall showed his former team what they were missing out on. He finished as the third best wide receiver in PPR leagues for 2015 with 109 receptions, 1,509 yards and 14 touchdowns. Even as he comes into his age 32 season, Marshall is showing no signs of slowing down. There is bound to be some regression as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t expected to throw for 3,900+ yards and 31 touchdowns again in 2015. Also, new running back Matt Forte is expected to steal a handful of targets away as well. Regardless, Marshall is a solid bet to be a WR1 again in 2016 as the number one wide receiver for the Gang Green.
13. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
On the surface, Cooper had a terrific rookie season with 72 receptions, 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. But Cooper faltered late in the season as he finished with 10 receptions, 150 yards and two touchdowns over his last four games in 2015. But as he comes into his sophomore season, Cooper is expected to improve on his great rookie season with quarterback Derek Carr. Cooper is oozing with playmaking ability and is a future WR1. But the team may not be forced to throw as much with an improved defense and a great offensive line to run behind. Regardless, Cooper should turn in a top 15 wide receiver season and continue to improve.
14. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Hilton still put up a respectable 2015 despite dealing with Andrew Luck having a poor 2015 between bad play and injury (69 receptions, 1,124 yards, five touchdowns). When Luck had his terrific 2014 season, Hilton benefited greatly (82 receptions, 1,345 yards, seven touchdowns). Now that Luck is back and healthy, expect Hilton to put up stats closer to 2014 than 2015. He will resume his post as the team’s number one wide receiver. He will receive pressure from the emerging Donte Moncrief, but Hilton should be locked in for a top 15 season regardless.
15. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Despite dealing with very turbulent quarterback play from Peyton Manning and Osweiler in 2015, Thomas still finished as the 11th best wide receiver in PPR leagues. He had his fourth consecutive season with at least 90 receptions (105) to go along with 1,304 yards and six touchdowns. His yardage and touchdown totals are the lowest in the past four seasons, but part of it can be blamed on the quarterback play. But in 2016, Thomas and the Broncos are faced with another quarterback debacle between Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian. Regardless of who is throwing to him, Thomas will finish as a solid top 20 wide receiver at worst as the Broncos number one receiver.
16. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
This ranking is a bit lower than most who have ranked Cooks, but it’s hard to trust him 100%. He did finish as the 13th best wide receiver in PPR for 2015, but was inconsistent. He was the 20th best wide receiver through the first half of the season while finishing 12th for the second half. He will be Drew Brees’ number one target again in 2016 on a very dangerous passing offense, but has a LOT of competition for targets. Willie Snead, Mark Ingram, Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas will all challenge for looks. Because of that, Cooks should finish as a top 20 wide receiver, but I wouldn’t be prepared to treat him as a top 15.
17. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
When Jordy Nelson went down with his knee injury last season, Cobb was expected to step up and be the new number one wide receiver for the Packers. Unfortunately, Cobb faltered and finished below expectations as the 25th best wide receiver in PPR. But with Nelson back and the run game hopefully improved, Cobb stands to benefit from this. He is a player I’m quite high on and he could easily surpass this ranking. In 2014 (when both Cobb & Nelson played last), Cobb had 91 receptions, 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns. There is reason to believe he could have a very similar season to that in 2016 with the “gang all back together” (i.e. Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb and Eddie Lacy).
18. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills
Another player like Cobb, who I think can out-perform this ranking, Watkins finished off 2015 with a bang as the fourth best wide receiver in PPR over the second half of the season. Unfortunately, he dealt with some injuries during the first half that caused him to rank as the 84th (yes, 8-4) best wide receiver over the first half of the season. Watkins is also coming off of foot surgery and has dealt with multiple lower body injuries/surgeries in his short time at the NFL level. A superstar when healthy and on the field, Watkins is a high risk/high reward player who will undoubtedly be the number one target for Tyrod Taylor, but will be a constant worry for owners with his injury history.
19. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Another high risk/high reward player, Edelman was on a good pace before he went down with a foot injury (61 receptions, 692 yards, seven touchdowns in nine games) that cost him the rest of the regular season. He had two surgeries on it and had an injury scare during training camp recently, reminding everyone that he will be someone to monitor. A stud when on the field, Edelman’s inability to stay healthy (only one season playing all 16 games in seven seasons) will cause him to slide down rankings for fantasy football. Besides Gronk, Edelman is Tom Brady’s most trusted target and will garner a ton of looks from him when on the field. But how many games he’ll play, is another story. He could have a top 15 season, or top 30 season.
20. Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins
A reception-vacuum, Landry finished with 110 last season and has 194 overall in his first two seasons. Landry’s value is boosted big time in PPR leagues and will look to have another 80+ reception season in 2016. He will face competition for targets with the emergingDeVante Parker and new running back Arian Foster, but should still be a lock for around 90 receptions. His career 9.9 yards per reception total and nine touchdowns over two seasons will work against him, but Landry is still a PPR dynamo. With Adam Gase as the team’s new head coach, the Dolphins could boast a stronger offense in 2016, which would benefit Landry. Keep him in mind come draft day, PPR drafters.
Tight Ends
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
This shouldn’t be surprising. Not only is Gronk the best tight end in football, he is the best tight end in fantasy football as well. Finishing last year as the best tight end in PPR leagues with 255.6 points (17 points per game average), he led all tight ends in receiving yards (1,176), yards per reception (16.3) and tied for the second-most touchdowns (11). Gronk is coming into 2016 with the chance to have a monster start as Jimmy Garoppolo’s “safety blanket” for the first four games. Gronk is the unquestioned No. 1 tight end in fantasy football.
2. Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
Despite only playing in 14 games in 2015, Jordan Reed was fantasy football’s third best tight end in PPR leagues. He led all PPR tight ends in average points per game (17.4) and tied Gronk for second most touchdowns (11). A dynamic playmaker who is a match-up nightmare, Reed’s only drawback is his inability to stay healthy. Before 2015, Reed had only managed to play 20 out of a possible 32 games. Reed is a very high-risk/high-reward player but could threaten to finish with even more points in 2016.
3. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
Last year’s number five tight end in fantasy football, Olsen stepped up after the Panthers lost Kelvin Benjamin and had a monster season with over 225 points in PPR. He played in all 16 games and had the second most receiving yards to Gronk. Despite Benjamin being back and Devin Funchess being a possible sleeper, I believe Olsen has a better 2016 as their main red-zone threat and chain-mover. The Panthers are one running back injury away from starting Mike Tolbert. This team will throw a solid amount in 2016 and Olsen will benefit.
4. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
Last year’s number two tight end in PPR leagues, Walker was a man on a mission with Tennessee. Finishing just over ten points behind Gronk, Walker was a stud in 2015. I expect him to be Marcus Mariota’s main target in 2016 but there is reason for some regression. His 94 receptions are going to be hard to replicate, the team added some depth at wide receiver with Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews, and new head coach Mike Mularkey seems set on running the ball more. Walker will be a top five tight end again in 2015, but don’t be expecting the same stat-line again this season.
5. Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns
The man, the myth, the legend. Gary Barnidge came out of nowhere in 2015 to have over 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in 2015. Finishing as the fourth best tight end in PPR leagues last year, Barnidge had a breakout season. And there is reason to believe he could do just as well in 2016. With new head coach Hue Jackson at the helm (who was fellow breakout Tyler Eifert’s offensive coordinator in 2015), Barnidge will be heavily featured in the offense as a solid short-to-intermediate target and the top red zone target for the Browns.
6. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Finishing as the eighth best tight end in 2015 for PPR, Kelce had another solid season. He was inconsistent however, as he was the 3rd best tight end through the first half of the season (weeks one-eight) and the 15th best tight end in the second half (weeks nine-seventeen). He is going to have big weeks and he’ll have his bad weeks as well on a very run-oriented team. He’ll have another great season overall most likely, but I wouldn’t call him a top five tight end in 2016 as this team is built to run the ball more so then pass it.
7. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz was the ninth best tight end in 2015 for PPR and there is a lot of hype surrounding him for 2016. Signing a huge contract extension this offseason, Ertz could be finally ready to live up to the hype for once. The Eagles have been running a lot of three tight end sets in practice, which means we will see Ertz on the field plenty. He is also their best red-zone threat and has earned the trust of quarterback Sam Bradford. He could finish as a top six tight end this year in this Eagles offense.
8. Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints
The big free agent acquisition from the Colts over the off-season, the Saints invested a lot of money in Coby Fleener over the next five years. After letting Benjamin Watson go in free agency and trading Jimmy Graham last off-season, the Saints believe they have their new long-term solution at tight end. On arguably the most pass-friendly offense in the league, Fleener has a lot of upside. But he shouldn’t be trusted as more than a top-eight tight end at best until he actually starts playing in this offense.
9. Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars
After missing the first four weeks of the 2015 season due to a hand injury, Thomas finished as the 11th-best tight end in PPR from Weeks 5-17 last season. On the Jaguars team that boasts a potentially up-and-coming quarterback, two very good wide receivers and two solid running backs, Thomas won’t be the focal point of the offense. But he will be a good target in the short-to-intermediate game and continue to be a strong presence in the red zone. He has top-10 tight end upside on an ascending passing offense.
10. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
A prime candidate to surpass this ranking, Eifert is this low on my list due to his current injury/surgery predicament. He suffered an ankle injury at the Pro Bowl and had surgery in May on it. He is expected to miss at least the first game of the season and potentially more. In 13 games last season, Eifert did have 13 touchdowns, so he carries a ton of upside. On a Bengals team that lost their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers in free agency (Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu), Eifert would be no less than the number three target on this team. His health is what is holding him back, but is an absolute fantasy freak when on the field.
11. Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots
The second Patriots tight end on this list, Bennett was acquired by New England over the off-season from the Bears. Bennett had an off year in 2015 (53/439/3) but has a lot of upside with the Patriots. They have facilitated two great fantasy tight ends before (Gronk with He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named) and could be primed to do it again. The Patriots will run a lot of two tight end sets, making sure that Bennett is on the field a bunch. He will be a very welcome target in the red-zone and in the intermediate passing game. He has top 10 upside with the Patriots.
12. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
Even at age 36, Gates is still a very reliable fantasy football tight end. In 2015, Gates had the 7th best points per game average in PPR after missing four games due to suspension and dealing with a knee injury that bugged him most of the second half of the season. He re-signed with the Chargers in the off-season and will be back to be a main target yet again for San Diego. He has stayed healthy during the off-season and will once again be Philip Rivers’ most trusted target in 2016. He has double digit touchdown upside and should be treated as a low-end TE1 for the upcoming season.
13. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts
Now that Coby Fleener is gone, Dwayne Allen has a chance to stand out once again for the Colts. He was signed to a large contract in the off-season and has already been publically promised a larger role by offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. While Allen has only had one season where he played all 16 games, he did manage to snag eight touchdowns in 2014 while only playing 13 games. Allen is a sleeper for double digit touchdowns in 2016 as the unquestioned starting tight end and with quarterback Andrew Luck back. Staying healthy will be Allen’s biggest hurdle, not his role.
14. Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
After being drafted 10th overall in 2014 NFL Draft, Ebron has had high expectations to live up to. Unfortunately, he is still developing and hasn’t fully turned into the “next big thing” at tight end at fantasy football. But with Calvin Johnson retired and the running game in flux, this could be Ebron’s chance to breakout. He is fighting to be the team’s number three/four target in the pass game and main target in the red-zone. He could have a chance to finish as a top 10 tight end this season.
15. Zach Miller, Chicago Bears
While it only being a small sample size, from weeks 14-17 in 2015, Zach Miller was the eighth best tight end in PPR leagues. That isn’t even mentioning that Miller only played in three of those games and had the fourth best points per game average over the span as well. Martellus Bennett went on injured reserve following week 13 and that is when Miller had his time to shine. Re-signed by the Bears during the off-season, Miller is the undoubted starting tight end and could have a big impact in 2016 as the team’s number three target. He has had issues staying healthy in the past but if he can stay healthy, Miller has a chance to finish as a low-end TE1 in 2016.
16. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
If nothing else, Witten is reliable. He hasn’t missed a game in 12 seasons and even managed 77 receptions last season while without Tony Romo for most of it. Witten is now 34 years old and not as dynamic as he used to be, but he is still a very dependable target for Romo and the Cowboys. He finished as the 10th best tight in 2015 for PPR and has the chance to have another TE1 season. Witten is a strong candidate to surpass his ranking here and actually is somewhat of a sleeper in 2016.
17. Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks
Once competing with Gronk as the best tight end in fantasy football, Graham had a rough 2015. Finishing with less than 85 receptions for the first time in six seasons (48), Graham suffered a major knee injury and was forced to undergo surgery while missing the rest of the season. He has surprisingly come off the physically unable to perform (PUP) list already and is on track to play week one right now. It is a remarkable recovery, but Graham is unlikely to have a big impact regardless behind Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Draft him with modest expectations.
18. Clive Walford, Oakland Raiders
Despite only snagging 28 receptions and three touchdowns in 2015, Walford is poised to improve on those stats in 2016. On a team with an emerging quarterback, two very solid if not better wide receivers and a much improved offensive line, Walford may seem to be out of the picture but actually isn’t. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave recently says that he wants Walford to “be a big part of what we do”. This Raiders offense could be deadly in 2016 and Walford could have somewhat of a breakout in 2016.
19. Vance McDonald, San Francisco 49ers
A fourth year player out of Rice University, Vance McDonald hasn’t done much up until this point. But with new head coach Chip Kelly and his high-volume offense in town now, that could change very quickly. On a team with very minimal wide receiver depth that will be forced to throw the ball a lot due to a below-average defense, McDonald could be headed towards a breakdown in 2016. He seems to have a solid rapport with assumed starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert and is a solid receiver in the pass game. McDonald not only has the chance to be a top 20 tight end, but potentially even a top 12 one as well.
20. Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of my favorite free agent signings when it comes to fantasy football, Ladarius Green is/was supposed to be a huge part of this high-powered Steelers offense. But as he is dealing with ankle and supposedly headache issues, there have been reports that Green may be forced to retire. There is still a chance that Green just needs more time to recover and could come back later in 2016. On a team with one of the best passing attacks in the game, Green has the chance to explode in 2016 but may not get to. He is nearly undraftable right now but his upside is very hard to ignore on the off chance he plays a lot in 2016.