Over the course of the NFL season, there are clearly players who perform far more consistently each game than others when it comes to passing yards and passing touchdowns. In my recent eDraft article I evaluated which quarterbacks performed most consistently in 2013, using a consistency metric tool.
This article will review the five quarterbacks who were the farthest from being 100% consistent last season based on passing yards and touchdowns thrown per game. It is very likely that you had one of these quarterbacks on your fantasy football team, and his lack of passing yards and/or touchdowns might have put a damper on your fantasy points at any given week.
Upon using eDraft’s premium consistency tool, and adjusting it to various metrics for both passing yards and passing touchdowns, I have come to the conclusion that the five most inconsistent quarterbacks who played in all 16 of their season games in 2013 were, Geno Smith, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.
The consistency tool ranks the quarterbacks in its default setting of passing for a minimum of 300 yards and/or throwing two touchdown passes during each game he played. As the tool is customizable, it can be changed to rank the quarterbacks on an easier scale, say throwing for a minimum of 150 yards per game and passing one touchdown, to the most difficult ranking for passing 400 yards per game and throwing three touchdowns.
Based on 100% being the most consistent a quarterback can perform each week, the five above-mentioned quarterbacks performances were extremely far from 100% last year no matter how the setting of the metrics tool was adjusted. Remember to keep in mind I’m speaking of quarterbacks who played all 16 games, versus quarterbacks like E.J. Manuel, or Brandon Weeden.
Here are some examples of the quarterbacks consistency percentages based on various metrics. Note that the either column number means that either the minimum pass yards and/or minimum touchdowns were thrown, based on the numbers you set the metric.
In the default setting, of passing for 300 yards and/or throwing two touchdowns, this is Smith’s percentage of consistency for the season. You can see he only met this criteria in a total of three of his 16 games.
Geno Smith | Consistency | 300+pass | 325+pass | 1+TD | 2+TD | 3+TD | Either |
| 19% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Setting the metric at an easier consistency setting of 200 passing yards and/or two passing touchdowns, per game, Kaepernick’s percentage of consistency ranks at a mere 50%.
Colin Kaepernick | Consistency | 200+pass | 225+pass | 1+TD | 2+TD | 3+TD | Either |
| 50% | 6 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 8 |
If you want to adjust the metric to the toughest criteria of passing 400 yards and/or throwing three touchdowns per game, Manning doesn’t fair too well only accomplishing these standards in six percent of his games. However, the other Manning brother, Peyton Manning ranked most consistent at 69%, so you can see the vast range of inconsistency for Eli.
Eli Manning | Consistency | 400+pass | 425+pass | 1+TD | 2+TD | 3+TD | Either |
| 6% | 1 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Placing the metric scale at a minimum of 225 passing yards and/or three passing touchdowns shows that Newton was consistent just 50% of his games using these numbers. For comparison purposes, Drew Brees was 94% consistent using these figures.
Cam Newton | Consistency | 225+pass | 250+pass | 1+TD | 2+TD | 3+TD | Either |
| 50% | 6 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
Lastly, to take a look at Wilson, using the metric set at 300 passing yards and/or three touchdowns, he only achieved these numbers in 25% of his games, compared to Peyton Manning at 81%.
Russell Wilson | Consistency | 300+pass | 325+pass | 1+TD | 2+TD | 3+TD | Either |
| 25% | 2 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
So, now you can see how vastly flexible eDraft’s consistency metrics tool is and the multiple ways it can be utilized for analyzing the overall or fantasy football consistency performance for all of the quarterbacks, as well as all other offensive postions. Visit eDraft.com to check out this tool and the many other ranking and analysis features this site has to offer.