Aaron Hernandez and Vernon Davis were two of the most disappointing fantasy performers from a season ago. Most of their lack of success was completely out of their hands. Hernandez missed six games due to injury and Davis was utilized more as a decoy/blocker than a receiver.
That being said, the indicators are there for both to have a tremendous fantasy season in 2013. Hernandez appears to be healthy and will be a bigger target for Tom Brady in the Patriots’ passing game. Meanwhile, Davis will get a ton more targets than he received last season; especially with the Achilles injury that Michael Crabtree suffered.
Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots
Hernandez was targeted an average of 10 times per game in 2013. He came down with 64 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. Those numbers went up considerably when Rob Gronkowski went down with injury.
He was targeted an average of 14 times per game between weeks 13 and 15. During that span, Hernandez hauled in 26 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Great numbers for any league, but elite PPR production more than anything else.
With questions marks surrounding the health of Gronkowski, it appears that Hernandez will see similar target numbers as what we saw when Gronk was out last season. In addition, the loss of Wes Welker in free agency to the Denver Broncos indicates that Hernandez will be relied on heavily. With all the factors working against him last season, Hernandez still finished as a top-tier TE2 option, according to eDraft’s official rankings. Expect him to take advantage of an increased role and up those numbers considerably in 2013.
Projected Statistics: 80 receptions, 950 yards and seven touchdowns
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
There were some alarming numbers as it relates to Davis’ fantasy production this past season. Once Alex Smith went out with injury and was replaced by Colin Kaepernick, Davis saw his numbers take a turn in the wrong direction. He saw a total of 11 targets in the final six games of the regular season. During that span, Davis put up a total of 6.10 fantasy points. That’s obviously not going to get it done.
This doesn’t mean that Davis wasn’t one of the best all-around tight ends in the NFL last season. It just indicates that Kaepernick struggled finding his talented tight end between the hashes and down the field.
That changed in the postseason. Davis averaged 6.3 targets per game in the playoffs. He put up over 100 receiving yards in both the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. In total, Davis averaged 7.13 fantasy points during the postseason. That would have placed him as the sixth-best fantasy tight end over the course of a 16-game schedule.
It’s also important to note that Davis did catch over 70 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. That ranked him fifth among regular tight ends in that category.
Of course you already know about the unfortunate injury suffered by San Francisco’s No. 1 wide receiver Michael Crabtree. What might end up hurting the 49ers a great deal in the long run will definitely help Davis’ fantasy production.
Including the postseason, Crabtree was targeted 80 times over the course of the last 10 games. Extrapolated over the course of a 16-game schedule that would have made Crabtree the fifth-most targeted receiver in the NFL.
While the addition of Anquan Boldin should counteract Crabtree’s absence to an extent, Kaepernick will need to focus on Davis a lot more in 2013. I am not expecting double-digit targets per game, but something to the tune of eight per outing makes sense. Given Davis’ high reception percentage, this should make him a solid TE1 option this upcoming season.
Projected Statistics: 83 receptions, 1,080 yards and eight touchdowns
In Comparison
As you can see above, we are projecting Davis to have a slightly better fantasy output. As it is, both of these players will be solid TE1 options in standard leagues. In addition, they will actually be among the best PPR tight ends in the league.
Our projections for Davis would have ranked him No. 1 among tight ends in receiving yards last season. As it relates to Hernandez, he would have ranked third in that category.
We may be over playing our hand a little bit here, but the indicators and markers are there for both Hernandez and Davis to have breakout fantasy seasons. Don’t go high with Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Instead, sit back and pick up one of these two talented tight ends later.