When drafting for fantasy football, it used to be the norm to try to select a top-tier running back as your first selection. However, that trend may be fading as we compare the fantasy points of a top-tier or even mid-tier quarterback to those of top-to-mid ranging running backs.
We will look at the fantasy points scored in 2014 by both positions to delve further into how important drafting a top-rated running back is.
The top five highest scoring quarterbacks for 2014 were Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and wildcard Ben Roethlisberger who scored between 354 to 306 points for the 16 week season.
We can safely say that of those, Manning and Rodgers were likely drafted in the first round with Luck following soon after.
Looking at the top five scoring running backs, DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and Arian Foster their fantasy points ranged from 294 to 235 which is less than any of the above-mentioned quarterbacks.
With the exception of Foster and maybe even Murray who may have slipped to the second-round in the 2014 draft, the others surely were picked in the first round.
At this point, it would appear that selecting an upper-tier running back in the first round has paid off for most part. And, if anyone had the hindsight or luck to draft Murray, then stack your team before scrounging up Big Ben, you may actually have placed first in your fantasy league last year.
With that said, let’s look at the fantasy points of the mid-range scoring quarterbacks who were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady and you are reading this correctly, Eli Manning. They scored between 302 to 269 fantasy points for the season. There are definitely a couple of surprises in this bunch.
The next five mid-tier fantasy scoring running backs for 2014 presented us with even more surprises. Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller and Jeremy Hill scored between 230 to 183 fantasy points. As we can see, there is a major difference in the two ranges of fantasy points in the mid-tier level.
Are we missing a few names from the running back list? Where is LeSean McCoy? Or worse yet, where or who even remembers Montee Ball? While McCoy was the overall No. 1 pick by many, Ball was a major target as a first-round or early second-rounder himself. Perhaps you went for St. Louis Rams’ total bust Zac Stacy in round one. Ouch.
Additionally, how in the world did an undrafted guy like Forsett make his way into the top 10? Perhaps you selected Giovani Bernard only to be duped by his rookie backup Hill?
Overall in 2014, when we look at the top 20 highest scoring fantasy players, only three were running backs (Murray, Bell and Lynch). There was one wide receiver among the bunch and that was Antonio Brown. The other 16 were all quarterbacks, even including the likes of Jay Cutler.
Out of the top 40 fantasy leaders 10 were running backs.
While in 2014 a few running backs rewarded with the elite points for which they were drafted, such as Murray, Bell, Lynch and Forte, there were so many who disappointed as first or second round draft picks from last year. Whether it was an injury like Ball suffered, or just a whim for the team to switch gears as in the case of Stacy or an overall underperformance by McCoy, drafting a running back first last season brought more risk than reward to the table.
Comparing all variables when it came to running back busts and total surprise fantasy jackpots, it would appear waiting to draft a running back in the second round rather than reaching for one makes for a safer choice. Just like the Roethlisberger/Murray duo I mentioned above, one could have selected Rodgers waited on a running back, and ended up with Forsett off the waiver wire for another winning combo in 2014.