For the most part, the top-12 fantasy running backs (RB1’s, if you will) consist of the same core group of guys from year to year. But every year, there’s always a few players in the group that are fully capable of putting up RB1 numbers, but for whatever reason are a bigger risk to bust than others. Using My Fantasy League’s most up-to-date 12 team, standard scoring redraft league ADP, I’ve identified three players that are being drafted as part of the first-12 running backs off the board who are, to varying degrees, risky picks. Let’s take a look at who they are, how risky of a pick they are and if they’re worth the anxiety.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Lynch has been a sturdy, dependable workhorse since joining the Seattle Seahawks. But last year’s No. 4 fantasy running back is facing certain suspension after his second DUI-related results. Lynch is going to miss the first-four games of the season, which will impact his value. If he plays all 12 of the remaining regular-season games, Lynch will still rack up enough carries, receptions, yards and touchdowns to have high-end RB2 numbers. But you shouldn’t count on Lynch as your RB1 for the 2013 season, so steer clear while others are drafting him too high in the first round, if he falls to the second and you’ve already gotten your RB1, don’t hesitate for as second to scoop Lynch up as well.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
Johnson has fallen outside the top 12 of fantasy running backs in each of the last two seasons, which means he hasn’t been a RB1 option since 2010. Yet people are currently drafting Johnson as the last RB1, near the end of the second round and as high as sixth overall. This is putting a lot of faith in someone who has ran his mouth more than he’s ran on the field in recent years. Johnson is incredibly talented though, and the Titans did make moves to significantly strengthen their offensive line this offseason. Johnson has all the potential to move back into RB1 territory in 2013, but you should be very cautious when drafting him, and only take a chance if all the other RB1 options have already been drafted.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
Rice is the least risky on this list, as he’s put up consistent, top-10 RB1 numbers for the last four seasons and plays the biggest part in the Ravens’ offense. But recent news that Rice will now split the workload 50/50 with Bernard Pierce should have fantasy owners at least a bit concerned, yet Rice is still being drafted as the seventh running back, right around No. 8 overall and as high as the No. 1 pick. At this point it’s hard to know if the Ravens were serious about this plan, or if they’ll carry it out. If you can’t live without Rice (who even splitting carries would put up solid RB2 numbers) try drafting Pierce later and handcuffing them, which will allow you to get all the points you’d miss out on.