I’ll be the first to admit it: I was completely surprised that Knowshon Moreno didn’t get more interest in free agency. He’s had his injury issues in the past, but after his big year with the Denver Broncos, I expected Moreno to have several teams looking at him.
Eventually, the Miami Dolphins emerged as the lone team that really wanted Moreno, and already he’s sliding down on the depth chart after it was announced he’d need surgery on a left knee injury, which is keeping him out of camp.
This is actually good news for fantasy owners, though. Moreno’s stock is falling and is now the 33rd running back being drafted in fantasy (in 10-team leagues that puts him in the early ninth round), according to FantasyPros' ADP. This provides a great opportunity for fantasy owners to jump on him, because Moreno has great upside if he can stay healthy and be a top 20 (if not top 15) fantasy back, and here’s why.
The numbers
Let’s start by looking at the numbers Moreno has put up in his career. His rookie campaign, Moreno played in all 16 games, rushing for 947 yards and seven touchdowns. After that year, he was in and out of the lineup with various injuries, missing a combined 20 games in his next three years.
Then, after getting healthy again, he played in 16 games again last year and had a career year, going for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. Fantasy owners who pass on Moreno will chalk it up to the “Peyton Manning effect” of inflating the value of the players around him, and that it’s impossible to say that Moreno can duplicate those numbers in Miami.
With the Dolphins, Moreno will not score 10 touchdowns, their offense just isn’t that productive. But the yardage and scoring seven total touchdowns is definitely in sight. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last year with Manning as quarterback. In 2010, when Kyle Orton was his quarterback, Moreno averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Had he played in all 16 games, Moreno was on pace to rush for 958 yards and six touchdowns.
Moreno also had his best receiving year that season prior to 2013, catching 37 passes for 372 yards and three other touchdowns. That year he even averaged a yard more per catch than last year. Let’s also throw out the “Manning factor” by looking at recent production of his backs.
In his prime, Edgerrin James was a great back who complemented Manning, he wasn’t good just because Manning was there. In 2012, Manning’s first year in Denver, Moreno only played for half the year but averaged over 65 yards per game and a touchdown ever two games. The top back in Denver’s offense was Willis McGahee, who ranked 26th in the league in rushing and had just four touchdowns. Manning missed the 2011 season, and in 2010 with the Colts, Donald Brown and Joseph Addai finished 41st and 42nd, respectively, in rushing among all players. Combined, they would have been a 1,000-yard rusher but would have had just six rushing touchdowns.
In 2009, Addai was 22nd in the league in rushing and averaged less than four yards per carry. Manning obviously raises the play of the guys around him (Addai is out of the league now), but it’s not like he takes running backs and turns them into fantasy stars. Last year, Moreno ranked 13th among running backs in total touches (catches and carries), and still finished tied for fourth in our consistency rating (paid subscription required).
He also isn’t one of those backs who just picks up yardage in garbage time when the Broncos were ahead. The majority of his carries came in the second quarter of games, and he averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first, and 3.5 in the fourth.
The skill
Besides the numbers, Moreno is a much more skilled back than his new competition in Miami, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Let’s look at this play from Moreno’s game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 when he ran for 78 yards and a touchdown.
Despite Manning having a single back and three receivers, the Titans still have six men in the box, and their free safety is going to come up and help on this play once Manning hands the ball off.
Moreno runs off the left tackle and cuts back right, eventually making three different guys miss on tackles (the first missed tackler was the safety that came up). This is just one example that shows up on tape to show that Moreno is more than he’s getting credit for right now.
Denver did benefit from having a strong offensive line (something that isn’t as strong in Miami), but when holes weren’t there, Moreno had solid vision and could find his own holes, and was able to make quick cuts to get to them. He’s not going to juke anyone out, but he he’s just a smart player who protects the ball (he’s only lost six for his whole career).
Miller can’t cut nearly as fast as Moreno, and Thomas had six games last year when he averaged less than three yards per carry. Again, the Dolphins offensive line is a weak spot on that team, but they did improve it in the offseason by firing their offensive line coach, and signing Branden Albert, Jason Fox, Samuel Longo and Michael Philipp.
The opportunity
Finally, Moreno is worth a pick in fantasy drafts because of the opportunity in Miami. Again, this is all assuming he can stay healthy, but if he’s in the lineup, the Dolphins are a good fit for him. Part of Moreno’s fantasy success last year was receiving. He has nine career receiving touchdowns, and was targeted 74 times last year.
In 2012, when the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill had a running back who could catch the ball (Reggie Bush), he was targeted 52 times. Tannehill also prefers to check the ball down and take what the defense gives to him, which in some cases, is a short swing pass to the running back. He 294 of his 551 attempted passes traveled between just one and 10 yards. The Dolphins also only threw the ball in single-back or shotgun formations (literally, they didn’t throw a single pass in the I-formation).
All three of Moreno’s receiving touchdowns came in single-back formations, and he only had one attempt out of the I-formation in Denver last year. Last year, Miller and Thomas were both big fantasy names to look for in training camp, and neither of them panned out.
They’re not all of a sudden going to take precedent over Moreno, who shows more talent on the field. And at the spot he’s going in fantasy drafts now, there’s no reason to not take him.
-Note: All stats used were from ESPN unless otherwise noted