Earlier in the season I wrote an article focusing on Alex Smith as a possible QB1 option in standard fantasy leagues. At that point it was hard to imagine him being one of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, which would have to be the case for him to be a starter in 12-team leagues. Okay, now that we have figured out some basic math, lets take a look at where Smith stands through the first eight weeks and if he is a viable option moving forward.
The San Francisco 49ers have played three top 10 pass defenses in the form of the Detroit Lions, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. Smith has racked up 601 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions while compiling a quarterback rating of 119.5 and completing over 70 percent of his passes.
Does this translate to fantasy football production? Not really. Smith accumulated only 2.5 fantasy points against the Jets, while averaging a robust 20 points in the other two games. A lot of that had to do with the 49ers being so far ahead of the Jets that they went with the ground-and-pound relatively early. Still, you cannot afford that lack of production from your QB1 option.
That being said, you cannot argue with Smith’s production over the course of the last four weeks. Despite throwing three interceptions and struggling against a mediocre New York Giants pass defense in Week 6, Smith has the 10th most fantasy points among quarterbacks during that span.
Overall, Smith is first in completion percentage and fourth in quarterback rating. While those numbers don’t align to represent great fantasy numbers, they are indicators that he will be consistently good on a weekly basis. Surprisingly, the veteran quarterback is No. 3 in the NFL in first down percentage and in the top half of the league in passes over 20 yards. Both representing solid fantasy indicators.
One of the primary reasons Smith should, at the very least, be considered a possible QB1 or bye week replacement is his performance in the red zone this season. Nearly half of his red zone pass attempts have gone for touchdowns. For comparisons sake, about a third of Peyton Manning’s red zone attempts have gone for scores.
Of course we have to look at sample size and figure that in as well. Smith has attempted less than half the amount of passes inside the opponents 20 as Manning has. With that in mind, we are comparing him to the No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback, which isn’t a bad sign at all. Go further down on the list and the comparisons make even more sense.
By far the most important fantasy stat as it relates to the quarterback position is touchdown passes. This is where Smith compares very well to others. He is 10th in the NFL with 12 touchdowns this season, and sixth in the league in that category over the last four weeks...Not too shabby.
You can also expect Smith to limit his negative points moving forward. Outside of a disastrous three-interception performance against the New York Giants, he has thrown a total of seven interceptions over the course of his last 24 starts. When you can get that time of minimal mistakes from your QB1 option, you are doing damn good.
Moving Forward
San Francisco has a much easier road against pass defenses in the second half of the season. The New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins all rank in the bottom six of the NFL against the pass. Meanwhile, the likes of the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams, who the 49ers play two more games against, are in the bottom half of the league against the pass.
This is a far cry from a first half that, as I mentioned before, saw San Francisco go up against three top 10 pass defenses.
It is also important to take continuity and improvement in all aspects of the passing game into account here. Not only did Smith complete 18-of-19 attempts against the third-best pass defense in the NFL on the road on Monday Night Football, he found a new weapon. That weapon had been left unloaded over the first seven games of the season....Randy Moss.
As you might have noticed, the future Hall of Fame wide receiver played a lot on Monday in Arizona. While he only caught that one long touchdown pass, Moss had a major impact on the rest of the 49ers pass offense. He stretched the field, leaving Michael Crabtree in single coverage. What did Crabtree do to answer? Make one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Patrick Peterson, look utterly foolish. Look further into it and there is no reason to believe this won’t be the case moving forward.
San Francisco’s next six opponents leave a lot to be desired against the pass. Jim Harbaugh will attempt to utilize that to the 49ers’ advantage and scheme it into the game plan during their bye week. Expect them to come out fully loaded in the passing game and attempt to created more balance. If that is the case, Smith could be a golden fantasy quarterback option.
Of course it all comes down to who you have as your QB1 option. Individuals who own Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees probably didn’t need to read this article. Instead, I am talking about QB1 options that have failed to produce like many had expected at the start of the season.
Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Tony Romo were all considered QB1 values heading into the season by ESPN. Smith is currently ahead of both Romo and Vick in fantasy points and right behind both Stafford and Newton.
That pretty much says it all.